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Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yeah i was looking at uqam meteocentre.  U have to squint to get a qpf idea. 

Same, lol...when the Quebec regional maps come out on uqam it will be easier to read.

 

Either way, this is definitely interesting for at least eastern MA/RI I think. We'll see if it can back in any further. I've always liked the PNA ridge amplifying in this one to help out...it's just a question of the southern stream sharpening up and keeping the lakes stuff far enough west to give room.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Same, lol...when the Quebec regional maps come out on uqam it will be easier to read.

 

Either way, this is definitely interesting for at least eastern MA/RI I think. We'll see if it can back in any further. I've always liked the PNA ridge amplifying in this one to help out...it's just a question of the southern stream sharpening up and keeping the lakes stuff far enough west to give room.

ANd the models have sharpened the trough ahead of the shortwave and have actually sharpened up the shortwave itself as well.

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

I barely forecast ratios that high for interior labrador unless the set up is perfect.  

Yeah 18 to 1 is really high...you need a good reason to forecast that. Usually fairly low wind and a deep saturated snow growth region with solid lift.

 

I used to go to about 15 to 1 semi-frequently in central MA...climo is 13 to 1 there anyway....but once you start counting on higher than that, it's a good way to bust.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Sorry how about 12:1 ratios, that seems reasonable.  I have had 35" and 33" storms respectively with major wind problems, didn't seem to hurt the snowfall rates.

That's because you had an obscene amount of QPF...you didn't get 33" because of 18 to 1 ratios.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

GFS is .852" of QPF as all snow, NAM is 1.4" of all snow, UKMET is .8" of all snow.  That is between 9-14" of snow, I expect that the models will come in stronger or further west with the positioning of the low as the shortwave energy gets resolved.

Better hope that they don't come too far west....

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah 18 to 1 is really high...you need a good reason to forecast that. Usually fairly low wind and a deep saturated snow growth region with solid lift.

 

I used to go to about 15 to 1 semi-frequently in central MA...climo is 13 to 1 there anyway....but once you start counting on higher than that, it's a good way to bust.

I usually start at 20:1 and can adjust as needed lol.

Like last nights 5-6" was probably 25:1 eyeballing it haha.

IMG_4315.JPG

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah 18 to 1 is really high...you need a good reason to forecast that. Usually fairly low wind and a deep saturated snow growth region with solid lift.

 

I used to go to about 15 to 1 semi-frequently in central MA...climo is 13 to 1 there anyway....but once you start counting on higher than that, it's a good way to bust.

Ha!  That's awesome that you know the climo for ratios

Anyhoo, I think I will have received more snow last night than I will be getting this weekend from the two events

Enjoy it James, etc

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Pretty big changes on the Euro through 24 hours...southern energy in rockies is quite a bit faster and the ridge is pumped up a bit more. That should help bring this closer....but we'll see how the rest of the run goes. The Great Lakes energy is important too.

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