WeatherFeen2000 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 From what I noticed rgem is a great model just not this year. Also nam was the only model that got our blizzard right last year. I'll trust the nam especially since the sref'S are on board for at least advisory snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: I wouldn't trust any model with this setup since it is very complicated and I doubt the models are handling it well - look whats happening out west the precip is moving east faster then expected will be now casting time starting tomorrow morning watching water vapor, observations and radar - temps will be no issue with this one that's the only thing certain.... And taxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: From what I noticed rgem is a great model just not this year. Also nam was the only model that got our blizzard right last year. I'll trust the nam especially since the sref'S are on board for at least advisory snows Dont get your hopes up man. The NAM is really a horrible model and many a weenie have been let down after putting all their eggs in the NAM basket. Rgem is the best short range model. It's not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Rgem. I agree. I've always found RGEM to be a much better model than NAM. Concerning that it came in tonight so weak, but we can hope that it's just one off run. Haven't seen a snowfall map yet, but I can see from the color loop that it's gonna be very little accumulation. Hopefully GFS will come in decent tonight, or else it will look likely that NAM is just messing with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: I agree. I've always found RGEM to be a much better model than NAM. Concerning that it came in tonight so weak, but we can hope that it's just one off run. Haven't seen a snowfall map yet, but I can see from the color loop that it's gonna be very little accumulation. Hopefully GFS will come in decent tonight, or else it will look likely that NAM is just messing with us. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: From what I noticed rgem is a great model just not this year. Also nam was the only model that got our blizzard right last year. I'll trust the nam especially since the sref'S are on board for at least advisory snows Don't bet against the rgem. The nam is likely overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Low looks further north than 18z on the RGEM tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Gfs looks like 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS looks like a quick inch or so for Long Island and Ocean/Monmouth. I think 1-2" is a good call for those areas and less than 1" north/west of the city. I'd be willing to bet on the NAM being overdone at this range when it's on its own with the 3-5" on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wave 2 continues to look sheared out and suppressed on models out so far. About ready to write that off too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 16 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This is a 2-4 inch setup. Let's see what cmc, ukmet and euro say? GFS was a weak sauce and so was the rgem This has always been a 1-3" setup for the area. Up here its a coating at best, w/ 1-2" for the city and maybe a 3 spot for the east end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Wave 2 continues to look sheared out and suppressed on models out so far. About ready to write that off too. GGEM came a little bit further west tonight with wave 2. Not enough tho..yet possibly GFS trended in a positive direction aloft. There's still some time to trend this in a more positive direction for us imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wave 2 is very much over. I think best we can hope for is tomorrow night to overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 hours ago, mimillman said: Wave 2 is very much over. I think best we can hope for is tomorrow night to overperform. I doubt the amounts will be so uniform area wide with wave one. These types of events tend to have banding that with good ratios cause a brief period of 1" per hour snow over a small area, so somome SE of the city could see 4" while most see only a coating. The NWS maps are smoothed out. Wave 2 has been DOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 6z runs NAM:2-4" GFS:1-3" RGEM:1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3z SREF cut back to 0.33" QPF at KNYC. Didn't see 9z yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 < 0.25" QPF on the 09z SREF mean even for E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: < 0.25" QPF on the 09z SREF mean even for E LI. Should not be a surprise given higher totals were due to ARW members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: < 0.25" QPF on the 09z SREF mean even for E LI. Time to put this one to rest especially for those of us N & W. I never had much hope in either Friday or Sunday even when a few operational models showed a foot plus. Winter a C- so far but compared to last years F- an improvement but still pretty lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z NAM has a fairly decent burst of light snow tomorrow morning. Sharp cutoff North and West of Morristown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Comparing the 12z run of the NAM to the 06z run, it's a decent jog North and West. By daybreak it could be snowing moderately to locally heavy on most of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like everything wraps up before noon except for the far Eastern end of LI where things linger a bit longer. A few tenths of an inch LE starting on a line from about the Water Gap to Vernon to Middletown, NY, increasing as you head Southeast. 0.25"+ for most of C NJ and the Eastern two thirds of LI. Eyeballing the city is right around 0.20". I'd go with a coating to an inch for the far interior and then up to 1-3" for coastal NE NJ, SE NY, NYC and perhaps 2-5" for C NJ and the Eastern two thirds of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This is closer to 4 to 6 in Monmouth and Ocean Counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wave #2 just came back in a big way on the NAM...nice storm just to our east, but as is verbatim accum snow to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, PB GFI said: This is closer to 4 to 6 in Monmouth and Ocean Counties I could see 4 but I doubt 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Zelocita Weather said: Wave #2 just came back in a big way on the NAM...nice storm just to our east, but as is verbatim accum snow to NYC Lets see what the other models do. I think NYC still needs another 50 mile shift to the west, but we all know that can happen in real time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: I could see 4 but I doubt 6 Agree . Both waves . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 How was the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, weatherfreeeeak said: How was the RGEM? 6z was 1-2" gotta wait for 12z in about 30 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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