MGorse Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 00z NAM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, MGorse said: 00z NAM looks good. Welcome home MGorse Guess we'll know in a few hours if we were NAM'd or there is credibility to the totals shown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Be careful folks....it is the NAM it will be too high...also I see a few folks talking up ratios due to low surface temps - remember ratios are not based simply on surface temps. That said there could be some spots with 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Welcome home MGorse Guess we'll know in a few hours if we were NAM'd or there is credibility to the totals shown? Thanks! Yeah, will await the other 00z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Crushed!! (relatively speaking, lol). Cape May/Wildwood must have mixing issues here because frontogenic lift happens right over them almost and there is decent qpf on sim radar but not much snowfall accum: Hard to say our county is barely 12km wide so looking at Delaware side of bay it shows a nice max total of 4-5". Not sure how they'd do better. Just a resolution issue. Looking forward to being in rang of the hrrrrrrr model. That should shed light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wonder what Ray is up to? He is ground zero on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Be careful folks....it is the NAM it will be too high...also I see a few folks talking up ratios due to low surface temps - remember ratios are not based simply on surface temps. That said there could be some spots with 15:1 There continues to be QPF challenges among the model guidance with this event. Not saying the 00z NAM is 100 percent right, but I would not completely toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Redmorninglight said: Looking forward to being in rang of the hrrrrrrr model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 New ride at Wildwood coming summer 2017! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, MGorse said: There continues to be QPF challenges among the model guidance with this event. Not saying the 00z NAM is 100 percent right, but I would not completely toss it. Hi Mike! You will never hear me question a professional like you! just been NAMed a lot in recent years and have a mistrust of it's output Paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 It's not winter until we get NAM'd Welcome Newman, Haven't seen Pennypacker in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Hi Mike! You will never hear me question a professional like you! just been NAMed a lot in recent years and have a mistrust of it's output Paul Understood, however this system has some mesoscale details involved which the NAM should handle better. But we shall see. Maybe it will be actually right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 RGEM says we've just been NAM'd. Around 1" in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: RGEM says we've just been NAM'd. Around 1" in general. And it begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: RGEM says we've just been NAM'd. Around 1" in general. I would take 1 inch in a second. Tomorrow is when we start using the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS supports the RGEM....up to about an inch in general: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Fox29 just now and this will probably be how this pans out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Glenn going with the rest as far as accumulation and a 10pm-4am event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wxsim with 6z GFS/NAM blend for NW Chesco PA No real changes for tonight's "biggest" snow of the season. Some Flurries could be around as early as 4pm with light snow by 9pm or so with the 10pm forecast of 27.7 degrees with 0.2" on the ground (10:1 ratios) 1am Moderate Snow temp 25.7 with 0.9" of snow 330am light snow temp 25.0 with 1.0" snow 7am tapering to flurries temp 24.2 with 1.4" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 ^I think this is done way before 7am...it's moving pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Think we're getting NAM'd again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wasn't expecting that from the NAM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Think we're getting NAM'd again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 RGEM rather anemic for tonight...."weak sauce". Around an inch in general...."maybe" 2 inches in spots. Fast mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: RGEM rather anemic for tonight...."weak sauce". Around an inch in general...."maybe" 2 inches in spots. Fast mover. 3k nam is amazing for wave 2. 6 inches of snow. Lets see if it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM is either on to something for tonight, or, well, it's just the NAM. GFS is anemic too like the RGEM. 6 hours of light snow max....general 1" around the region, a few 2" spots if you're lucky says the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NWS about to increase totals to 2 to 4" with potential WWA coming out before noon for tonight...HRRR looking a bit juicier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2-4" for Philadelphia with amounts going up S&E is totally a safe call at this point it would seem. I can't see Philadelphia getting in on the action too much this weekend, maybe an inch or 2 at the most with highest amounts S&E. West of the city is probably out for the weekend but everyone gets something overnight at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 All the positive changes for wave 2 (1st wave faster, stronger s/w, deepening trough faster) get cancelled by the fact it appears that wave will also come through faster. If it stayed the same timing with those first 3 changes we'd have a decent shot of another few inches at i95 and slight n&w. At this point the shore is looking at 30 miles or so of getting a pretty decent outcome from Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 DT is honking on FB, riding the new NAM for all it is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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