Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah except you got the wrong trough I was referring to...that's the Friday event, and the one where sharpening the east wall of the trough is more realistic is the Sat night/Sunday event. Friday had a decent chance yesterday, but it has trended worse with the main s/w and too much downstream interference, so at this point, I'd prob focus on Sat night/Sunday.

Dang. Can't even escape that confluence in DC!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM is a whiff for Friday but a really solid hit for eastern areas on Sat night. Looks like advisory or low end warning stuff.

Eastern as in Cape Cod? Boston? Maine? Always a problem knowing where east meets west or where both blend into central. Similar to knowing CNE vs NNE (or "northern" parts of SNE).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Eastern as in Cape Cod? Boston? Maine? Always a problem knowing where east meets west or where both blend into central. Similar to knowing CNE vs NNE (or "northern" parts of SNE).

 

Easter half of MA and most of RI...but I'd say advisory snows get back to around 495 on the GGEM. Warning snows for SE of I-95. The distinction is really irrelevant though at 120 hours out. I didn't get more specific for that reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Man.... swing the GGEM 50-100 miles west and that's a big region wide hit for the Sunday wave 

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Ukie looked like it would be decent in ern areas on Sunday. 

Yes, we need a lil more west for most of the area...not just Eastern areas.   Let's see what the Euro shows??  Not thinking it will show a big jump, but a small improvement would be encouraging.  Friday isn't looking so good as of late.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would either of those solutions Ukie/GGEM get snow back into all of SNE? Wouldn't it be a bit more expansive than that GGEM snowmap?

It would probably get flakes/coating back towards us, but nothing of significance.  We would need another 50 mile shift at least to get into some decent snow on the GGEM/UKIE imo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Not gonna pull the blinds...never do anyhow... but not gonna invest in any of these. Be nice to be pleasantly surprised. If not, well there's always the next round.

That's my feeling too.  And that's all I was meaning earlier when I said that both these aren't looking so hot as of the moment...when I was accused of Melting lol.  

 

And I agree with you J Paul, it would be nice to be pleasantly surprised.  Maybe that happens???  Like Will said, it would be nice to see the Euro come around. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Would either of those solutions Ukie/GGEM get snow back into all of SNE? Wouldn't it be a bit more expansive than that GGEM snowmap?

Maybe an inch or two. Parsing details at 120 hours isn't very useful though. What you want to see is the euro come more onboard so that at least we're now in a decent starting spot to try and trend it another 50/75 miles. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to say what others are feeling.  Its all going to hell in a handbasket.  We miss on these next 5 days, then comes the warmup...and the long range models have looked worse for blocking.  So then we have to wait until after Jan 15.  I think that is where this is headed.  Bye bye nice deep powdery snow pack and hello glaciated uneven crunchy shrinking cover.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I'm going to say what others are feeling.  Its all going to hell in a handbasket.  We miss on these next 5 days, then comes the warmup...and the long range models have looked worse for blocking.  So then we have to wait until after Jan 15.  I think that is where this is headed.  Bye bye nice deep powdery snow pack and hello glaciated uneven crunchy shrinking cover.

Personally I think we party at some point in the next 12 days

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Hazey said:

Just posting what it shows. Atmosphere don't care how much or little you care. It's just weather;)

That came across wrong...I wasn't meaning that toward you Hazey...just giving my opinion on the two systems that's all.  I was more interested in Sunday from the start.

 

What any of us want is of no matter obviously.  Was just saying that's all.  Let's see what the Euro shows..if it shows anything positive???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I'm going to say what others are feeling.  Its all going to hell in a handbasket.  We miss on these next 5 days, then comes the warmup...and the long range models have looked worse for blocking.  So then we have to wait until after Jan 15.  I think that is where this is headed.  Bye bye nice deep powdery snow pack and hello glaciated uneven crunchy shrinking cover.

:violin:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said:

Personally I think we party at some point in the next 12 days

Why?  What date are you focusing on?  BTW congrats on 7/hour.  That's awesome!  Must look great outside.From what I can tell everytime the pattern looks to settle in with a better blocking regime, it weakens.  But maybe that will be the story of this year.  I could ho-hum y way to 70 pretty easily

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Why?  What date are you focusing on?  BTW congrats on 7/hour.  That's awesome!  Must look great outside.From what I can tell everytime the pattern looks to settle in with a better blocking regime, it weakens.  But maybe that will be the story of this year.  I could ho-hum y way to 70 pretty easily

I'm not focusing on any date, haven't bothered to look at any LR guidance.  It's just that here in winter, snow happens - and sometimes quite out of the blue we'll get a storm.  Above normal doesn't have to mean rain either.  Mark my words ... lol!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...