Hazey Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: It's a psychological thing that people do. It is a dicey situation which could develop but we won't know till like Thursday. Odds are against it but they aren't astronomical, especially at this time of the year. Oh I know. Lurked here, Eastern, and Ne.weather long enough to recognize the signs of hopeful denial...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Which amped up ECENS members are you referring to? I see 1 out of 51 that I would call "amped up."A few from the 0z gefs for Friday A few for Sunday as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Hazey said: A few from the 0z gefs for Friday A few for Sunday as well I agree there are some amped GEFS members. But the ECENS supported OTS. I just would rather people describe the model output in a way that is consistent with the model output. It seems to be a recurring issue with certain posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 12Z NAM 3K drops 8 inches on me tonight. Must be right. lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, klw said: 12Z NAM 3K drops 8 inches on me tonight. Must be right. lock it in. To bad it counts anything that falls as snow, Because a lot of that is not, But they do have that caveat at the top of the map assuming its snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: To bad it counts anything that falls as snow, Because a lot of that is not, But they do have that caveat at the top of the map assuming its snow. I've always interpreted that as just assuming a 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've always interpreted that as just assuming a 10:1 ratio. Probably more like 2-3:1 with sleet and zr in the southern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've always interpreted that as just assuming a 10:1 ratio. Ray , I know in your blog you said that January is going to be a good month for snow chances........you thinking later January?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Friday system is trending closer on the 12z gfs. Gets the cape and se sections of Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, 512high said: Ray , I know in your blog you said that January is going to be a good month for snow chances........you thinking later January?? I didn't anticipate it being confined to the latter portion, no. I don't think Feb will be a good month. The pattern may prove good in January, but we still miss out. It happens...would still impact my outlook, though. I like March and Jan....Dec normal, lackluster Feb with PV lifting toward AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hazey said: Friday system is trending closer on the 12z gfs. Gets the cape and se sections of Mass. It was shift to something more positive, But i don't think i would label it a trend at this point unless we get several runs to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 12z GFS now clips SE areas with the Friday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hazey said: Friday system is trending closer on the 12z gfs. Gets the cape and se sections of Mass. Ya would be nice to see this continue to for a few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Running out of time on the Friday event....Sunday doesn't look very good either but still some time to try and sharpen the east wall of that trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 No help from the northern stream for the second wave, Looks like it gets the boot east this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Wave two looks almost identical to 6z down in the gulf... if that is any indication... this run won't produce with that system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Really need to consolidate those 2 offshore lows depicted on the 12z GFS for sunday into one if we want to have any chance, Looks like a little IVT trys to get going as the northern stream s/w moves east with the low well offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Really hard to take a model seriously when it deepens a s/w off the coast 3mb's in 18hours. 1009mb at 66hr to 1006 at hour 84. Yeah ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Really need to consolidate those 2 offshore lows depicted on the 12z GFS for sunday into one if we want to have any chance hopefully the Canadian saves the day and I don't mean Hazey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Running out of time on the Friday event....Sunday doesn't look very good either but still some time to try and sharpen the east wall of that trough. When you say "sharpen the east wall: of the trough are you referring to more of a negatively tilted trough where this shows that's its kind of flat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: hopefully the Canadian saves the day and I don't mean Hazey lol, Maybe the IVT it tries to form will save us......................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Northern s/w was too slow. It is the reason for the inverted trough. Need that to speed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 GGEM is a whiff for Friday but a really solid hit for eastern areas on Sat night. Looks like advisory or low end warning stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Not close for the Sunday wave on the gfs. Try's to hang back an inverted trough, but we know how likely that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: lol, Maybe the IVT it tries to form will save us......................... the GFS shows that IVT @126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, db306 said: When you say "sharpen the east wall: of the trough are you referring to more of a negatively tilted trough where this shows that's its kind of flat? Yeah except you got the wrong trough I was referring to...that's the Friday event, and the one where sharpening the east wall of the trough is more realistic is the Sat night/Sunday event. Friday had a decent chance yesterday, but it has trended worse with the main s/w and too much downstream interference, so at this point, I'd prob focus on Sat night/Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah except you got the wrong trough I was referring to...that's the Friday event, and the one where sharpening the east wall of the trough is more realistic is the Sat night/Sunday event. Friday had a decent chance yesterday, but it has trended worse with the main s/w and too much downstream interference, so at this point, I'd prob focus on Sat night/Sunday. Ok...thanks for clarifying!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Northern s/w was too slow. It is the reason for the inverted trough. Need that to speed up. We need more interaction from the northern s/w digging further south with the southern one but looks like we have timing issues right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 You know, after seeing this inverted trough thing combined with the whole dual low structure and the almost due east movement, it almost makes me think its a timing issue. Like the Op is visually depicting what the ensemble members are showing. If you look at the 0z gefs images I posted earlier, you can see some ramped up solutions but also some timing discrepancies. Could be the OP is reflecting those issues in its run. Point being, would not shock me to see the Friday system ramp up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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