Allsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro for wave 2 is advisory for the beaches. Steady snow back to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:55 PM, danstorm said: Given their climo, I'd change the word "may" to "almost certainly" Expand It will probably be the biggest snowfall in parts of the Southeast in years. Wilmington, NC hasn't seen a 6" snowstorm since December 1989. Remarkably, Wilmington had a 8.6" snowstorm on January 13-14, 1912 and a 9.8" snowfall on February 10-11, 1912. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:02 PM, dmillz25 said: Looks like it's coming NW Expand At hour 48 LP is about 100 miles north of 12Z yesterday (hard to compare to the OZ run given time differences and 24 hour panels) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euros west but still no cigar, just doesn't get ahead enough results it late phase again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro has under an inch for most of NYC tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Total euro precip doesn't amount to much, eastern Long Island sees an addition couple of inch, nobody else accumulates... maybe a dusting to 1" for NYC areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:05 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Euros west but still no cigar, just doesn't get ahead enough results it late phase again Expand it's getting there amigo, both waves are clearly west of progged models. baby steps will get us there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro has less than inch each for both waves for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I thought the differences @ 42 at 200mb woulda tugged her harder N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This will get confusing for some people. We need to split this into wave one and wave 2 threads. I'm going to do it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:08 PM, friedmators said: I thought the differences @ 42 at 200mb woulda tugged her harder N and W. Expand The two streams on the Euro are completely disjointed. The GFS was a heck of a lot closer than the Euro is. I'm not sure what people expected with no blocking and an overall progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:54 PM, RU848789 said: In addition to the WWAdvisories being issued for Middlesex/Mercer/Lower Bucks and everywhere south of there in NJ/SEPA/DE, Mt. Holly had a nice updated AFD talking about mesoscale banding. As people on this board would likely know, with mesoscale banding, pinpointing the heavier bands is nearly impossible (much like convective t-storms in the summer). In scenarios like this, some small areas (like part of a couple of counties) could get 3-5" of snow, while everyone around them could get 1-3" of snow. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... 930 AM Update...We are in the process of analyzing the incoming 12Z model guidance. Hourly temps, PoPs and Wx grids were already updated for tonight and are included in the 930 AM ESTF. We anticipate sending out an updated snowfall map and issue any winter weather advisories before noon. The 12Z NAM, latest RAP and HRRRx (which goes out far enough to capture the entire event) indicate a band of heavier snowfall (2-3") that develops late this evening near the Mason-Dixon line in SE PA/N Delmarva and expands northeastward into central NJ overnight. We continue to see a trend to the northwest with the placement of the mesoscale snow band. Additionally, the models show a local min in precip between this leading snow band to the north and heavier precip offshore, which is where we previously forecast the axis of heavier snowfall to occur. A period of moderate snow on the western edge of the precip shield from the coastal low may occur late tonight or early Friday morning over coastal NJ but it`s still a very close call. Expand Exactly what I was expressing last night. The general snow maps are smoothed out. It's all about where banding sets up. I think it's more like a general inch around the city with 4" in the best banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This thread is now for wave one only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:07 PM, BxWeatherwatcher said: it's getting there amigo, both waves are clearly west of progged models. baby steps will get us there. Expand Very possible however my red flag for this event, is zero ensembles support, the EPS and Gefs are pretty unanimous on a near miss solution, which is right in line with ggem/GFS/nam/euro.... no reason other than staying hopeful to think this thing has what it takes to get out ahead of the energy dropping from Canada allowing for the trough to dig and phase in time to bring it up coast...I'm not sayin it's impossible, I just think it's not gonna happen for anyone west of eastern Long Island... best place to be is ELI, and I think they could overperform, but I think they overperform with wave 1 not wave 2... Also keep in mind single digit dew points, and a very cold air mass, with a progressive flow, and late phase... your gonna need to see some decent DBZ overhead otherwise your LE pours virga only shot we have is models are wrong on the timing and we get an earlier phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:09 PM, Rjay said: This will get confusing for some people. We need to split this into wave one and wave 2 threads. I'm going to do it now. Expand Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:15 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Very possible however my red flag for this event, is zero ensembles support, the EPS and Gefs are pretty unanimous on a near miss solution, which is right in line with ggem/GFS/nam/euro.... no reason other than staying hopeful to think this thing has what it takes to get out ahead of the energy dropping from Canada allowing for the trough to dig and phase in time to bring it up coast...I'm not sayin it's impossible, I just think it's not gonna happen for anyone west of eastern Long Island... best place to be is ELI, and I think they could overperform, but I think they overperform with wave 1 not wave 2... Also keep in mind single digit dew points, and a very cold air mass, with a progressive flow, and late phase... your gonna need to see some decent DBZ overhead otherwise your LE pours virga only shot we have is models are wrong on the timing and we get an earlier phase Expand Disagree. All models show measurable snowfall from both waves for NYC East and South, not just Eastern Long Island. Just because NYC wont see half a foot doesnt mean it was a whiff. The UKIE, GFS and EURO, our best models, all took huge jumps NW. Yes, not to Ulster County, but the 12z suite puts the coast in the game for an advisory level snowfall. The Ukie gives Eastern LI a warning level event for Wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:15 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Very possible however my red flag for this event, is zero ensembles support, the EPS and Gefs are pretty unanimous on a near miss solution, which is right in line with ggem/GFS/nam/euro.... no reason other than staying hopeful to think this thing has what it takes to get out ahead of the energy dropping from Canada allowing for the trough to dig and phase in time to bring it up coast...I'm not sayin it's impossible, I just think it's not gonna happen for anyone west of eastern Long Island... best place to be is ELI, and I think they could overperform, but I think they overperform with wave 1 not wave 2... Also keep in mind single digit dew points, and a very cold air mass, with a progressive flow, and late phase... your gonna need to see some decent DBZ overhead otherwise your LE pours virga only shot we have is models are wrong on the timing and we get an earlier phase Expand yeah although the ggem and srefs have started their nudge west in their last few runs,even the euro moved a bit,not a lot but it did go west. On 1/5/2017 at 6:18 PM, psv88 said: Disagree. All models show measurable snowfall from both waves for NYC East and South, not just Eastern Long Island. Just because NYC wont see half a foot doesnt mean it was a whiff. The UKIE, GFS and EURO, our best models, all took huge jumps NW. Yes, not to Ulster County, but the 12z suite puts the coast in the game for an advisory level snowfall. The Ukie gives Eastern LI a warning level event for Wave 2. Expand yeah i was just about to get to the part where sst's and baroclinic zone placement plays a big part. usually a evolving low tends to hug rather then out and east. in this case the blocking might be weaker then forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 HRRR long range but nothing over an inch at 10-1 in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 6:25 PM, friedmators said: HRRR long range but nothing over an inch at 10-1 in NJ. Expand Take ratios into account, and 17z HRRR gives 1 to 2 inches for most of central and northern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Comparison of the 1/5 0z and 12z runs of the RGEM. Ratios should be better than 10:1 (probably 12:1 to 15:1 depending on location): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 7:01 PM, donsutherland1 said: Comparison of the 1/5 0z and 12z runs of the RGEM. Ratios should be better than 10:1 (probably 12:1 to 15:1 depending on location): Expand it might still get wetter and better yet,each run has upped our totals a bit and my thinking is that it might do better then anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 track the lows,1 developing by the delmarva,the other in georgia and the lone impulse in ill which actually come in to play tonight. someone along the coast is gonna get clipped with a healthy band later on when everything really starts blowing up along the coastal plain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z NAM is Southeast of the 12z run. Barely anything North of Rt 78 in NJ or NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 7:57 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 18z Nam looks really good for parts of jersey and Long Island Expand it's prob gonna be a good 2-4 inch event across the city,could be more since it's still evolving. def more out to eastern l.i.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12KM backed off even more. Under an inch for the city tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 yeah we def will see a sharp cutoff in amounts north to south.i think the city itself is going to get something out of this due to it's location on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 8:01 PM, BxWeatherwatcher said: it's prob gonna be a good 2-4 inch event across the city,could be more since it's still evolving. def more out to eastern l.i.. Expand 1-2" for the city, 2-4" From Nassau/Suffolk border eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 8:02 PM, Morris said: 12KM backed off even more. Under an inch for the city tomorrow. Expand The NAM really isn't a model I take seriously. It finds a nut once in a while but it was clearly overdone yesterday with the 3-5" type stuff it was showing on Long Island. 1-2" maybe locally 3" is probably right near the coast and less than 1" in the north and west suburbs. It does look better for wave 2 than 12z and that brushed moderate snow on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Rap and Hrrr like a band going up 95 from southeast Pa to NYC 2-3 of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3k nam is similar to the hrr and rap it also brings more snow tomorrow morning with the costal along the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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