dmillz25 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Models have shown as much as 3" throughout the region for this event. Discuss away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Weak wave ? This prob has a chance to be 4 to 6 in Coastal NJ onto E LI. This is arctic wave which will favor the coastal plain and ratios of 15 to 1 are likely . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, PB GFI said: Weak wave ? This prob has a chance to be 4 to 6 in Coastal NJ onto E LI. Right now it's considered weak I can obviously change the title Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: Right now it's considered weak I can obviously change the title Nah leave it / prob good luck . Just saying the NAM and SREFS are strong this morning. The EPS would prob b 2 to 4 with the better ratios . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 9z SREF increased precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1-3 inches on the 12z Nam for the coast http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017010412&fh=51&xpos=0&ypos=585 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAM has an inch in the city. Cut back quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yep nam cut back a bit. 1-2 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, Morris said: NAM has an inch in the city. Cut back quite a bit. Low is further west on the Nam 4k Nam has 2-4 for the coast 1-2 is a good call for Friday unless the wave gets stronger on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z Nam Para looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Will be get NAM'd at 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 With the ratios, this might be a 2-4 inch snowfall for the coast with more in LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like wave #1 might be the bigger storm/story with a solid 1-3"/2-4" area-wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The RGEM is fairly progressive but beyond its solid range right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM is fairly progressive but beyond its solid range right now 1-1.5 for the area. Less north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Gfs looks good for Thursday night. Further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 time to make some white gold....plow everyone, anything that sticks even at just an inch will not go away for days and dont want to have ice underneath for the possible Saturday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2-3 inches on the gfs for the metro area. Less north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: time to make some white gold....plow everyone, anything that sticks even at just an inch will not go away for days and dont want to have ice underneath for the possible Saturday storm 15 to 1 3 to 5 CNJ/LI Kudos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 really....25 to 1 ratios? lol...because I in CJ am on the border of the 1 and 2 inch sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: really....25 to 1 ratios? lol...because I in CJ am on the border of the 1 and 2 inch sections He means the coast, not your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 12Z CMC(Canadian) is a graze along the coast. South Jersey sees 1-2 inches. Based on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, winterwarlock said: really....25 to 1 ratios? lol...because I in CJ am on the border of the 1 and 2 inch sections I am in Colts Neck . There is 3 there x .15 is 4.5 . 4 on LI that would be 6 . I did not know what town you were in . If M/C and LI get 3 to 5 that is what I think . Less further W . Arctic waves favor the coast . Head East if you want more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I am in Colts Neck . There is 3 there x .15 is 4.5 . 4 on LI that would be 6 . I did not know what town you were in . If M/C and LI get 3 to 5 that is what I think . Less further W . Arctic waves favor the coast . Head East if you want more snow PB, Love your analyses, and everything, but there is no way the coast sees 25:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I am in Colts Neck . There is 3 there x .15 is 4.5 . 4 on LI that would be 6 . I did not know what town you were in . If M/C and LI get 3 to 5 that is what I think . Less further W . Arctic waves favor the coast . Head East if you want more snow Agreed PB! This should be a fun weekend down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Metsfan said: PB, Love your analyses, and everything, but there is no way the coast sees 25:1. I would never forecast 20 to 1 I only forecasted 15 to 1 I saw 3 inches in C/N and said hey that`s 3 to 5 - I did not know he was in the 1 to 2 area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Question about ratios...Would the temperature used to determine ratios before it snows be where the highest vertical velocities and RH overlap? I know previous posters have said look at 850 but if the snow aint being created there it seems kinda counter-intuitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 This is the main show IMO. Take it and run. 1-3 inches is a solid call right now, west to east, maybe lollis to 4 out east. Tough to predict 2 days out, but my first guess: NYC: 1.3 ISP: 2.3 BDR: 1.8 MTK: 3.5 HPN: 1.0 New Brunswick: 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: This is the main show IMO. Take it and run. 1-3 inches is a solid call right now, west to east, maybe lollis to 4 out east. Tough to predict 2 days out, but my first guess: NYC: 1.3 ISP: 2.3 BDR: 1.8 MTK: 3.5 HPN: 1.0 New Brunswick: 2.0 6 of the 0Z Euro ensemble members have 10"+ for Newark,NJ. 12Z yesterday only had 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, PB GFI said: I would never forecast 20 to 1 I only forecasted 15 to 1 I saw 3 inches in C/N and said hey that`s 3 to 5 - I did not know he was in the 1 to 2 area You're right the mountain(bad wording here hills.) areas are above sea level, and yes I see 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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