Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The ensembles def still show it blocky in E Canada...but since they are smoothed out, they aren't going to show the exotic solution the OP had...so while the OP might be out to lunch, it's not 100% unsupported by the ensemble pattern shown. You close off a block up near Hudson bay on that pattern, and all of the sudden it gets pretty weird with the pattern when you have a huge trough undercutting it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow... I just bothered to look at the 120 to 132 hour evolution as it is handled by the individual GEFs members - well...12 of them anyway. 

That's not far from being an NJ modeler there. 

4 out of the 12 members close that off at 500 from dynamic development/feed-back under our latitude...  

The operational version does show stream interaction with that impulse back over the western Lakes around hour 72 ... somethin'

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Not sure I agree with that.  In the means, we can see a deep negatively tilted trough in the lower Mississippi Valley, and anomalous high heights over the Canadian Archipelago.  

ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

About 1000 miles or more west of the op version.  It doesn't matter, it's clown range anyway but I don't think the EPS is selling what the op is selling other than a blocky pattern potentially developing but not necessarily on steroids.

 

That said, sometimes the op version is a good signal so we'll see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

??   I just mean it's a lousy look still unless we get some sort of fluky storm. I'm not going to bet on that. If it happens, great.

Hopefully bossman is correct with this

Northeast winter weather lovers really hope the ECM EPS is right, upper-air pattern would imply enhanced risks of big sloppy snows

C2FHhT-XUAALXWF.jpg
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's a parcel of dynamics out over the N-NE Pacific due to come in on a relatively flat, fast flow trajectory through the BC of western Canada... That impulse cuts into the NP and Partially closes off while interacting with eject SW trough - the two partially phase. 

Several GEFs 12z members bore that into the upper MA and generate a higher latitude Miller B/NJ model low... I stepped back to the 00z and the members had it but not as vehemently as the 12z...  

Not a complete dearth of anything to track - disagree there a bit.   You can't always have these dramatic orgies in the charts -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Any chance we could all use more discretion regarding these temp/forecasts being thrown around? New England is a big place...just sayin'

The absence of a general torch pattern in January in NNE means snow is not only possible, it's probable. And I'm talking all of NNE...

In NNE all of our snow events have been during poor setups/marginal air-masses this season. The global runs today look promising for a continuation of this--more sneaky surprises...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Any chance we could all use more discretion regarding these temp/forecasts being thrown around? New England is a big place...just sayin'

The absence of a general torch pattern in January in NNE means snow is not only possible, it's probable. And I'm talking all of NNE...

In NNE all of our snow events have been during poor setups/marginal air-masses this season. The global runs today look promising for a continuation of this--more sneaky surprises...

Dover,NH is almost sne-just saying.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's a typical crap pattern...it's going to average out well above average over next week and next weekend, but you cannot rule out something happening anyways...particularly with the blocky pattern in E Canada...something could get squashed underneath us. The airmass is putrid, but it's possible it could support a paste job in the right setup...esp over interior and up north. You might be 43/31 for hi/lo in the clear but a system moves in and you are 32/31 with wet snow.

Anyways, there's def change signaled after that.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's a typical crap pattern...it's going to average out well above average over next week and next weekend, but you cannot rule out something happening anyways...particularly with the blocky pattern in E Canada...something could get squashed underneath us. The airmass is putrid, but it's possible it could support a paste job in the right setup...esp over interior and up north. You might be 43/31 for hi/lo in the clear but a system moves in and you are 32/31 with wet snow.

Anyways, there's def change signaled after that.

 

Yea pretty much along the same line of reasoning. Although, I'm weighing the Euro more heavily, which would preclude next week/weekend verifying well above normal. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Any chance we could all use more discretion regarding these temp/forecasts being thrown around? New England is a big place...just sayin'

The absence of a general torch pattern in January in NNE means snow is not only possible, it's probable. And I'm talking all of NNE...

:weenie:

Probable is not the term I'd use in this pattern with regards to snow, even in NNE mountains. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...