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Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

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the marginality of the atmosphere needs to be augmented/assisted by dynamics ...that's sort of always been a prerequisite for this thing.  

it's definitely something to offset the notion of 'nothing to monitor', a point i tried convey several days ago actually.  

this still appears more of a central/N elevation depended thing - though the 0z Euro was intriguing.  and, i don't discount trends, probably not settled given to the fact that much of the dynamics is still being relayed out of the GOA ... subtle tolerances in marginal atmosphere means the difference in cold rain, wet snow, ...and even ice

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also, close to starting a new thread for a what think will be an emerging threat for larger scaled winter storm and/or transient pattern conducive for Jan 21 - 26

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27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Lock in the GFS haha.

IMG_4455.PNG

Not saying this will verify but I'm taking pleasure in the fact that a few days ago I was asking for more discretion to be used regarding location--NNE vs.'SNE etc. because NNE could still produce a good event with this pattern and this graphic basically paints NNE.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Not saying this will verify but I'm taking pleasure in the fact that a few days ago I was asking for more discretion to be used regarding location--NNE vs.'SNE etc. because NNE could still produce a good event with this pattern and this graphic basically paints NNE.

Yeah, in an earlier post. PF said he would have to eat major crow from you if it were to evolve that way. I await with bated breath and crossed fingers. 

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17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Not saying this will verify but I'm taking pleasure in the fact that a few days ago I was asking for more discretion to be used regarding location--NNE vs.'SNE etc. because NNE could still produce a good event with this pattern and this graphic basically paints NNE.

Yes you were right... I eat crow.

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24 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Yeah, in an earlier post. PF said he would have to eat major crow from you if it were to evolve that way. I await with bated breath and crossed fingers. 

I'm not concerned with temps for you, since you have latitude. But Vermont, in general, is a difficult forecast with this because you want the primary to fizzle to avoid warming the BL, but when the secondary develops the best dynamics are east of you. I think there will be a more N-S gradient in VT, as most of your snow will be from the primary wave. The euro is showing a lot of snow in SVT from an IVT feature. And as we all know, relying on that is a crap shoot. Not saying that can't happen --but the real risk (right now) is associated with that feature. 

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