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Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That's still two full weeks from today.  Hard to believe we go two full weeks without any type of weather excitement...and torch non stop at the same time.  That in and of itself is a long time for a thaw.

I wouldn't count on it being exactly as modeled. In fact this is a pretty crazy evolution.  Don't be surprised if by the end of the week you have a different outlook

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I wouldn't count on it being exactly as modeled. In fact this is a pretty crazy evolution.  Don't be surprised if by the end of the week you have a different outlook

That was exactly my point...14 days is a heck of a long time to go above normal at the coldest time of the year.  Your point is well taken.

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This next four weeks, as it should, is really going to define the tenor of this season. If we can't sustain a snowy stretch once this pattern flips....and I do mean snowy, not just cold, then the season is pretty rapidly heading for failure.

At least in my area...I know other locales have done better.

 

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its in my sig....16.5"....we start talking mid Feb, and I haven't doubled that, then I'm going to focus on spring training lol.

I don't expect that, though.

I'm on my phone, so I couldn't see that number. 

 

Im at 19.5 inches, just hoping to get to normal.

 

anyway to get the full site on ones phone??  I used to be able to get the full site on my phone, before they re-did the site. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

:weenie:

Probable is not the term I'd use in this pattern with regards to snow, even in NNE mountains. 

 

Much of Maine and the white mountain region of NH have seen above average snowfall this season despite being in a poor pattern, overall. Climatology is on my side. I'll stick with probable. 

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8 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Much of Maine and the white mountain region of NH have seen above average snowfall this season despite being in a poor pattern, overall. Climatology is on my side. I'll stick with probable. 

The pattern this winter so far seems different than what happens in the next 2 weeks.  We've done well here in the VT mountains too, and ME/NH had most of it in that one big 12-28" storm.

We can agree to disagree about snow being probable over the next 10-14 days...to me it's probable this is the most hostile the pattern has been for snow all year.

I get what you are saying too for the mountains...I mean can't rule out snow in January ever in the mountains.  I was just thinking relative to other patterns we've seen so far this winter.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The pattern this winter so far seems different than what happens in the next 2 weeks.  We've done well here in the VT mountains too, and ME/NH had most of it in that one big 12-28" storm.

We can agree to disagree about snow being probable over the next 10-14 days...to me it's probable this is the most hostile the pattern has been for snow all year.

I get what you are saying too for the mountains...I mean can't rule out snow in January ever in the mountains.  I was just thinking relative to other patterns we've seen so far this winter.

The main point I'm trying to hit home is that absent a Cutter crazy torch pattern or a jet stream suppressed well to our south, chances are we're going to get snow, and retain it. We have neither, which is why I say it's probable over the next two weeks. It takes very little to snow up here in mid to late January--such is the climate. That said, you don't have to go too far south from here where this context  makes any chance of snow remote.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

The pattern this winter so far seems different than what happens in the next 2 weeks.  We've done well here in the VT mountains too, and ME/NH had most of it in that one big 12-28" storm.

We can agree to disagree about snow being probable over the next 10-14 days...to me it's probable this is the most hostile the pattern has been for snow all year.

I get what you are saying too for the mountains...I mean can't rule out snow in January ever in the mountains.  I was just thinking relative to other patterns we've seen so far this winter.

Euro Ens have a different idea 

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I noticed the chance of snow for Maine and adjacent whites. Almost toward what the GGEM hinted at a couple days ago. 

ORH_wxman, shades are still down...should I raise in 10 days or so, do things look better on models for southern NH/Northern mass as of today or still in fantasy land, simple terms , is end of month/February looking good?

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6 minutes ago, 512high said:

ORH_wxman, shades are still down...should I raise in 10 days or so, do things look better on models for southern NH/Northern mass as of today or still in fantasy land, simple terms , is end of month/February looking good?

Keep them drawn until end of the month probably and check back in. Still looks good for a flip but no guarantees yet. 

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I know this is a no-no but the day 10 EURO is one of the oddest things you'll see in January.

Canada is quite warm with +3C to +5C H85s near James Bay...while the core of the cold of -6C over the mid-Atlantic.

Weird looking for sure.  With that High in Canada though it looks like that's probably some crazy inversion of warmth aloft.

ecmwf_pr6_slp_T_east_41.png

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