CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Good. Hopefully I come out of my meeting to see the euro take my pants off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looking like the 12z suite has ingested some new data and it is having some favourable results, especially for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Pretty amped up s/w down south as the other models have shown on this 12z Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Definitely coming west of the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro definitely coming NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yep. It's coming Jerry,get us some numbers SE MA, Cape and RI including PVD-8 BOS-OWD-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Its faster as well then 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS may not be done trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The game is on. Nice reversal of fortunes. I guess one take away from this is your never really out until your out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Euro is def NW...not gonna be a big hit this run, but it brings advisory snow back into the BOS-PVD corridor probably after 00z run was basically a whiff outside of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 A tiny bit deeper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I would argue too that the mid-levels look pretty nice...probably better than the QPF output does. Not worth really parsing too much yet, because this is probably not the final solution given the notable changes we saw on the 12z suite across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Overall, Those were big moves at H5 on the models, Don't know how much more there is though, I think there is going to be a limit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 squeeky wheels, leo and james, get the greese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Overall, Those were big moves at H5 on the models, Don't know how much more there is though, I think there is going to be a limit. what's limiting in this situation? what will push it out ene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: what's limiting in this situation? what will push it out ene? Northern stream s/w, If its not going to get involved, Then we may want it to stay back to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I would argue too that the mid-levels look pretty nice...probably better than the QPF output does. Not worth really parsing too much yet, because this is probably not the final solution given the notable changes we saw on the 12z suite across the board. Yeah it really is a nice look at 500 mb. Wouldn't take much to see a pretty dramatic shift west with the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Northern stream s/w Here's where the PNA ridge comes into to play...a more amped PNA ridge will help push the lakes energy more south rather than east so that the southern stream has room to round the base and come up the east side of the trough....so we'll want to root for a more amped PNA ridge. A sharper southern stream can help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Here's where the PNA ridge comes into to play...a more amped PNA ridge will help push the lakes energy more south rather than east so that the southern stream has room to round the base and come up the east side of the trough....so we'll want to root for a more amped PNA ridge. A sharper southern stream can help too. Yeah looking at the 500 hpa dprog/dt from 00z to 12z the northern stream s/w didn't do much while the southern stream energy was sharper and the downstream ridge a bit sharper. It really helped pull it all back a bit farther NW. You can see on the 12z NAM/GFS soundings that really all the lift back here is coming from that sweet looking southern stream s/w. A classic 500mb omega bomb on the NW fringe. Just have to make sure we manage to saturate the whole column and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yeah it really is a nice look at 500 mb. Wouldn't take much to see a pretty dramatic shift west with the QPF. Yeah if you looked only at the H5 map between 60-66 hours, you'd think the precip would be quite a bit more expansive to the west than it actually is. At any rate, at minimum, this is a serious threat now rather than a hail mary. Still not sure if we can get more than advisory snowfall west of BOS-PVD...but there's a realistic path now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well I stand corrected. Good call Jbenidict, Jerry.. this is going to be 6+ river east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's where the PNA ridge comes into to play...a more amped PNA ridge will help push the lakes energy more south rather than east so that the southern stream has room to round the base and come up the east side of the trough....so we'll want to root for a more amped PNA ridge. A sharper southern stream can help too. Yeah, We would need it more south as it would help with the trough as well, It looks like the models are grabbing hold of the sharper more amped southern s/w now, So if that continues or even gets slightly better as well as the pna ridge continuing to be better as well, Then there should be more room for this one to come west, But still think there is a limit to how far west it really can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yeah looking at the 500 hpa dprog/dt from 00z to 12z the northern stream s/w didn't do much while the southern stream energy was sharper and the downstream ridge a bit sharper. It really helped pull it all back a bit farther NW. You can see on the 12z NAM/GFS soundings that really all the lift back here is coming from that sweet looking southern stream s/w. A classic 500mb omega bomb on the NW fringe. Just have to make sure we manage to saturate the whole column and stuff. Great post. Glad something sufficiently interesting may be on tap to pull you back to the board. Nice trends so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well I stand corrected. Good call Jbenidict, Jerry.. this is going to be 6+ river east I'm gonna believe you, Kevin, since I'm east of the river (Connecticut, I'm assuming, not the Charles) and I want it to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Congrats easterners and southerners. Someone nudge me if this moves a 100 more miles to impact me in GC or in Maine. 95% sure I'm on the sidelines at both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I remember Boxing Day went from a well out to sea miss, to a big coastal on 12Z runs, the WPC claiming model data problems/errors, 18 and 0Z all models on board for MECS HECS. And, as the next 36 hours unfolded, it kept trending more west and closer tucked in to the point that we didn't do particularly well n of CON. Our BW with 12-18 didn't verify. Maybe this can tuck in closer if it intensified explosively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Congrats easterners and southerners. Someone nudge me if this moves a 100 more miles to impact me in GC or in Maine. 95% sure I'm on the sidelines at both. As most know, I'm not a big Miller A fan................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: As most know, I'm not a big Miller A fan................... I'll take a miller Z at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 PNA is positive during the timeframe of the storm according to the graph from the 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 miller lite is fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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