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Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

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Given it's 4+ days out, I'd def still keep an eye on it. If no energy is ejected from the west, then it's going to be nothing...but if a bit more energy comes out of the rockies, then it would push everything north a bit and also make it more intense. The trend has been weaker/less energy, but there's nothing to guarantee it stays that way.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The stout SE ridge assured this thing comes north with snows from NYC to SNH this weekend. It's not getting crushed south with that beast there lol

If there's no energy (or very weak energy), then it will just be put through a meat grinder with very little dynamics and we end up with nada or just flurries.

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It's interesting that NCEP is biting into the ice threat... 

We did mention a couple days ago that ice would be sort of intrinsic to the threat profile for that (at that time) late middle and extended range, because of that idea of polar high situated N...  so there's that too - 

Bottom line, there's not likely to be a deterministic idea on what is going to happen until a couple more days ...after which, that trough in the west decides to either eject pieces or come out en masse and interact with said confluence(s)...  The operational depictions right now are just a little bit better than meaningless ... even worse than normal.  i think Saturday night is actually the beginning of that entire uncertain period -

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19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The stout SE ridge assured this thing comes north with snows from NYC to SNH this weekend. It's not getting crushed south with that beast there lol

You're missing the other piece.  There's a 1040mb H over Montreal.  ANy system ejected will be put thru the grinder.  A weak s/w and it's a crappy system S.  We need a strong s/w coming out to give us a shot at anything.

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30 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You're missing the other piece.  There's a 1040mb H over Montreal.  ANy system ejected will be put thru the grinder.  A weak s/w and it's a crappy system S.  We need a strong s/w coming out to give us a shot at anything.

I see that high but I see waa coming up and over it being enhanced by high SST and moisture coming north. Imo the bigger worry is so much warmth aloft it's ice in SNE and snow in NNE

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We get it..you are down and out with the way the rest of the month is going. I'd suggest taking some away and off if you can't handle it emotionally. otherwise, it can affect your forecasts.

Good luck to your devastating ice storm for the pats game. Hopefully the goal posts don't collapse under the weight of ice.

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With no snow and 50's and 60's all next week..it will allow you to actually use and install your new Davis wx station that is still sitting in the box collecting dust

I need to find out what the sam hell is the matter with my snowblower before epicosity returns in Feb

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