Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like you changed your tuneWell in all fairness, so did others as well. I heard "life support" tossed around last night. This system has been toying with lots of emotions...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I already admitted I was wrong and tipped the cap to folks that called it. Though the idea of 2 waves not happening and one interfering with the other was not correct Those were all viable solutions though, Glad its working out to a more positive for many folks on the board, Been a long drought for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Hazey said: Well in all fairness, so did others as well. I heard "life support" tossed around last night. This system has been toying with lots of emotions...lol. I was referring to his call 2 days back of this being a non event, Pretty obvious this was heading in the wrong direction after the 12z Euro came out yesterday and crushed the remaining hopes of many, I said yesterday, I would give to 12z today before i would have tossed the towel, Not that i have much of a stake in this, But for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 38 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Not really. This looks to be a run of the mill snowstorm. This isn't a Blizzard 2005/2015. Do you still stand by your call a couple hours back, that" Wholesale changes are not happening?" Cuz the 12z model suite has made some pretty dramatic changes for a lot of folks..if it's true? And it looks like it could be legit with the ingesting of the better sampled shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 EPS looks identical to the op Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I was referring to his call 2 days back of this being a non event, Pretty obvious this was heading in the wrong direction after the 12z Euro came out yesterday and crushed the remaining hopes of many, I said yesterday, I would give to 12z today before i would have tossed the towel, Not that i have much of a stake in this, But for others.Yeah you could say that was a bad early call saying Friday was the big deal and Sat/Sun was not a viable threat. I was a bit deflated too after yesterday's models moved east. Glad it came back and hopefully will vindicate my call I made after Christmas that this was the period to watch for eastern folks. Even if you miss out, atleast you had a 20" storm so that should ease the pain...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Hazey said: Yeah you could say that was a bad early call saying Friday was the big deal and Sat/Sun was not a viable threat. I was a bit deflated too after yesterday's models moved east. Glad it came back and hopefully will vindicate my call I made after Christmas that this was the period to watch for eastern folks. Even if you miss out, atleast you had a 20" storm so that should ease the pain...lol. I have no quams missing out, But an inch or two would help for cooling after the pack become a glazier after the rain/sleet the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: Yeah you could say that was a bad early call saying Friday was the big deal and Sat/Sun was not a viable threat. I was a bit deflated too after yesterday's models moved east. Glad it came back and hopefully will vindicate my call I made after Christmas that this was the period to watch for eastern folks. Even if you miss out, atleast you had a 20" storm so that should ease the pain...lol. Wait....we had a 20" snowfall? How did I miss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 EPS mean QPF is 0.25" from WST-BOS and 0.5" from MVY-HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wait....we had a 20" snowfall? How did I miss it?That quote was for Dryslot in Maine. Try and keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: That quote was for Dryslot in Maine. Try and keep up. Never have a problem with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, CT Rain said: EPS mean QPF is 0.25" from WST-BOS and 0.5" from MVY-HYA. What are you thinking for our neck of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Surface low developing off of GA coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 What are the odds we end up 30-50 miles further north and west with the second wave? 18z 3km NAM starting to peak my interest a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 hours ago, CoolMike said: What are the odds we end up 30-50 miles further north and west with the second wave? 18z 3km NAM starting to peak my interest a little. Garbage model, all of the NAM suite should be tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, qg_omega said: Garbage model, all of the NAM suite should be tossed You can't discount it completely though either ...especially as we continue to close in. However I wouldn't take it as gospel obviously either...it's another piece of guidance to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I'll take what the gfs is smoking day 8-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 13 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Thanks looking good. 18:1 ratios that is around 14" Just start here from now on. The BOX CWA (prior to our NH takeover anyway) averaged 10.7:1 Like Will said, you can push 13:1 in the far west, but Cape Cod is surely closer to 10 or 9:1. 13.3:1 is 75th percentile, so 3 out of 4 times you would expect a lower ratio snowfall than that. So forecasting something more than 15:1 is going to get you in trouble more often than not. You can find the climatology here (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm), but moral of the story is the only places in the country with an average of 15:1 are the LES zones, Intermountain West, and the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 18z GFS (OP) is a weenie run for NNE in the very long range. Looks like a conveyor of moisture just sets up along rt 2 in MA and just stalls out. It seems like a far-fetched and unlikely solution but its a nice break from crappy run after crappy run of the GFS for NNE. For this rank amateur its nice to have some semblance of hope even if I'm extremely skeptical of such a set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 10 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Just start here from now on. The BOX CWA (prior to our NH takeover anyway) averaged 10.7:1 Like Will said, you can push 13:1 in the far west, but Cape Cod is surely closer to 10 or 9:1. 13.3:1 is 75th percentile, so 3 out of 4 times you would expect a lower ratio snowfall than that. So forecasting something more than 15:1 is going to get you in trouble more often than not. You can find the climatology here (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm), but moral of the story is the only places in the country with an average of 15:1 are the LES zones, Intermountain West, and the Dakotas. The 13 to 1 I cited for ORH might be a little inflated too due to undercatch of precip during snow events in the ASOS era. It might be closer to 11/12 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1053 MB High NW of Maine next weekend with a cutter, GFS showing quite the ice storm in SNE before going over to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: 1053 MB High NW of Maine next weekend with a cutter, GFS showing quite the ice storm in SNE before going over to rain... Let's hope it trends south and colder like the other ones have this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 12 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Just start here from now on. The BOX CWA (prior to our NH takeover anyway) averaged 10.7:1 Like Will said, you can push 13:1 in the far west, but Cape Cod is surely closer to 10 or 9:1. 13.3:1 is 75th percentile, so 3 out of 4 times you would expect a lower ratio snowfall than that. So forecasting something more than 15:1 is going to get you in trouble more often than not. You can find the climatology here (http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm), but moral of the story is the only places in the country with an average of 15:1 are the LES zones, Intermountain West, and the Dakotas. Thanks for sharing, this is tremendous info! Amazing that the 50th percentile is exactly 10.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 anyone notice how cold low levels are foretasted next week during the cutter, large ice storm in upstate NY into Central / NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: anyone notice how cold low levels are foretasted next week during the cutter, large ice storm in upstate NY into Central / NNE. That extends right down into SNE and even NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 CMC and GFS para both show a big storm late next weekend.... drops 1-2 feet mid Atlantic into SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 After a terrible terrible 3 day torch...an ice storm setup is looking likely next weekend with a 1040+ high and overrunning precipitation over the shallow cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Well whatever happens next weekend, we closer the shades for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well whatever happens next weekend, we closer the shades for awhile. When do they open? With all the forecasts of a warm Feb... you wonder if this was it. Sort of like 1989 where it ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: When do they open? With all the forecasts of a warm Feb... you wonder if this was it. Sort of like 1989 where it ends Warm feb? Have seen that yet. Anyways I don't know...the 11-15 day looked terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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