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Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

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7 minutes ago, 512high said:

Ray  , if it were not to "fail"...zero for southern NH?

dude, just sit back and read the thread. while reading, keep in mind that this "threat" is 5 days away. and also keep in mind that as of yesterday, this was heading out to sea, and that the talk this morning has been that it seems to be trending west a bit. so you may be in the game, you may not. but 5 days out, no one here, no mets, no weenies (aside from DIT the prognosticator) can tell you if southern NH is going to get any snow

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hope so. I still think Fri was the better shot . I'd rather 1-3 of certainty than a chance of 2 wide rights where the cape gets snow and no one else does. But hopefully the positives continue 

Friday looked better yesterday when the ensembles support was more robust and it had been trending a bit stronger...but that has clearly reversed in the past 24 hours and given that we are now only 3 days away from that event, it is more likely that it is a very minor event or complete non-event. If it had held steady or trended a little sharper, we'd be talking solid advisory probably...or even better.

At this point, the 2nd system has both time and dprog/dt on its side. So we'll see where that takes us.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Friday looked better yesterday when the ensembles support was more robust and it had been trending a bit stronger...but that has clearly reversed in the past 24 hours and given that we are now only 3 days away from that event, it is more likely that it is a very minor event or complete non-event. If it had held steady or trended a little sharper, we'd be talking solid advisory probably...or even better.

At this point, the 2nd system has both time and dprog/dt on its side. So we'll see where that takes us.

Wtf?

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Someone should create a thread for the Sunday potential, that way the worthwhile discussions can remain seperate from the nonsensical banter  regarding the "threat" of flurries and virga for extreme southeastern NE on Friday. The Friday threat was dead since yesterday am; hence it's also why we're inside 72 hours and there's still no thread for it.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Someone should create a thread for the Sunday potential, that way the worthwhile discussions can remain seperate from the nonsensical banter  regarding the "threat" of flurries and virga for extreme southeastern NE on Friday. The Friday threat was dead since yesterday am; hence it's also why we're inside 72 hours and there's still no thread for it.

agree..

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14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Someone should create a thread for the Sunday potential, that way the worthwhile discussions can remain seperate from the nonsensical banter  regarding the "threat" of flurries and virga for extreme southeastern NE on Friday. The Friday threat was dead since yesterday am; hence it's also why we're inside 72 hours and there's still no thread for it.

Since you seem to always know it all and love patting yourself on the back and see things before they happen (we'll ignore the Rgem call from last week).. why don't you give a go and start the thread . Come on fella!

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hope so. I still think Fri was the better shot . I'd rather 1-3 of certainty than a chance of 2 wide rights where the cape gets snow and no one else does. But hopefully the positives continue 

There is no certainty Friday....the threat is negligible 

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22 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Someone should create a thread for the Sunday potential, that way the worthwhile discussions can remain seperate from the nonsensical banter  regarding the "threat" of flurries and virga for extreme southeastern NE on Friday. The Friday threat was dead since yesterday am; hence it's also why we're inside 72 hours and there's still no thread for it.

lolol, love it!!

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29 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Someone should create a thread for the Sunday potential, that way the worthwhile discussions can remain seperate from the nonsensical banter  regarding the "threat" of flurries and virga for extreme southeastern NE on Friday. The Friday threat was dead since yesterday am; hence it's also why we're inside 72 hours and there's still no thread for it.

:poster_stupid:

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

DT and some other prominent  mets ruling out a turn up the coast Sunday. Hope they are wrong . Otherwise those that wanted Fri to miss are left with nothing like the rest of us . I'd hope there's more EPS support than 00z had 

Honestly I'm not sure how anyone short of Jesus himself could rule anything out just yet for Sunday :)

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Sunday still is and always was the better possibility; having said that, the probability of that is well less than 50%. Granted, that's a personal assessment so ... taken for what it is worth.

I honestly think the canvased pattern in all this is one still hostile to Sunday, too.  The best way to overcome would be to "thread the needle" with timing and hope that the narrowed out corridors in which S/W mechanics have enough power to parlay and get you a winter storm that way.

There's a weird game of acceptance versus denial that goes on around here. 

Folks are speaking as though missing the scenario on Friday is some sudden revelation that needed all this extra time to resolve/uncover? Okay if you want to feel that way, but...it was explained, backed with solid theoretical knowledge and experience, why that would like not come to pass some three days ago... Why is that less important then, than now -

it's almost like because no one wants to believe bad news, they ignore the advice, regardless of the cogency of the delivery ...holding out and holding out, and then forgetting the original nay-sayer's advice (of course).  

There's a guy out there who will be ignored about the freight train of the apocalypse about to barrel on through, before which everyone stands around on the railway tracks arguing instead about the color shoes they're wearing.   

 

 

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