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Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Seems like a lot of melting in here today.   

Not sure why...unless people had some sort of nirvana moment where they foresaw us getting smoked by a snowstorm this weekend, and are now sobering up and realizing that storm threats at 6-7 days out are pretty precarious.

 

That said, we still could definitely get something...from either system. For one of the first times all season though....wagons southeast.

 

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2 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I dont know about robust but there are definitely a few decent hits on the 12z gefs.  Seems like a timing issue with the southern wave/ waves either escaping quickly on the Ots vs slower/ more consolidated and amped hits.  Odds still favor south but worthy of monitoring, especially SE areas.

gefs_ptype_ens_east_22.png

There are a few amped up members, 958mb low on E15 and 976mb low on E9.

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If there's another positive going forward, it is that the storm tries to happen during a period of amplifying PNA ridge out west rather than one that is deamplifying...I like the look better usually when a ridge is amplifying as it will help any s/w sharpen up.

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