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Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They should crush that this year. 15 feet last week and forecasts for 15-20 more feet in the next 7 days . In a Nina of all things .

I think they're mostly done for the next week or so. The rains have been good for the reservoirs, but what they really need is a ton of snowpack in the Sierra to keep the charged through the summer. The Northern Sierra are now 10" ahead of the record, 218% or normal. 15" in a week will do that.

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the 18z GFS (for what it's apparently not worth ..) looked light mixy through the weekend.  That was a definite shift/modulation in the critical thickness medium while a couple three week means of some lift moved through.   Not such a clean polar high on this run...

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They should crush that this year. 15 feet last week and forecasts for 15-20 more feet in the next 7 days . In a Nina of all things .

They've done well in Ninas before. 07-08 and 98-99 come to mind...then of course how can you not mention 2010-2011.

Obviously Pineapple Express ninos are awesome but they can lay some duds in El Niño too...especially if it's weak. 

We may actually get into a weakish El Niño type pattern down the road. Still uncertain but if the ensembles are right, it could be very good.  

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25 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Oh' it's gonna' snow in February, I'm not concerned. 

I'll be honest, I'm shook. Might just be the hangover from last year but until I'm actually shoveling it, I won't be convinced. Mind you, I completely understand that a great pattern is capable of producing bupkis and that it could be good somewhere close and still not work out imby. I guess I'm gun shy. Having said that, I'm also grasping at any straw I can find, like thinking back to other bad stretches like 2005-06 and early 06-07. I don't know if I'm on the verge of melting but I can tell you that looking at my meager snowpack and the forecast for the week ahead does not give the warm and fuzzies. 

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34 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I'll be honest, I'm shook. Might just be the hangover from last year but until I'm actually shoveling it, I won't be convinced. Mind you, I completely understand that a great pattern is capable of producing bupkis and that it could be good somewhere close and still not work out imby. I guess I'm gun shy. Having said that, I'm also grasping at any straw I can find, like thinking back to other bad stretches like 2005-06 and early 06-07. I don't know if I'm on the verge of melting but I can tell you that looking at my meager snowpack and the forecast for the week ahead does not give the warm and fuzzies. 

Well, let's not kid ourselves, I'm prone to pessimism too since WNE and ENY no longer get big snows below 2500' but I feel some optimism going into 2nd half of winter.  I think we get a bombing, wound up, coastal hugger that is kind to those with longitude. 

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1 hour ago, ThatGirlWhoSkis said:

OMG...there's going to be a January thaw!!! Did you hear that folks...IT'S A JANUARY THAW! Aaaaaah...run for your lives!

 

;)

Wtf are you throwing a wink emoji at me? you think I don't get that?  

Obviously all that's in deference to something else - nobody ever doubted this was a thaw happening to occur in January. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wtf are you throwing a wink emoji at me? you think I don't get that?  

Obviously all that's in deference to something else - nobody ever doubted this was a thaw happening to occur in January. 

John, please don't scare her away. It gets lonely in here.

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gonna be more than one day sweetheart.

Just for sh*ts and giggles I looked at the major model snow maps for the next 10-days as a little deterministic summary.  

That is an impressive lack of snow for 10 days in January ANYWHERE in the northeastern North America.  Like 1" in 10 days for SLK/JayPeak/PittsburgNH tapering to a cumulative half inch of snow for Mansfield lol.  

I mean they are the weenie snow maps and nothing.

Going to be one boring ass 2 week stretch.

 

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I will say if we go a week and the pattern transition is pushed back (like Will and Coastal on here cautioned) say another week...the meltdowns might be spectacular.

This forum really hits its stride when in the midst of a 3 week winter hiatus in January lol.

Just throwing this out there to see what eventually transpires but our favorite week of the year looks once again to be prime territory for a phase change event. We watch and wait. In the mean time we torch, sucks but it is what it is and with any luck its forgotten

eps_slp_lows_east_46.png

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just throwing this out there to see what eventually transpires but our favorite week of the year looks once again to be prime territory for a phase change event. We watch and wait. In the mean time we torch, sucks but it is what it is and with any luck its forgotten

eps_slp_lows_east_46.png

Yeah Ginxy, it is what it is.  We wait in a holding pattern for now.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah Ginxy, it is what it is.  We wait in a holding pattern for now.

EPS temps for your hood actually are not crazy warm considering. in fact with the bases you have should be fantastic skiing with some corn. I will take advantage of that as I enjoy the warmer side of ski days.

KMVL_2017011200_eps_min_max_15.png

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Meh, girl or guy ... out-of-line is out-of-line... I hate it... because it reveals bias (usually) when that happens, and 'bias' I just want to ski off a f cliff (figuratively speaking of course..).

In a lot of philosophical ways, bias is what's gotten the world into a climate-ecological crisis, to go along with looming threat of global incineration by war fare (due to impending resource scarcity and meets with fight or flight at macro-scales... etc etc...). It's just a matter of how we cut up the justified pieces we've collectively operated with over decades.

While all of industrialized humanity stands around on the proverbial rail-road tracks, the iron has started to whir ... Yet, they squabble and conflict over the color shoes they are wearing.. Just about everything part and parcel to modern concern you witness in the media-based reality we are saturated with every day, means absolutely nothing...with no planet.

It reminds me of that cliche sort of scene in a dystopian thriller, when as the asteroid is careening through the atmosphere with humanity's fate written on it, there's inevitably some hopelessly self-absorbed person in unbelievable denial, gripping their brief-case full of money .. They'd have to actually be dead before they'd let go of it... 

- I write Science Fiction as a hobby so don't take it to heart. 

Having said all that, it depends on what model one chooses.  The Euro is attempting something I have not seen since 1998...which is to bring the actual core of the main band of westerlies so far S in the west that impedes on the Ba-hahaha-ja of California.  In fact, much of the WC of the U.S. ends up in the return east flow N of the jet stream and/or a COL in general.  That is a whopper of an anomalous circulation construct there... 

It's obviously not likely to materialize (you'd think) but, it shows that something is going on that's probably both rare and hard to explain. I have often thought of extended range (la-la) charts as often exposing the 'canvas' of the times.  The pattern that's constructed on that canvas may or may not represent it more ideally.. but usually not.  It does seem, when considering the roads we've come overall, over the last several weeks, that the Euro is sart of chipping away all the noise and telling us what that canvas is - fascinating. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh, girl or guy ... out-of-line is out-of-line... I hate it... because it reveals bias (usually) when that happens, and 'bias' I just want to ski off a f cliff (figuratively speaking of course..).

In a lot of philosophical ways, bias is what's gotten the world into a climate-ecological crisis, to go along with looming threat of global incineration by war fare (due to impending resource scarcity and meets with fight or flight at macro-scales... etc etc...). It's just a matter of how we cut up the justified pieces we've collectively operated with over decades.

While all of industrialized humanity stands around on the proverbial rail-road tracks, the iron has started to whir ... Yet, they squabble and conflict over the color shoes they are wearing.. Just about everything part and parcel to modern concern you witness in the media-based reality we are saturated with every day, means absolutely nothing...with no planet.

It reminds me of that cliche sort of scene in a dystopian thriller, when as the asteroid is careening through the atmosphere with humanity's fate written on it, there's inevitably some hopelessly self-absorbed person in unbelievable denial, gripping their brief-case full of money .. They'd have to actually be dead before they'd let go of it... 

- I write Science Fiction as a hobby so don't take it to heart. 

Having said all that, it depends on what model one chooses.  The Euro is attempting something I have not seen since 1998...which is to bring the actual core of the main band of westerlies so far S in the west that impedes on the Ba-hahaha-ja of California.  In fact, much of the WC of the U.S. ends up in the return east flow N of the jet stream and/or a COL in general.  That is a whopper of an anomalous circulation construct there... 

It's obviously not likely to materialize (you'd think) but, it shows that something is going on that's probably both rare and hard to explain. I have often thought of extended range (la-la) charts as often exposing the 'canvas' of the times.  The pattern that's constructed on that canvas may or may not represent it more ideally.. but usually not.  It does seem, when considering the roads we've come overall, over the last several weeks, that the Euro is sart of chipping away all the noise and telling us what that canvas is - fascinating. 

And what exactly do you mean by that John??  What is the Canvas likely to reveal, now that the Euro is chipping away at it??

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41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

EPS temps for your hood actually are not crazy warm considering. in fact with the bases you have should be fantastic skiing with some corn. I will take advantage of that as I enjoy the warmer side of ski days.

KMVL_2017011200_eps_min_max_15.png

Likewise in NH and ME. The mid levels are torched but as we've seen so many times this season, there will be stubborn surface CAD in NNE, especially the eastern half. If this was March the 850 mb warmth would be more concerning, as it could be overcome by a lack of snowcover and/or more intense ISR.

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17 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Likewise in NH and ME. The mid levels are torched but as we've seen so many times this season, there will be stubborn surface CAD in NNE, especially the eastern half. If this was March the 850 mb warmth would be more concerning, as it could be overcome by a lack of snowcover and/or more intense ISR.

We're not getting CAD everyday like that would imply, but it's not going to be the hyperbole 60s that Kevin likes to throw out either. There's no way MVL stays under 40F everyday given that H5/H85 look.

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29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

And what exactly do you mean by that John??  What is the Canvas likely to reveal, now that the Euro is chipping away at it??

nothing dramatic ... I just mean, ...if perhaps hypothetically, that the base-line pattern is -PNAP period. Whatever happens over top is always going to be fighting that return tendency.  The Euro run "seems" like it's removed all fight and is pure returned - if that makes any sense. 

But I don't believe that solution is going to happen at this time, whatever is really causing that look -

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39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh, girl or guy ... out-of-line is out-of-line... I hate it... because it reveals bias (usually) when that happens, and 'bias' I just want to ski off a f cliff (figuratively speaking of course..).

In a lot of philosophical ways, bias is what's gotten the world into a climate-ecological crisis, to go along with looming threat of global incineration by war fare (due to impending resource scarcity and meets with fight or flight at macro-scales... etc etc...). It's just a matter of how we cut up the justified pieces we've collectively operated with over decades.

While all of industrialized humanity stands around on the proverbial rail-road tracks, the iron has started to whir ... Yet, they squabble and conflict over the color shoes they are wearing.. Just about everything part and parcel to modern concern you witness in the media-based reality we are saturated with every day, means absolutely nothing...with no planet.

It reminds me of that cliche sort of scene in a dystopian thriller, when as the asteroid is careening through the atmosphere with humanity's fate written on it, there's inevitably some hopelessly self-absorbed person in unbelievable denial, gripping their brief-case full of money .. They'd have to actually be dead before they'd let go of it... 

- I write Science Fiction as a hobby so don't take it to heart. 

Having said all that, it depends on what model one chooses.  The Euro is attempting something I have not seen since 1998...which is to bring the actual core of the main band of westerlies so far S in the west that impedes on the Ba-hahaha-ja of California.  In fact, much of the WC of the U.S. ends up in the return east flow N of the jet stream and/or a COL in general.  That is a whopper of an anomalous circulation construct there... 

It's obviously not likely to materialize (you'd think) but, it shows that something is going on that's probably both rare and hard to explain. I have often thought of extended range (la-la) charts as often exposing the 'canvas' of the times.  The pattern that's constructed on that canvas may or may not represent it more ideally.. but usually not.  It does seem, when considering the roads we've come overall, over the last several weeks, that the Euro is sart of chipping away all the noise and telling us what that canvas is - fascinating. 

You've blessed us with many elegant key strokes describing your child-like anticipation of the first warm, and inviting spring day where the young, supple skin of collegiate women finally emerges from beneath the layers of dank cotton and polyester, to receive the first kiss of the summer sun. 

One would think when a woman playfully winks at you, your approach would be...less harsh? You gotta step your game up, John.

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