SJonesWX Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, 512high said: Ray , if it were not to "fail"...zero for southern NH? dude, just sit back and read the thread. while reading, keep in mind that this "threat" is 5 days away. and also keep in mind that as of yesterday, this was heading out to sea, and that the talk this morning has been that it seems to be trending west a bit. so you may be in the game, you may not. but 5 days out, no one here, no mets, no weenies (aside from DIT the prognosticator) can tell you if southern NH is going to get any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Feel the LOVE!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hope so. I still think Fri was the better shot . I'd rather 1-3 of certainty than a chance of 2 wide rights where the cape gets snow and no one else does. But hopefully the positives continue Friday looked better yesterday when the ensembles support was more robust and it had been trending a bit stronger...but that has clearly reversed in the past 24 hours and given that we are now only 3 days away from that event, it is more likely that it is a very minor event or complete non-event. If it had held steady or trended a little sharper, we'd be talking solid advisory probably...or even better. At this point, the 2nd system has both time and dprog/dt on its side. So we'll see where that takes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Friday looked better yesterday when the ensembles support was more robust and it had been trending a bit stronger...but that has clearly reversed in the past 24 hours and given that we are now only 3 days away from that event, it is more likely that it is a very minor event or complete non-event. If it had held steady or trended a little sharper, we'd be talking solid advisory probably...or even better. At this point, the 2nd system has both time and dprog/dt on its side. So we'll see where that takes us. Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Someone should create a thread for the Sunday potential, that way the worthwhile discussions can remain seperate from the nonsensical banter regarding the "threat" of flurries and virga for extreme southeastern NE on Friday. The Friday threat was dead since yesterday am; hence it's also why we're inside 72 hours and there's still no thread for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 25 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: friends in North Carolina getting psyched for 2 inches lolol Who are you trying to kid? There are many here who would be psyched for that too, this poster included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Wtf? It's a term for the change in model prognostication over time...so basically a fancy term for "trend"...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Someone should create a thread for the Sunday potential, that way the worthwhile discussions can remain seperate from the nonsensical banter regarding the "threat" of flurries and virga for extreme southeastern NE on Friday. The Friday threat was dead since yesterday am; hence it's also why we're inside 72 hours and there's still no thread for it. agree.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 It's not thread-worthy at this juncture. It could easily be cirrus for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Someone should create a thread for the Sunday potential, that way the worthwhile discussions can remain seperate from the nonsensical banter regarding the "threat" of flurries and virga for extreme southeastern NE on Friday. The Friday threat was dead since yesterday am; hence it's also why we're inside 72 hours and there's still no thread for it. Since you seem to always know it all and love patting yourself on the back and see things before they happen (we'll ignore the Rgem call from last week).. why don't you give a go and start the thread . Come on fella! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hope so. I still think Fri was the better shot . I'd rather 1-3 of certainty than a chance of 2 wide rights where the cape gets snow and no one else does. But hopefully the positives continue There is no certainty Friday....the threat is negligible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 30 minutes ago, 512high said: Ray , if it were not to "fail"...zero for southern NH? Very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 22 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Someone should create a thread for the Sunday potential, that way the worthwhile discussions can remain seperate from the nonsensical banter regarding the "threat" of flurries and virga for extreme southeastern NE on Friday. The Friday threat was dead since yesterday am; hence it's also why we're inside 72 hours and there's still no thread for it. lolol, love it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The last few pages have been painful to read... At this point I would rather see the Friday wave fizzle and allow Sunday to sidle up a little closer. Still only 10+ Euro runs to fix this mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 29 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Someone should create a thread for the Sunday potential, that way the worthwhile discussions can remain seperate from the nonsensical banter regarding the "threat" of flurries and virga for extreme southeastern NE on Friday. The Friday threat was dead since yesterday am; hence it's also why we're inside 72 hours and there's still no thread for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's a term for the change in model prognostication over time...so basically a fancy term for "trend"...lol. Damn-that's why you were on east hill and I was relegated to south hill...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Dont recall if this has been posted, but you gotta love the 12z Ukie bendmark track... Check out this trough axis.. wish other models would show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The op CMC seems to be on the west side of it's ensemble members for the Sunday storm. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 DT and some other prominent mets ruling out a turn up the coast Sunday. Hope they are wrong . Otherwise those that wanted Fri to miss are left with nothing like the rest of us . I'd hope there's more EPS support than 00z had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: DT and some other prominent mets ruling out a turn up the coast Sunday. Hope they are wrong . Otherwise those that wanted Fri to miss are left with nothing like the rest of us . I'd hope there's more EPS support than 00z had Honestly I'm not sure how anyone short of Jesus himself could rule anything out just yet for Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 DT always roots against the north track in every case when lower ma is targeted. Like clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: DT always roots against the north track in every case when lower ma is targeted. Like clockwork. Yup. Actually gives me more confidence for something meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: DT always roots against the north track in every case when lower ma is targeted. Like clockwork. So true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: DT always roots against the north track in every case when lower ma is targeted. Like clockwork. Yup..It never fails. I remember the Jan 2015 storm he posted 8 runs in a row the Euro showing Richmond getting crushed and it couldn't come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 EPS looks slightly Southeast of 00z to me on the Friday deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Not good (to this weenieologist) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Sunday still is and always was the better possibility; having said that, the probability of that is well less than 50%. Granted, that's a personal assessment so ... taken for what it is worth. I honestly think the canvased pattern in all this is one still hostile to Sunday, too. The best way to overcome would be to "thread the needle" with timing and hope that the narrowed out corridors in which S/W mechanics have enough power to parlay and get you a winter storm that way. There's a weird game of acceptance versus denial that goes on around here. Folks are speaking as though missing the scenario on Friday is some sudden revelation that needed all this extra time to resolve/uncover? Okay if you want to feel that way, but...it was explained, backed with solid theoretical knowledge and experience, why that would like not come to pass some three days ago... Why is that less important then, than now - it's almost like because no one wants to believe bad news, they ignore the advice, regardless of the cogency of the delivery ...holding out and holding out, and then forgetting the original nay-sayer's advice (of course). There's a guy out there who will be ignored about the freight train of the apocalypse about to barrel on through, before which everyone stands around on the railway tracks arguing instead about the color shoes they're wearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 They are still a bit SE but the Euro Ens were quite a bit better than the 00z run for Sunday. 00z barely had a closed low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, wx2fish said: They are SE but the Euro Ens were quite a bit better than the 00z run for Sunday .I just hope a few members aren't skewing the mean to make it look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: .I just hope a few members aren't skewing the mean to make it look better. Possible but I can't see the members but the mean is quite a bit better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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