Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 So we are now within a couple days and models look to be in pretty good agreement with a weak coastal storm passing well S of the area but will still throw back enough moisture to clip at least the southern areas of SNE with some light accumulations. T-3" looks to be about it with the hires-NAM right now going GGW dropping 4"+ in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 http:// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The 12km NAM lays a 4 spot on your fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAM vs the world. Well, it has the ARW SREFS on its side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: NAM vs the world. Well, it has the ARW SREFS on its side. They are bringing the SLP and baroclinic zone further N, the the more robust solutions. I would not bit on them right now given the overall progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Rgem would also have a decent band into SNE if you extrapolate after 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Rgem would also have a decent band into SNE if you extrapolate after 48 Yeah, a bit further N than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Does this thread cover Sat/Sun threat for Cape and Islands too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 9z SREF increased precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, ackwaves said: Does this thread cover Sat/Sun threat for Cape and Islands too? No i deleted the other thread that James started. No point having a thread for two threats inside of 4 days. The 2nd threat could still be a complete whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, ackwaves said: Does this thread cover Sat/Sun threat for Cape and Islands too? That's the 2nd event. This is for the initial Friday system that ends Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It would be nice to be able to believe the SREFs but I have zero faith in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Rgem would also have a decent band into SNE if you extrapolate after 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No i deleted the other thread that James started. No point having a thread for two threats inside of 4 days. The 2nd threat could still be a complete whiff. Got it. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It would be nice to be able to believe the SREFs but I have zero faith in them. Every model is trending wetter so there is no reason to discount them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Every model is trending wetter so there is no reason to discount themOf course there is reason to discount them. I wouldn't weight them at 0.0 though. Maybe 1-2% weight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Every model is trending wetter so there is no reason to discount them They have been by far the worst piece of model guidance for about 3 winters in a row. There's a reason no one posts them anymore lol. The trend of getting wetter very well could be happening but I wouldn't look to the SREFS to give you that info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yeah just because other guidance has trended back wetter that doesn't mean you take the SREFs at face value. So the euro increased qpf from like 0.05 to 0.10...so now we should believe some guidance that is near 0.50 liquid equivalent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: They have been by far the worst piece of model guidance for about 3 winters in a row. There's a reason no one posts them anymore lol. The trend of getting wetter very well could be happening but I wouldn't look to the SREFS to give you that info. Except for Jan blizzard down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 9z SREF increased precip Hitting the SREF's so early in the morning? You might want to find a 12-step group to assist with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Actually, NAM and GFS are sharing the same thoughts, so the SREFs are probably on to something. Their snow percentages are low though for an event about two days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Surface low development is curling into the Hatteras, NC region of NC. This could mean a significant storm for Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Actually, NAM and GFS are sharing the same thoughts, so the SREFs are probably on to something. Their snow percentages are low though for an event about two days out. Not really. The NAM is substantially N & W of the GFS at the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Ok but GFS prints out .25-.50" of QPF for CHH on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Strong coastal development on the 12z NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 JGW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z NAM has already started correcting itself to the S & E compared to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Strong coastal development on the 12z NAM run. It's a 1007mb low and a bit further NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Strong coastal development on the 12z NAM run. 1006mb is not a strong coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Compared to previous runs Bob yes it is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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