Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Well .. the pattern has driven folks to The Love Connection. This is what it's come to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well .. the pattern has driven folks to The Love Connection. This is what it's come to Beats the love boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 44 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: You've blessed us with many elegant key strokes describing your child-like anticipation of the first warm, and inviting spring day where the young, supple skin of collegiate women finally emerges from beneath the layers of dank cotton and polyester, to receive the first kiss of the summer sun. One would think when a woman playfully winks at you, your approach would be...less harsh? You gotta step your game up, John. Ha ha ... if you say so. nah, you guys seem like you've really vested actual substance in this social media thing? Let me remind people, these are still faceless materialization of the electronic ether, voices devoid of the all important 60 to 80% of intonation and/or physical expression ... where communication is truly conveyed. It really sans that type of meaning you seem to assign to it. just let it go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 There will be plenty of melts in the coming 10 days because usually once we are in a mild pattern for more than a week with no immediate flip, things unravel around here. We're probably not gonna flip until February. Possibly the very end of this month but don't be surprised at the guidance rushing it. Hopefully we can sneak a marginal event in beforehand to stave off too much depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There will be plenty of melts in the coming 10 days because usually once we are in a mild pattern for more than a week with no immediate flip, things unravel around here. We're probably not gonna flip until February. Possibly the very end of this month but don't be surprised at the guidance rushing it. Hopefully we can sneak a marginal event in beforehand to stave off too much depression. With that said, do long range models show somewhat back to "normal winter" temps holding thru February or we torch again? maybe asking for a lot weeks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There will be plenty of melts in the coming 10 days because usually once we are in a mild pattern for more than a week with no immediate flip, things unravel around here. We're probably not gonna flip until February. Possibly the very end of this month but don't be surprised at the guidance rushing it. Hopefully we can sneak a marginal event in beforehand to stave off too much depression. I think as quickly as things are changing globally that the change this particular change happens the week of the 25th. The cold wil be there in Canada whereas last time we had to reload it. Imo it's back to normal that week, and then BN the following Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Or we could just get a clown GGEM solution from last night and never really torch much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I'm going to revert back to the ol' tried and true...it never snows on my birthday because it coincides with the January thaw...the 18th seems to be living up to my expectations...anyhow, looks like we all are just gonna sit back and wait this one out...in the words of Belichick "On to February" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 A thaw always brings out the insanity, followed by apathy then desertion. If this winter goes teets up this place will be a ghost town by mid February if not earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Christine Wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, dendrite said: We're not getting CAD everyday like that would imply, but it's not going to be the hyperbole 60s that Kevin likes to throw out either. There's no way MVL stays under 40F everyday given that H5/H85 look. No, def not. There will be an ebb and flow to it. Two days above 40, then several days well below. Obviously the stubborn surface CAD strongly favors points east at that latitude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think as quickly as things are changing globally that the change this particular change happens the week of the 25th. The cold wil be there in Canada whereas last time we had to reload it. Imo it's back to normal that week, and then BN the following i really agree with you. Almost ready to pull the trigger on another special 6-8 week period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: i really agree with you. Almost ready to pull the trigger on another special 6-8 week period. We pull and tug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 12z model suite got a lot more interesting for sunday night clipper/redeveloper deal. Low thickness fluff bomb potential. Lots of caveats...flow is pretty fast and southern stream interaction could be destructive. Gfs and gem are now on board for something somewhat significant...euro is closer but not quite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 GEFS are sweet-really nice look. It's coming! 2015 style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 12z model suite got a lot more interesting for sunday night clipper/redeveloper deal. Low thickness fluff bomb potential. Lots of caveats...flow is pretty fast and southern stream interaction could be destructive. Gfs and gem are now on board for something somewhat significant...euro is closer but not quite there. Yeah I've had one eye open to this for a few days now. Probably will be a late bloomer if it happens. Too late for most of the posters here. Could be favourable for you, Leo and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 19 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: 12z model suite got a lot more interesting for sunday night clipper/redeveloper deal. Low thickness fluff bomb potential. Lots of caveats...flow is pretty fast and southern stream interaction could be destructive. Gfs and gem are now on board for something somewhat significant...euro is closer but not quite there. For New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: For New England? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: For New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: No I was gonna say. It looksed like nada from what I saw. But, I figured, since this was the New England subforum and all... (I did a wink!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Maybe we should have Wow just add PEI, NB, & NS to the New England subforum name. They got no where to go to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Christine Wx. Lol Happy Valenties day, tippy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 Now this is a convoluted map. Above 0c reaches the arctic circle, while below 0c into Durango State in Mexico! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 I love the D7 Euro ...with the -10 C 850 mb isotherm basically aligning the 60th latitude across the entire breadth of Canada during the ides of January... No gw here ... all part of normal variability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 if you want to see a clown solution, check out the D10 Euro. edit: beaten to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 35 minutes ago, weathafella said: GEFS are sweet-really nice look. It's coming! 2015 style Oh man I hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I love the D7 Euro ...with the -10 C 850 mb isotherm basically aligning the 60th latitude across the entire breadth of Canada during the ides of January... No gw here ... all part of normal variability Certainly some weird maps in that run. -4c in North Africa that same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 45 minutes ago, weathafella said: GEFS are sweet-really nice look. It's coming! 2015 style Ahh Jerry..you just Jinxed it for sure now lol. 2015 was a special set up for you guys out East for sure...don't think that's coming through the door again just two years later. I don't think any of us should be thinking something Epic is coming...but a decent pattern that produces some decent fruit would be welcomed. Tempering Expectations might be the best way to go at this point imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 what ...? 2015 was an utterly different circulation construct... Not without some major over-hauling of the blue prints can the present plans be built into the 2015 Taj Mahal.. No, 2015 was about off-charts baroclinicity along the repeating arctic dump interface with mid to lower latitudes. It was about huge ratio 20::1 repeating poof bombs... where like 10 F cold butted up against seasonal norms along the OV... What's slated to arrive now is mid latitude PNA driven. Not much (though I wouldn't rule out some if the PNA gets amplified enough) Alaskan sector ridging ... but enough western ridge that deep moisture in marginal atmosphere cyclogenesis is the theme; and ... that's predicated on the assumption that as the PNA rises, the southern height wall actually recedes.. But I suspect it does.. One thing I am noticing is that the NAO is getting more legs in the GEFs derivatives for the 20th to the end of the month ...AO for that matter. Hell, ...there's even some weak semblance of stratospheric warming taking place as we type (but any dividends from ssw wouldn't be felt until later in February should one occur, given to the propagation rate/resulting time lag...).. Or not. I'm just reporting what they show right now, and the correlations as they are ... promote a better look. We just aren't seeing it in the operational runs very well... Particularly that kerfuffle of Euro model... I mean jesus. Yes it long range but wtf is that -it may be hung up between persistence and having to eventually capitulate to the paradigm shift... I dunno... Certainly sounds good written that way. Anyway, also, the MJO is still modeled to burst into a stronger Phase 1 ...that's western N/A ridge correlation, and with the PNA slated to rise... (oh god!) there's still some chance in my mind that even before the end of the month ...things suddenly break better (if perhaps just poorly situated in the operational model versions at this time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 12, 2017 Share Posted January 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: what ...? 2015 was an utterly different circulation construct... Not without some major over-hauling of the blue prints can the present plans be built into the 2015 Taj Mahal.. No, 2015 was about off-charts baroclinicity along the repeating arctic dump interface with mid to lower latitudes. It was about huge ratio 20::1 repeating poof bombs... where like 10 F cold butted up against seasonal norms along the OV... What's slated to arrive now is mid latitude PNA driven. Not much (though I wouldn't rule out some if the PNA gets amplified enough) Alaskan sector ridging ... but enough western ridge that deep moisture in marginal atmosphere cyclogenesis is the theme; and ... that's predicated on the assumption that as the PNA rises, the southern height wall actually recedes.. But I suspect it does.. One thing I am noticing is that the NAO is getting more legs in the GEFs derivatives for the 20th to the end of the month ...AO for that matter. Hell, ...there's even some weak semblance of stratospheric warming taking place as we type (but any dividends from ssw wouldn't be felt until later in February should one occur, given to the propagation rate/resulting time lag...) Anyway, also, the MJO is still modeled to burst into a stronger Phase 1 ...that's western N/A ridge correlation, and with the PNA slated to rise... (oh god!) there's still some chance in my mind that even before the end of the month ...things suddenly break better (if perhaps just poorly situated in the operational model versions at this time) Don't know if you subscribe to Weatherbell, but JB talks about just what you are talking about, and his ideas are very similar to yours with the MJO and the Strat starting to warm. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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