mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Don't give up on this one until the overnight runs Thurs/Fri morn when the shortwave get sampled fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Well this sucks, threads do get worse because 95% of people on here miss out on snow. Will be 100% missing out with overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Seems that mid week storm next week has trended colder with front end snow. Any chance that can continue to improve? Oh boy, a bit of snow to be washed away with rain shortly after? Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Cold Miser said: Oh boy, a bit of snow to be washed away with rain shortly after? Sign me up. Not me....I'm done with the 1-2" front enders. If you don't get to it fast enough, it ends up a skating rink, and it isn't worth it. The first few times were fine, but I've had enough of that. I'd rather an all rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: Don't give up on this one until the overnight runs Thurs/Fri morn when the shortwave get sampled fully. That phrase is the weenie version of an onside kick. I know there is validity to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like a big storm for St. John's on the gfs. Not a total loss. They need more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: Looks like a big storm for St. John's on the gfs. Not a total loss. They need more snow. Lol. I think theyre both snow to rain attm. Weak continues to be the way to go this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Lol. I think theyre both snow to rain attm. Weak continues to be the way to go this year. You'll pull a net gain easy. Just be careful posting totals. I got wrist slapped for just wishing for snow...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Hazey said: You'll pull a net gain easy. Just be careful posting totals. I got wrist slapped for just wishing for snow...lol. Oh its definite a net gain. I wish we had managed the weak -nao that was being modeled. Better chance for a biggie. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I've always been counting on more Fri am than Sunday. This to me anyway was expected . Isn't the pattern to get a big snow Big snow at KTOL? Because I'm pretty sure we just did a couple nickels in consecutive hours bracketed by several hours of pennies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Oh its definite a net gain. I wish we had managed the weak -nao that was being modeled. Better chance for a biggie. Oh well.Winter isn't over. You guys get the biggies in late winter/early spring. Unless something drastic happens, you'll do very well this season. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'l say a few things about the weekend: one is that the key features at play out west are just now starting to slide onto the coast. We're kind of in the window now to 12z where if changes because of sampling are going to happen, it's now. Another is that the inverted trof has been a consistent signal for several runs in a row. That's the model's way of telling us there is strong support for ascent aloft. Without the surface baroclinic zone it produces the trof instead. But it is not out of the question that guidance is a little GGW with the southern stream because of convection. NWP likes to focus on the big latent heat output and can sometimes forget about the strong features in the northern stream as a result. It doesn't look great, and we're running out of time, but I'm not ready to toss the towel in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Also, Will mentioned it earlier regarding the Euro 12z run, the mid levels don't suck. E MA would do okay given the current set up, the queens will just have a little angst because of paltry QPF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Hazey said: Winter isn't over. You guys get the biggies in late winter/early spring. Unless something drastic happens, you'll do very well this season. Book it. That pos epo and pos pna could break it later lol. STJ does better with -pna/-epo couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 That pos epo and pos pna could break it later lol. STJ does better with -pna/-epo couplet.Well until that happens keep padding the stats. You're a seasonal total guy so it all counts. We should get enough of a fringe here to make it look wintery for a little while. Hopefully when I get my snowblower back from the shop, we'll get a good one in Halifax. Probably a blessing these two miss. Long driveway to shovel by hand...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GGEM grazes SE areas with storm two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 59 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: GGEM grazes SE areas with storm two Also produces a good sized inverted trough same with the GFS. NAM also produces it, waiting to see the EURO produce the same thing, but the models are very close in producing with that southern stream shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well Euro QPF ticked east again, but the mid levels actually look better organized for eastern areas. Still on life support though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 EURO coming in a hair more suppressed. Fork it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Well Euro QPF ticked east again, but the mid levels actually look better organized for eastern areas. Still on life support though. I don't think it matters at this point. EURO is probably a bit too amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think it matters at this point. EURO is probably a bit too amplified. I mean for me tonight it's not like it's going to push me into a likely PoP or anything. I know for most (all?) here a whiff is a whiff, but I'll be curious to see how close this is to a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Wow.....my old stomping grounds in Camp Lejune, NC....right on the ocean, gets 6" on the EURO, and 12" on the GFS....that is epic for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I mean for me tonight it's not like it's going to push me into a likely PoP or anything. I know for most (all?) here a whiff is a whiff, but I'll be curious to see how close this is to a scraper. I know what you mean....nothing wrong with your post. I personally couldn't care less because I'm blinded with frustration. Back to cutters after seeing the palm trees buried. Interesting- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow.....my old stomping grounds in Camp Lejune, NC....right on the ocean, gets 6" on the EURO, and 12" on the GFS....that is epic for them. Going to be a mess down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know what you mean....nothing wrong with your post. I personally couldn't care less because i'm blinded with frustration. It's really all I have to pay attention to tonight. I mean I could add day 8 grids for the rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It's really all I have to pay attention to tonight. I mean I could add day 8 grids for the rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6z NAM brings precip shield back to the northwest now for our Saturday/Saturday night storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6z stuff looked better in sE areas. Chris makes a good point to also key on the mid levels. That's important for me and why I want I see how it goes today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 How did the mid levels look on the 6z GFS? NAM was much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Finally the SREFs are in line with other models regarding our big storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.