CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 SRFC temp anomalies are blood red. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Ensembles tell op to just shut up... Not sure I agree with that. In the means, we can see a deep negatively tilted trough in the lower Mississippi Valley, and anomalous high heights over the Canadian Archipelago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 The ensembles def still show it blocky in E Canada...but since they are smoothed out, they aren't going to show the exotic solution the OP had...so while the OP might be out to lunch, it's not 100% unsupported by the ensemble pattern shown. You close off a block up near Hudson bay on that pattern, and all of the sudden it gets pretty weird with the pattern when you have a huge trough undercutting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's torchy. Mild overnights. But not massive 50's its blocky. So things will countinue to mute ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Wow... I just bothered to look at the 120 to 132 hour evolution as it is handled by the individual GEFs members - well...12 of them anyway. That's not far from being an NJ modeler there. 4 out of the 12 members close that off at 500 from dynamic development/feed-back under our latitude... The operational version does show stream interaction with that impulse back over the western Lakes around hour 72 ... somethin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: But not massive 50's its blocky. So things will countinue to mute ftw Well if it makes you sleep better at night...whatever it takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well if it makes you sleep better at night...whatever it takes. Wil just told you the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wil just told you the same thing ?? I just mean it's a lousy look still unless we get some sort of fluky storm. I'm not going to bet on that. If it happens, great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 39 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Not sure I agree with that. In the means, we can see a deep negatively tilted trough in the lower Mississippi Valley, and anomalous high heights over the Canadian Archipelago. About 1000 miles or more west of the op version. It doesn't matter, it's clown range anyway but I don't think the EPS is selling what the op is selling other than a blocky pattern potentially developing but not necessarily on steroids. That said, sometimes the op version is a good signal so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ?? I just mean it's a lousy look still unless we get some sort of fluky storm. I'm not going to bet on that. If it happens, great. Hopefully bossman is correct with this Todd Crawford @tcrawf_nh 42m42 minutes ago Northeast winter weather lovers really hope the ECM EPS is right, upper-air pattern would imply enhanced risks of big sloppy snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well if it makes you sleep better at night...whatever it takes. So 43 instead of 50. Who the F cares. Absolute garbage next 7-10 days it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I'll still bet on some 50s. I mean who had low 60s and sun for yesterday 10 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I'll still bet on some 50s. I mean who had low 60s and sun for yesterday 10 days ago? Could easily be if we warm sector. I could see garbage air from Vim Toots fanny or some Tippy Tulip weather in that stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Take em down folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Ya take em down from 50 to 43 like RYAN said..right now there isn't much difference there when you come right down to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 20 minutes ago, CT Rain said: So 43 instead of 50. Who the F cares. Absolute garbage next 7-10 days it appears. Kevin is trying to save his tremendous snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Kevin is trying to save his tremendous snowpack He has no snowpack!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 26 minutes ago, CT Rain said: So 43 instead of 50. Who the F cares. Absolute garbage next 7-10 days it appears. Exactly. TBH, the warmer the better....if the pattern is boring, it may as well be pleasant. Holidays are over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 I mean if the euro is right...maybe somehow you get a fluke...but I think the more likely solution is just sort of boredom for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: One more CJ and Ray will put me in that cage and lower me into the Shawsheen River. Good stuff- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean if the euro is right...maybe somehow you get a fluke...but I think the more likely solution is just sort of boredom for a little while. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 We're either 38F and mank or 55F on some of these days...a lot of guidance has a high pushing down from Quebec so we may end up with the maritime airmass and be stuck in mank. We'll know a lot more as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 There's a parcel of dynamics out over the N-NE Pacific due to come in on a relatively flat, fast flow trajectory through the BC of western Canada... That impulse cuts into the NP and Partially closes off while interacting with eject SW trough - the two partially phase. Several GEFs 12z members bore that into the upper MA and generate a higher latitude Miller B/NJ model low... I stepped back to the 00z and the members had it but not as vehemently as the 12z... Not a complete dearth of anything to track - disagree there a bit. You can't always have these dramatic orgies in the charts - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Don't rush it folks. It probably won't be here in full before 1/30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 Any chance we could all use more discretion regarding these temp/forecasts being thrown around? New England is a big place...just sayin' The absence of a general torch pattern in January in NNE means snow is not only possible, it's probable. And I'm talking all of NNE... In NNE all of our snow events have been during poor setups/marginal air-masses this season. The global runs today look promising for a continuation of this--more sneaky surprises... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Any chance we could all use more discretion regarding these temp/forecasts being thrown around? New England is a big place...just sayin' The absence of a general torch pattern in January in NNE means snow is not only possible, it's probable. And I'm talking all of NNE... In NNE all of our snow events have been during poor setups/marginal air-masses this season. The global runs today look promising for a continuation of this--more sneaky surprises... Dover,NH is almost sne-just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 It's a typical crap pattern...it's going to average out well above average over next week and next weekend, but you cannot rule out something happening anyways...particularly with the blocky pattern in E Canada...something could get squashed underneath us. The airmass is putrid, but it's possible it could support a paste job in the right setup...esp over interior and up north. You might be 43/31 for hi/lo in the clear but a system moves in and you are 32/31 with wet snow. Anyways, there's def change signaled after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's a typical crap pattern...it's going to average out well above average over next week and next weekend, but you cannot rule out something happening anyways...particularly with the blocky pattern in E Canada...something could get squashed underneath us. The airmass is putrid, but it's possible it could support a paste job in the right setup...esp over interior and up north. You might be 43/31 for hi/lo in the clear but a system moves in and you are 32/31 with wet snow. Anyways, there's def change signaled after that. Yea pretty much along the same line of reasoning. Although, I'm weighing the Euro more heavily, which would preclude next week/weekend verifying well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 30 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Any chance we could all use more discretion regarding these temp/forecasts being thrown around? New England is a big place...just sayin' The absence of a general torch pattern in January in NNE means snow is not only possible, it's probable. And I'm talking all of NNE... Probable is not the term I'd use in this pattern with regards to snow, even in NNE mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 13, 2017 Share Posted January 13, 2017 no not much chance... people are going to post what they want - sorry... that's what this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.