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Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That Euro look today is s 32.01-33 r extravaganza here with those 850's.. while cold at surface and a sleet fest from CT border to n to ORH

2 narrow areas of icing just n of me, and for some reason ... pocketed east and west of me too.

agreed -

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's IP/SN mix probably at Kevin's. 850 is near 0 with no warm tongue and cold 925 temps. You aren't getting ZR much if that happens.

Yeah it's not screaming ZR but it is probably SN/ZR/PL mix. Looks like the core of the warm nose on the Euro is right around 800 hpa or so on the weatherbell cross sections.

You really want that warm tongue more than 3C for a big ZR signal and that's definitely not there. 

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On 1/10/2017 at 1:47 PM, Spanks45 said:

The Euro has a big high pressing in from the Northeast on Wednesday, much stronger than last nights run. This is the time that is also has the NAO going negative and the PNA going positive...

 

The Euro was seeing this as far back as Tuesday, I had mentioned this on Tuesday, not too bad for an 8 day forecast time...I wonder if it could trend even further south with the frozen precip if the heavier, steadier precip could make it down this way.

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

 

The Euro was seeing this as far back as Tuesday, I had mentioned this on Tuesday, not too bad for an 8 day forecast time...I wonder if it could trend even further south with the frozen precip if the heavier, steadier precip could make it down this way.

Yeah this isn't exactly a shock. Even on Thursday I had a mix in the forecast with highs in the 30s for Tuesday. The lowly GFS even had a nice signal. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a change of events..we went from 7+ days of torch to a potential big winter storm and no torch..all in part to a -NAO that nothing saw 5 days ago

Ah ha ha - nice try ...

And, there's little chance of a "big winter storm" here...  

Kevin's being a dink in response to my teasing and humiliating him ...which I don't understand - he really should just accept his station in society.  but, we're still just talking about something to alleviate an otherwise boring pattern.  

seriously, let's not get carried away.  for one, the Euro snow/"clown" map is probably over done.  secondly, since this is still an evolving trend, ...heh, it really requires just new run support. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ah ha ha - nice try ...

And, there's little chance of a "big winter storm" here...  

Kevin's being a dink in response to my teasing and humiliating him ...which I don't understand - he really should just accept his station in society.  but, we're still just talking about something to alleviate an otherwise boring pattern.  

seriously, let's not get carried away.  for one, the Euro snow/"clown" map is probably over done.  secondly, since this is still an evolving trend, ...heh, it really requires just new run support. 

lol this line is too great

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GEFS??

And that's a torch even if it verified? What happened to all the 50's and higher we were seeing forecast in places?

And 48/32 is pretty hideous for the time of year... I'd bet there are some 50s thrown in there too since it's a mean of all ensemble members so the extremes are likely to be muted (including a colder solution on Tuesday). 

The Euro Ensembles - which I cannot post - look just as hideous through D10. 

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1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

lol this line is too great

And 48/32 is pretty hideous for the time of year... I'd bet there are some 50s thrown in there too since it's a mean of all ensemble members so the extremes are likely to be muted (including a colder solution on Tuesday). 

The Euro Ensembles - which I cannot post - look just as hideous through D10. 

Xmax temps for the 84 to 168 hr period on the EPS show a 15 plus degree drop from the 60 hrs ago run.  Those mega torch runs have cooled each day. Does not mean it will be BN but it certainly is a huge drop and has big implications for CNE NNE winter sports enthusiasts.  

 

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Two things I'm noticing this morning:

1.  My zone forecast shows high temperatures predicted Thurs-Sat are now lower than they were.

2.  The SPC 3-7 map has a decent high north of NE sitting there the whole time.  There is no cutter and next Monday there is a 996 storm approaching the TV, although the high looks to be further north, though strong, over Quebec near Hudson.  Doesn't look like a torch, although I don't know if that high will keep the TV storm on a good path for us.  Looks like it could be just a bit of a warm up here for a few days but then Canadian cold starts to press down and meet southern low pressure.  This could be happening by Mon-Tues, not Feb 1.  Am I missing something?  Actually what it missing is cold air.  I wonder if that can trend better for us.

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