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Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Goes positive but not until after this weekend when the storm threat is.

 

Essentially a neutral PNA and a neutral AO for this weekend's threat.

But in transition towards positive....Archambault.  (as a weenie I can throw around those terms, as if I know what I'm talking about)

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45 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

It goes pretty fast in the lower elevations and the summer is perfect wx by my standards.   Mild dry days and cool nights with no bugs.

It doesn't exist in the lower elevations of California.  It lingers into early summer after a big year.

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36 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It doesn't exist in the lower elevations of California.  It lingers into early summer after a big year.

Everything's relative I guess.. when I think low elevations I am thinking 5k-7k feet where most people live in the Sierra's.

I hit mammoth in the late 90's in July and recall typical Summer ground conditions weather the entire way except at the actual resort.  It's not like people outside the ski area are dealing with snow at that point.

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18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017011000/ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017011006/gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_40.png

oh I know its coming, the vortex is inevitable, and I very much expect some 50s and even a 60 or 2 down here along the south coast. I was just commenting on how the 6z surface was muting the full out torch here in the NE....kinda has the spring look to it, PA and NJ enjoys their 60s and 70s while we are stuck in the 40s and wishing for the warmth to break through. I hope the warmth breaks records, if it is not going to snow, I would rather turn the heat off and not pay for the oil...

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6 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I think next date to watch is the 18-19th period. Coastal threat has been showing on a few gfs cycles. It's warm right now and out there, but might be our next chance at something wintery.

The NAO dips and the PNA goes positive around that time frame...there might not be any cold air around at the time to help it.

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54 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That's 10 days from now...doesn't mean it's completely correct either.  Gonna mild up..but how much is the big question?  We don't live at 500mb either.  

that's kinda ugly for h5 when translating it to the sfc. the h85 and 2m temp anomalies are just as bad, but the h5 heights always have higher verification scores on the LR ensembles. even with a cold upper pattern you can get a biased warm prog at 2m.

i think i saw will mention yesterday that things were looking better at the end of the ens runs. the 6z gefs looked a bit better toward the end of the month too. pattern change begins 2/1 and complete by 2/15?

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