mimillman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I would never forecast 20 to 1 I only forecasted 15 to 1 I saw 3 inches in C/N and said hey that`s 3 to 5 - I did not know he was in the 1 to 2 area At least at KJFK, I see 15:1 ratios are reasonable. Column looks to support strong snow growth. My only concern is how well it will stick to a warm ground given recent temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, friedmators said: 6 of the 0Z Euro ensemble members have 10"+ for Newark,NJ. 12Z yesterday only had 2. Until i see more consistency from the models i am hesitant to go higher than 1-3. The ceiling for this in my opinion is 3-6 from West to East if the stars align. 10" is off the table IMO, no models are spitting out that much QPF for Wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, friedmators said: 6 of the 0Z Euro ensemble members have 10"+ for Newark,NJ. 12Z yesterday only had 2. That's for the weekend storm no? This is just for the Friday morning wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: Until i see more consistency from the models i am hesitant to go higher than 1-3. The ceiling for this in my opinion is 3-6 from West to East if the stars align. 10" is off the table IMO, no models are spitting out that much QPF for Wave 1. I dont disagree. I was talking about wave 2. The placement of the first low should help the models with the second I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: At least at KJFK, I see 15:1 ratios are reasonable. Column looks to support strong snow growth. My only concern is how well it will stick to a warm ground given recent temps. This has been debunked over and over and over again. Warm ground days before a snow event have little bearing on accumulations. What matters is the temp during the storm and snowfall rates. Plus, we still have an extremely low sun angle. The snow will stick, as temps will be in the 20's and the snow will start before dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: That's for the weekend storm no? This is just for the Friday morning wave Yes sorry wasn't clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, friedmators said: I dont disagree. I was talking about wave 2. The placement of the first low should help the models with the second I would think. gotcha. this thread is for Wave 1 only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: At least at KJFK, I see 15:1 ratios are reasonable. Column looks to support strong snow growth. My only concern is how well it will stick to a warm ground given recent temps. If and only if the LP gets close to KJFK or the entire island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Metsfan said: If and only if the LP gets close to KJFK or the entire island. Not really...the placement of the LP has nothing to do with snow ratios...it has to do with the temperature of the column where snow growth occurs.. Moreover, often the best forcing and rates are far removed from the LP, especially in such a poorly organized system as this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: gotcha. this thread is for Wave 1 only... Yea i am sorry. I was basically replying to your 'main show' statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, friedmators said: Yea i am sorry. I was basically replying to your 'main show' statement. Yea. In that regard, i dont see Wave 2 producing much for the area, i hope i am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Euro has this further east this run. Cuts back QPF a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, friedmators said: Euro has this further east this run. Cuts back QPF a lot. euro has been awful,really consistent and reliable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just briefly looking at the 12km 18z nam, out to hour 45, looks better total wise, but that's with a 10:1 ratio. Can't say for sure what rest run will look like though. EDIT: and looking at total accumulation out to hour, 57 increased north/west, though doesn't look too really help NYC out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Just briefly looking at the 12km 18z nam, out to hour 45, looks better total wise, but that's with a 10:1 ratio. Can't say for sure what rest run will look like though. It looks pretty nice for the area. 2-3 with perhaps more on Long Island. .25+ for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 i almost don't want to post this but this event reminds me of feb 22 2001 a little bit. a weak system dropped a surprise 4-8" of high ratio snow with very cold temps http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2001/22-Feb-01.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, PB GFI said: A beauty. NAM'd! 12k isn't close to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Legit question, what is the deal with the NAM Para? Is it going to replace the NAM? Does it supposedly have higher verification scores than the regular NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 deep DGZ with even a hint of instability in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: A beauty. NAM'd! 12k isn't close to this. No it`s half . Not sure if this is a weenie model , I want to wait to see the RGEM . But the GFS has .3 in CNJ and LI after nothing 12 hours ago , so want to see if a high ratio event can bring .5 to the area . It`s close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Legit question, what is the deal with the NAM Para? Is it going to replace the NAM? Does it supposedly have higher verification scores than the regular NAM? I believe so . I haven`t seen the ver score but during the WAA event in Dec the 12k/4k had 3 to 4 on LI this had 6 . So it was overdone . I want to see if others come close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I was thinking of heading to Atlantic City for the event. May need to head to red bank. 30-1 snow ratios per accu tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 15z SREF has 0.36" qpf at KNYC. 0.41" at JFK. How was 9z in exact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Animal said: I was thinking of heading to Atlantic City for the event. May need to head to red bank. 30-1 snow ratios per accu tank I will take 15 to 1 and run . The PARA actually forms a deformation band . Maybe the high res models will see that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I will take 15 to 1 and run . The PARA actually forms a deformation band . Maybe the high res models will see that too. 15-1 is definitely a legit possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 39 minutes ago, Morris said: A beauty. NAM'd! 12k isn't close to this. I'll take it! Driving back to Suffolk tonight so I can catch it in time hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 RGEM looks like 1-2" for NYC and 2-3" LI assuming 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Latest off shore SST's look hot - around 70-80F off the Mid-Atlantic coast (about +1c anomaly) - thinking wave 1 and wave 2 will have a lot of moisture to throw around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GFS looks very similar to the 6z run, cutting back from 12z. I would say the city is good for 1", 1-3" for Long Island. Probably warrants an advisory for Suffolk county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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