Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Models have been hinting at 1/6-1/9 as a potential period for some wintry weather for our region via a couple of different waves that cross the region. Looking like the consensus is favoring the first wave on Friday morning more that wave 2 later Saturday attm. A general 1-3" looks like the range, for now, across extreme SE PA with slightly higher totals along the NJ coast up to 4 or 5" there. What once was a mediocre jet induced band of flurries now looks like it will affect I95 all the way up to BOS as the flow buckles and a coastal slp moves NNE om the SC coast enhancing the jet induced precip .Not a massive storm but we take what we can get this winter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Um, Ralph ... it's 2017 Anyway, thanks for hanging in there with this one. Let's just whiten the ground and call it a win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Um, Ralph ... it's 2017 Good catch. I will be dating my checks 2016 til at least April :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 12z NAM....I will gladly take this to get us on board:There is more separation between waves at 42 hours and a stronger vortmax in the southern stream as well. Could bode well for wave 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 With my high snow for the season at .8" it's going to be close, use the NAM 50%rule could be 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Ch6 (Accu weather) at noon has 1-2" from Philly and S and coating to an 1" N&W...seems a tad underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2017 Author Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 ^No shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Ch6 (Accu weather) at noon has 1-2" from Philly and S and coating to an 1" N&W...seems a tad underdone. Everything Ive hearing seems overdone especially out in my neck of the woods, he has 1-2 Mt holly says under 1" maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Everything Ive hearing seems overdone especially out in my neck of the woods, he has 1-2 Mt holly says under 1" maybe He said the graphic north and west of Philly is overdone...more like a coating - inch. Although I see someone popping in w/2+ inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks like NWS just bumped up their winter graphics a bit with 2" now the "likely" forecast for much of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 At 4:15 Glenn pretty much going w/an inch for everyone...still think some areas get 2+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Ch6 at 4:50pm...probably a safe bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hoping the MA forum gets their storm. I'll take a screw job on this one if it means the weenies in the piedmont get a 20 incher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Regardless of how this plays out, it's just nice to be followIng something again. Here's hoping that all my wishing pulls this thing up to us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I approve of ch6 map. 2" would cover the grass and actually hang around for a few days. Hopefully north trend has begun on 18z suite for weekend. Really pulling for euro to lead the way at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wxsim with 18z data bumps up snowfall a little bit more with a total of between 1.5" and 2.3" depending on ratios. Flurries could begin as early as 4pm tomorrow with Light snow by 10pm (temp 29.8) Moderate Snow at 1am (temp 27.5) around 1" of snow so far Light Snow at 4am (temp 26.2) with 1.5" to 2.0" of snow Snow ends by 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 ^^ I love tracking storms, but running a business with 3 locations and having to make the call about being open...this is the type of storm that makes it a very difficult call!! I wouldn't trade it for anything though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 we just got nam'd. 3.5 inches of snow for Philly. With ratios, probably around 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Long time lurker here. I swear, last year's HECS has not allowed me to accept any snow below significant levels. This winter, though, I might need to adapt lol. Hopefully I can pull out a lucky 2 inches to make it the largest of the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Crushed!! (relatively speaking, lol). Cape May/Wildwood must have mixing issues here because frontogenic lift happens right over them almost and there is decent qpf on sim radar but not much snowfall accum: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Crushed!! (relatively speaking, lol): 5 inches with ratios!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, PaEasternWX said: 5 inches with ratios!. We may have just gotten NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We may have just gotten NAM'd. Lets see if the low can trend stronger. This will be a nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Couldn't ask for much better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 NAM gives me verbatim .15 qpf and NWS has me at a low of 23 Thursday night. What kind of ratios we looking at with lower 20 temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow. This is sref for second poss event saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 Sad and funny at the same time....this could potentially be our big event for the season. I hope not but the way the pattern has been, who knows. Savor every single snowflake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: Wow. This is sref for second poss event saturday Not a huge deal but try and keep this thread to the Friday AM threat for ease of reading please. There is another general winter discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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