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Model Mayhem II!

SR Airglow

By SR Airglow,
in New England

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Close the shades, Open them back up the last week of Jan

The 5 sleds sitting in my almost bare front yard are a stark reminder of the awful turn that this winter has taken every time I pull into my driveway.  I  should have moved them out back, where I don't have to look at them all the time.  :(

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

The 5 sleds sitting in my almost bare front yard are a stark reminder of the awful turn that this winter has taken every time I pull into my driveway.  I  should have moved them out back, where I don't have to look at them all the time.  :(

I have to blame someone for this and your name was the first to come to mind for upgrading...............lol, We took a big hit here as I'm down to 3-4" left

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I have to blame someone for this and your name was the first to come to mind for upgrading...............lol, We took a big hit here as I'm down to 3-4" left

True, but I didn't get a brand new one and didn't spend a lot of money on it so maybe the punishment will be short lived.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

True, but I didn't get a brand new one and didn't spend a lot of money on it so maybe the punishment will be short lived.

Was just going to say to both of you...head up to the County they are in great shape, and will most likely escape in fine shape from this thaw.  They have a LOT of snow up there!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

There is a semblance of 10 and 50mb disruptions beginning. Note I said disruption....nothing close to reversal yet. But disruptions are good too. And the GOAK trough that we have is a good precursor many times. 

Fwiw - ... the GFS has been pegging a quick onset of warm temperature plume in the 5 to 10 hPa level ... not huge but there nonetheless; that may be the flip side of the same thing you are seeing.  Which, 5 hPa seems like it must be half way to the moon ...but it's something. heh.  Anyway, it's out there after D7 as of yesterday.  Haven't looked today.  

However, let's remind folks that sudden stratospheric warming events have to really come with two constraints to be of the ilk that modulates the AO negative.  

One is 'down welling.'  The warm plume erupts into existence over roughly a week's time span, then ...starts moving downward in altitude. Eventually, it meets and passes into/through the tropopausal layers.  As it nears that termination altitude(s)... Theoretics kick in ... and as the physical equations show, this subtle inhibition to vertical motion ( because of the subsidence the warm layer causes ...) can slow/disrupt the entire cyclonic engine of the PV...  The result is a collapse of the PV cocentric strength, and it fragments ... leaving blocking ridge nodes and counter balancing troughs - that's the negative AO phase.   

   (As a primer:  the idea there is that the antecedent +AO help build yet trap cold air/thicknesses inside the the vortex, such that when it relaxes and the index goes negative, the cold air is fee to enter conveyors into lower latitudes)

So, because of all that, two is thus time dependence;  usually ... from observed eruption of warm plume to subsequent AO modulation takes ~ 20+ days. If a SSW took place in 10 minutes... we'd benefit (maybe) around Feb 10th.  But, not all -AOs are fair ...either.  That's an hidden rub there.  A -AO can dump over in Eurasia while N/A doesn't see much affect. That all comes down to how/where the hemispheric cold conveyors align.  Nice example of that is that inferno winter of 2006-2007, where it was routinely in the 50s and 60s clear to the first week of January. The AO finally tanked (after two historic 10 day periods of high), but for the first week or two of its descent our side of the Hemisphere seemed unperturbed and warm, while it molecularly halting all matter over China.  It's because it took longer for the conveyor (usually -EPO related) to set up enough over on our side. 

Anyway, that's the basic model for the SSW phenomenon.  

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512high

512high

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw - ... the GFS has been pegging a quick onset of warm temperature plume in the 5 to 10 hPa level ... not huge but there nonetheless; that may be the flip side of the same thing you are seeing.  Which, 5 hPa seems like it must be half way to the moon ...but it's something. heh.  Anyway, it's out there after D7 as of yesterday.  Haven't looked today.  

However, let's remind folks that sudden stratospheric warming events have to really come with two constraints to be of the ilk that modulates the AO negative.  

One is 'down welling.'  The warm plume erupts into existence over roughly a week's time span, then ...starts moving downward in altitude. Eventually, it meets and passes into/through the tropopausal layers.  As it nears that termination altitude(s)... Theoretics kick in ... and as the physical equations show, this subtle inhibition to vertical motion ( because of the subsidence the warm layer causes ...) can slow/disrupt the entire cyclonic engine of the PV...  The result is a collapse of the PV cocentric strength, and it fragments ... leaving blocking ridge nodes and counter balancing troughs - that's the negative AO phase.   

   (As a primer:  the idea there is that the antecedent +AO help build yet trap cold air/thicknesses inside the the vortex, such that when it relaxes and the index goes negative, the cold air is fee to enter conveyors into lower latitudes)

So, because of all that, two is thus time dependence;  usually ... from observed eruption of warm plume to subsequent AO modulation takes ~ 20+ days. If a SSW took place in 10 minutes... we'd benefit (maybe) around Feb 10th.  But, not all -AOs are fair ...either.  That's an hidden rub there.  A -AO can dump over in Eurasia while N/A doesn't see much affect. That all comes down to how/where the hemispheric cold conveyors align.  Nice example of that is that inferno winter of 2006-2007, where it was routinely in the 50s and 60s clear to the first week of January. The AO finally tanked (after two historic 10 day periods of high), but for the first week or two of its descent our side of the Hemisphere seemed unperturbed and warm, while it molecularly halting all matter over China.  It's because it took longer for the conveyor (usually -EPO related) to set up enough over on our side. 

Anyway, that's the basic model for the SSW phenomenon.  

Tip, that is good for us snow lovers..yes?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, 512high said:

Tip, that is good for us snow lovers..yes?

haha - ...take this this the right way, but when following an effort like that post comes this sort of question ... one cannot help but wonder if the person's eyes just glazed over; then they reverted back to the core reason they're here in the first place:  when snow - unga bunga.. 

Well hell.. not sure if you actually understood all that.. but the simplest way to say it is yes and no. 

It's just one of a few factors.. SSWs don't "cause" it to snow - no.  Hopefully your capacity to understand this crap is good enough to know that much. It's just another variance in the greater system of contrbuting factors ... A SSW may drill the AO negative. --> negative AO typically cools off mid latitudes -->  cold is needed for snow...etc.

 as a side note... i have been giving this some thought lately.  after 10 years of being on-off involved with public weather-related social media, i'm just not considering this: -- see, there's a conundrum/paradox in how to communicate this Meteorological schit.  This field of science, like any discipline in Natural sciences from geology to deep field astronomy, aren't really watered down into a simpler terms for J.Q. public usage when speaking about the 'how' and 'why' stuff happens - that's the job for on-camera weather bunnies, who don't need the 'science' to convey the end result of this madness.  All these names and phrases and sentences in the greater parlance of the field of Meteorological science ... they are not there just for sounding smart with big words. They don't really have another definition.  So, the cunundrum is... if one communicates the scientific aspects/theory and so forth of why it is not or is likely to snow (like at all), others think they are just being lofty in their word choice and it turns them off?  when the issue is, THE READER!   If folks want to get involved, take some responsibility and familiarize themselves so that when someone uses words like 'variance in a system of contribution' it doesn't just sound like big words but actually has some meaning.

but i digress... 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Ensembles have been consistent...that's a good thing. They keep showing the big flip.

 

I just want to see it get within 10 days to be confident in the magnitude of the flip. We'll know by early next week. The really big changes on the PAC side start occurring around 1/26...so theoretically that should be about 10 days out by Monday....the sensible wx changes before then most likely because we push the east coast ridge offshore (so we could get some type of event before 1/26 if timed well)...but the true flip in the Pacific occurs a bit after that.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles have been consistent...that's a good thing. They keep showing the big flip.

 

I just want to see it get within 10 days to be confident in the magnitude of the flip. We'll know by early next week. The really big changes on the PAC side start occurring around 1/26...so theoretically that should be about 10 days out by Monday....the sensible wx changes before then most likely because we push the east coast ridge offshore (so we could get some type of event before 1/26 if timed well)...but the true flip in the Pacific occurs a bit after that.

Agreed ... GEFs sort of wants it all sooner ... but (rumor has it) the EPS are waiting or not, still the two camps shaking hands on all that...  

The operational guidance doing every thing imaginatively possible and them some NOT to demonstrate the mode change in the hemisphere is bordering on comical.  

But like you intimated ...I'm almost wondering if it's like "crossing a threshold" - I wrote about that the other day, like we my be going along with 0 to look at then all at once, we're tracking something.  

...which brings me to something i'm noticing on this 12z GFS (not necessarily related to the stuff above).  It's only 72 hours out and this version really hones in on stream/dynamic interaction and phasing in the mid stream latitudes back over the eastern Plains/western Lakes region.  That system doesn't have much low level baroclinicity to work with in this fetid domain of mild puke air we see everywhere, BUT, ...heh, it's worth to note that anytime that sort of phase take place at mid levels the system brings along a boat load of dynamic -effective potential.  What's weird is that 72 to 96 hours out isn't that terribly far and the 00z Euro wants no part of that evolution ...curious what this run coming out in a hour or so shows with that evolution. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed ... GEFs sort of wants it all sooner ... but (rumor has it) the EPS are waiting or not, still the two camps shaking hands on all that...  

The operational guidance doing every thing imaginatively possible and them some NOT to demonstrate the mode change in the hemisphere is bordering on comical.  

But like you intimated ...I'm almost wondering if it's like "crossing a threshold" - I wrote about that the other day, like we my be going along with 0 to look at then all at once, we're tracking something.  

...which brings me to something i'm noticing on this 12z GFS (not necessarily related to the stuff above).  It's only 72 hours out and this version really hones in on stream/dynamic interaction and phasing in the mid stream latitudes back over the eastern Plains/western Lakes region.  That system doesn't have much low level baroclinicity to work with in this fetid domain of mild puke air we see everywhere, BUT, ...heh, it's worth to note that anytime that sort of phase take place at mid levels the system brings along a boat load of dynamic -effective potential.  What's weird is that 72 to 96 hours out isn't that terribly far and the 00z Euro wants no part of that evolution ...curious what this run coming out in a hour or so shows with that evolution. 

The EPS are free. You can view them yourself everyday 

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