USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Any chance this storm produces its own cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Past d6-7? Why? If your spring is low 40s and near and below freezing at night I guses you are correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 A storm that strengthens to 986mb offshore of the New England coastline could produce its own cold air, and depending on how strong this northern piece of shortwave energy which we won't know for another 72 hours, then this could be a much stronger push of cold air into the storm and strengthen it below 980mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Major block with little cold air, not my pattern for snow, but northeasterly winds for about three days should produce rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If your spring is low 40s and near and below freezing at night I guses you are correct Go look at my edit long before you quoted me. That said, don't sugar coat spring here-it blows. Big changes afoot for widespread winter but I believe 2 weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 We can still get snow out of this lame pattern, but it will take a lot of dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If your spring is low 40s and near and below freezing at night I guses you are correct Ginxy, the Colonel of Cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Ginxy, the Colonel of Cold. King of the frigidaires, the sultan of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 hey, has anyone heard from Isotherm lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Nice little snow event north of pike on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nice little snow event north of pike on euro. Brings it to the pike. My work day near KBED Wednesday should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Definitely a tick colder. Looks good for Ray actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Lol. Euro is cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Brings it to the pike. My work day near KBED Wednesday should be fun. That's a good high pressing in. Always nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: King of the frigidaires, the sultan of snow. Spring? Lol you guys are nuts. Mega torch call fail big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely a tick colder. Looks good for Ray actually. 2 days ago you said Euro OP GW. It always takes a lot to convince you once you make up your mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Ray will get some revenge on me. I know he's waiting for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, 512high said: hey, has anyone heard from Isotherm lately? He posted this in the NYC thread yesterday: "I'm not impressed with the stratospheric progression through D 10-12 at least. Still no indication of baroclinicity / tilt; temperature rise is meager, and wave-1/2 grossly insufficient to induce the type of heat flux necessary as a prerequisite for an official warming event. However, as I've said heretofore, wave-1 amplitudes will probably continue to increase as we move into early February, and at this time, probabilities will be higher. On the very, very end of the D10 ECMWF stratosphere forecast, it's still far from a SSW/MMW signature to me. Extrapolating forward -- if the wave driving were to persist -- the official event would likely be another 10-12 days away. And of course, a SSW doesn't necessarily guarantee a blocky troposphere either, due to uncertainties regarding effective downward propagation. There will be a disruption sufficient to enable the development of tropospheric higher geopotential heights over the EPO/PNA domains and Canada, reflective of the strat progression. One possibility is that the MJO propagation can aid in slowing the North Atlantic jet temporarily w/ a transient -NAO period in the early part of February coincident with the PNA/EPO amelioration. Essentially, I still like the idea of the tropical forcing driven Pacific improvements, with potentially some ephemeral help from the Atlantic. But I am not thinking a SSW is on the way for at least 14-17 days. We will see what things look like in a few days. Want to see how the wave driving progresses. But right now it is insufficient to induce anything more than a temporary off pole displacement, then subsequent reconsolidation at the pole. I do expect the realization of stronger wave-1 in early Feb which is why I am not asserting that chances are zero -- it may occur in early Feb; but it is too early to say right now." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 2 days ago you said Euro OP GW. It always takes a lot to convince you once you make up your mind. It did go wild. The whole run. Not just this week. I also don't always side cold and snow 24/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's a good high pressing in. Always nice to see. Yeah...excellent point really! among the various detail headaches to keep track of for a marginal "little critter that could bite" .. I have been watching that high get like 2.61 mb stronger per cycle going back a couple days worth of runs.. .heh. seriously though, there's sort of step wise impulse now... A couple days ago, the bigger issue appeared to be whether these impulses could phse more, ...but now, it appears that they may not need to if the critical thickness are sort of saved by the bell... There's like three minor jet maxes associated with the splayed trough evolution and the 2nd and third get the high nose.. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: He posted this in the NYC thread yesterday: "I'm not impressed with the stratospheric progression through D 10-12 at least. Still no indication of baroclinicity / tilt; temperature rise is meager, and wave-1/2 grossly insufficient to induce the type of heat flux necessary as a prerequisite for an official warming event. However, as I've said heretofore, wave-1 amplitudes will probably continue to increase as we move into early February, and at this time, probabilities will be higher. On the very, very end of the D10 ECMWF stratosphere forecast, it's still far from a SSW/MMW signature to me. Extrapolating forward -- if the wave driving were to persist -- the official event would likely be another 10-12 days away. And of course, a SSW doesn't necessarily guarantee a blocky troposphere either, due to uncertainties regarding effective downward propagation. There will be a disruption sufficient to enable the development of tropospheric higher geopotential heights over the EPO/PNA domains and Canada, reflective of the strat progression. One possibility is that the MJO propagation can aid in slowing the North Atlantic jet temporarily w/ a transient -NAO period in the early part of February coincident with the PNA/EPO amelioration. Essentially, I still like the idea of the tropical forcing driven Pacific improvements, with potentially some ephemeral help from the Atlantic. But I am not thinking a SSW is on the way for at least 14-17 days. We will see what things look like in a few days. Want to see how the wave driving progresses. But right now it is insufficient to induce anything more than a temporary off pole displacement, then subsequent reconsolidation at the pole. I do expect the realization of stronger wave-1 in early Feb which is why I am not asserting that chances are zero -- it may occur in early Feb; but it is too early to say right now." thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It did go wild. The whole run. Not just this week. I also don't always side cold and snow 24/7. Who does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Who does? Really? Anyways that was nice to see. Wet snow FTW. Close for Boston but they may get some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 That high is on the back side of the vortex in Canada, so there is money in the bank despite high thicknesses. That would be good wetbulbing potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 I honestly think the northern stream energy for our storm on Wednesday turns into a formidable nor'easter, producing its own cold air and snow fall on the coastline with strong northeasterly winds at the surface and a digging upper level shortwave that closes off south of the large mid Latitude block. It sticks around for a few days at least. I think we can get a sub 980mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 I think EURO doesn't link up the disturbances like the GFS does and that is why the EURO is a little off on the storm potential for mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 He's echoing the exact same sentiments I opined re the SSW from yesterday.. The warming plumes that are being modeled, and/or sampled have yet to really demo as "SSW", which come along with a certain spectrum of behavior...ranging from magnitude, to motivation. Warm nodes in temperature appear and decay as part of mid to late winter climo in the stratospheric sigma levels of the atmosphere pretty commonly - they don't all present critical "down welling" and termination behavior entering the tropopausal depths. Not sure I see the evidence just yet for any of that - could change? absolutely! Additionally, there's an ~ 20 day lag between SSW and -AO. If one happened tomorrow... we'd be talking Feb 10 - and there is no guarantee that -AO off-loads its cold mass of our side of the hemisphere. There's that too. The problem is, the correlation between the AO with stratospheric temperatures as a static relationship is pretty noisy in the absence of actually SSW. I'd suggest folks put the ballast of their individual/collective attention toward the immediate teleconnector modes/modalities, and just remain tacitly aware of that possible contributor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: He's echoing the exact same sentiments I opined re the SSW from yesterday.. The warming plumes that are being modeled, and/or sampled have yet to really demo as "SSW", which come along with a certain spectrum of behavior...ranging from magnitude, to motivation. Warm nodes in temperature appear and decay as part of mid to late winter climo in that stratospheric sigma levels of the atmosphere pretty commonly - they don't all present critical "down welling" and termination behavior entering the tropopausal depths. Additionally, there's an ~ 20 day lag between SSW and -AO. If one happened tomorrow... we'd be talking Feb 10 - and there is no guarantee that -AO off-loads its cold mass of our side of the hemisphere. There's that too - I'd suggest folks put the ballast of their individual/collective attention toward the immediate teleconnector modes/modalities, and just remain tacitly aware of that possible contributor. Yeah it takes time. For me, it was just nice to see some disturbance of the vortex instead of a black hole from top to bottom. It's better for it to be disturbed. That's ok too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2017 Share Posted January 15, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nice little snow event north of pike on euro. Amazing how strong that high is... like 36 hours ago this was for like Sunday River and Sugarloaf. That high is so stout that it pretty much prevents more than an inch or two getting up that way on this EURO run. Just runs into a brick wall of dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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