LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Dino said: Latest off shore SST's look hot - around 70-80F off the Mid-Atlantic coast (about +1c anomaly) - thinking wave 1 and wave 2 will have a lot of moisture to throw around. That has been a big player in past storms. (Last January being the ultimate example) but without a decent strength low it's going to be hard to tap the extra moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 hours ago, mimillman said: GFS looks very similar to the 6z run, cutting back from 12z. I would say the city is good for 1", 1-3" for Long Island. Probably warrants an advisory for Suffolk county. The model consensus is for an inch or two east of NYC, NAM is likely overdone. Maybe Upton could go with an advisory for SE Suffolk, looks borderline at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The model consensus is for an inch or two east of NYC, NAM is likely overdone. Maybe Upton could go with an advisory for SE Suffolk, looks borderline at best. I think totals on the south shore of Long Island may be enhanced by a healthy DGZ and some areas will eek out 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Can certainly see discontinuities in the snowfall maps between Mt. Holly and Upton, as Mt. Holly has areas of southern Morris, eastern Somerset and northern/eastern Middlesex in their 1-2" zone, immediately adjacent to areas that Upton has in their <1" zone, in Essex, Union and Staten Island. Maybe that's quibbling, but there's a big difference between 0 and 1" in a storm like this (whereas a 1" difference in a 5" vs. a 6" forecast is mostly irrelevant). http://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Can certainly see discontinuities in the snowfall maps between Mt. Holly and Upton, as Mt. Holly has areas of southern Morris, eastern Somerset and northern/eastern Middlesex in their 1-2" zone, immediately adjacent to areas that Upton has in their <1" zone, in Essex, Union and Staten Island. Maybe that's quibbling, but there's a big difference between 0 and 1" in a storm like this (whereas a 1" difference in a 5" vs. a 6" forecast is mostly irrelevant). The Mount Holly maps are dated December 9, 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This is the correct map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The Mount Holly maps are dated December 9, 2016. That's simply bizarre. I wouldn't know where to get a map from the past if I wanted to (the NWS doesn't save them from what I was told by their IT lead), so it must be in my cache, which I just emptied and yet it still pastes in as 12/9/16. So I gave up and just posted the link. I also posted the same map to another site and it pasted fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: That's simply bizarre. I wouldn't know where to get a map from the past if I wanted to (the NWS doesn't save them from what I was told by their IT lead), so it must be in my cache, which I just emptied and yet it still pastes in as 12/9/16. So I gave up and just posted the link. I also posted the same map to another site and it pasted fine. Thanks. That must be a cache issue. It seems like a good forecast and I wouldn't be surprised if Upton's figures are closer to those amounts when Upton updates its estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 0z NAM coming in juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well hello NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This looks like a nice little storm, 0.25" - 0.3" QPF with 15:1 ratios, 2-4" or so seems about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2-4 inches on NAM for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, TwcMan said: 2-4 inches on NAM for NYC Yep looks like eastern LI and coastal NJ get a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like we get some frontogenesis on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 0.5" QPF for KNYC on the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: 0.5" QPF for KNYC on the SREF. Impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hopefully this storm will be the appetizer before the main course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Morris said: 0.5" QPF for KNYC on the SREF. The SREF looks to be skewed by really aggressive ARW members that earlier today were mixing precip with rain on the coast. At this point you really want to see more support from other models for more than 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I think the NAM is overdone. I like a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: Nam is the best model at this range! I want to see the RGEM before coming to conclusions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hopefully this storm will be the appetizer before the main course Good luck with that one if you are counting on Saturday to deliver here in the Metro...........IMO Friday is the main course and Saturday is the dessert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: The SREF looks to be skewed by really aggressive ARW members that earlier today were mixing precip with rain on the coast. At this point you really want to see more support from other models for more than 1-2". The NMB mean is 0.47" vs. 0.53" of the ARW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Happy new year fellas Trying to summarize tonight 00z QPF / Snow for NYC/NJ SREF: 0.25 - 0.45 NAM: 0.10 - 0.25 GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Good luck with that one if you are counting on Saturday to deliver here in the Metro...........IMO Friday is the main course and Saturday is the dessert the 2nd storm is more Sunday on....not sure where folks are getting Saturday from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Nam is the best model at this range! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: the 2nd storm is more Sunday on....not sure where folks are getting Saturday from I wouldn't be surprised if most of us north of Ocean County NJ and west of the eastern half of LI don't see a flake from that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Don't know amounts yet, but I just looked at the 0z RGEM color loop and it looks terrible. Worse than 18z and just a little light snow. Do we trust NAM more or RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Don't know amounts yet, but I just looked at the 0z RGEM color loop and it looks terrible. Worse than 18z and just a little light snow. Do we trust NAM more or RGEM? RGEM looks terrible. I wouldn't trust the NAM inside of 6 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Don't know amounts yet, but I just looked at the 0z RGEM color loop and it looks terrible. Worse than 18z and just a little light snow. Do we trust NAM more or RGEM? Rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Don't know amounts yet, but I just looked at the 0z RGEM color loop and it looks terrible. Worse than 18z and just a little light snow. Do we trust NAM more or RGEM? I wouldn't trust any model with this setup since it is very complicated and I doubt the models are handling it well - look whats happening out west the precip is moving east faster then expected will be now casting time starting tomorrow morning watching water vapor, observations and radar - temps will be no issue with this one that's the only thing certain....although the colder temps at various levels will cause higher ratio's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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