ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Will he weight the GFS as highly when it comes out lower?? weenies will likely not be liking the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 10 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Will he weight the GFS as highly when it comes out lower?? weenies will likely not be liking the GFS For tonight, yes, GFS anemic. For saturday, GFS took a major jump towards the NAM at 500mb. Still catching up....ALL the models are playing catchup. This will not be finalized until the storm is happening, mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Sounds good Steve...I will mark your words....however I think while Philly has a chance for some snow...areas not too far west of 95 are not likely to see more then flurries IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Sounds good Steve...I will mark your words....however I think while Philly has a chance for some snow...areas not too far west of 95 are not likely to see more then flurries IMHO You may be right, but 18-24 hours ago we were also saying NJ would be lucky to see flurries and now some forecasts are over 12". So, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 30 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Sounds good Steve...I will mark your words....however I think while Philly has a chance for some snow...areas not too far west of 95 are not likely to see more then flurries IMHO We have no shot with wave #2 this far from I95. Ukie and Canadian still look the same it's the NAM being the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 All the high-res NAM solutions are pretty consistent with each other if you believe it for the first wave. The HRRR, though not out quite far enough, does look similar. An Advisory has been issued for the GPA for 1-3" with 4" pops in CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Accu Weather not too excited at 12:25pm: (That's underdone for tonight) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 So this is for Wave 1 + Wave 2, but damn. Either that or the Nam-para put the decimal point in the wrong spot. I think this may be the official "Nam-ed" run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z NAM/GFS through Wxsim for NW Chesco bumps up snow just a little bit with 2" to 3" depending on ratios (I am using simple 10:1 for the below) Flurries by 8pm and light snow by 930pm temp 27.1 1am Mod Snow temp 24.6 with 1.0" on the ground 4am Mod Snow temp 23.6 with 1.7" of snow 7am flurries ending temp 22.7 with 2.0" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: 12z NAM/GFS through Wxsim for NW Chesco bumps up snow just a little bit with 2" to 3" depending on ratios (I am using simple 10:1 for the below) Flurries by 8pm and light snow by 930pm temp 27.1 1am Mod Snow temp 24.6 with 1.0" on the ground 4am Mod Snow temp 23.6 with 1.7" of snow 7am flurries ending temp 22.7 with 2.0" of snow liking my shot in chester county at the family farm, house in berks is a different story. I think there is a ways to go with this one, could go either way yet imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Accu Weather not too excited at 12:25pm: (That's underdone for tonight) HRRR is complete opposite of this call with a trace in South Jersey more (1-3"?) up by me and back toward Q-town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 I've seen all the data I am using for tonight and sticking with my original 1-3" call generally in SE PA (hedging lower end of that range still). I'll take it and enjoy every single flake that falls. Would have been nice to extend this to the AM rush to possibly cancel school to go sledding with the kids but oh well. I could always be the cool dad and keep them home if there's an inch or two for sledding purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: HRRR is complete opposite of this call with a trace in South Jersey more (1-3"?) up by me and back toward Q-town. Glenn had this last I heard...more toward Qtown...less in SJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Lets see what 18z shows. Any guesses. Even more northwest for 18z NAM. I am guessing of course I am probably jinxing it so you can all hate on me if the opposite happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I've seen all the data I am using for tonight and sticking with my original 1-3" call generally in SE PA (hedging lower end of that range still). I'll take it and enjoy every single flake that falls. Would have been nice to extend this to the AM rush to possibly cancel school to go sledding with the kids but oh well. I could always be the cool dad and keep them home if there's an inch or two for sledding purposes Does it bother you that every single winter event we have this year has occurred in the early am? Quantity of snow has been bad enough does the little that falls have to happen when most are sleeping old man winter is up to torture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Time for intellicast radar hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 ^Already on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This should be my largest snowfall of the season so far, 1-2" Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I am feeling a real chance here of DOUBLING my seasonal snowfall. Sound impressive? 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Does it bother you that every single winter event we have this year has occurred in the early am? Quantity of snow has been bad enough does the little that falls have to happen when most are sleeping old man winter is up to torture. Good points there Red! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 I am feeling a real chance here of DOUBLING my seasonal snowfall. Sound impressive? 1.5" I have u both beat. I officially have a T here this season. One inch tonight will put me at approximately 100x's my seasonal total to date!! :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 hours ago, RedSky said: Does it bother you that every single winter event we have this year has occurred in the early am? Quantity of snow has been bad enough does the little that falls have to happen when most are sleeping old man winter is up to torture. Yes, most of the snow I've seen falling this winter so far has been with a flashlight, lol. But it still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 0Z GFS has precip max for tonight in extreme SEPA. Winner winner chicken dinner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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