Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I realize folk find me annoying ...but, you're all wrong... It doesn't matter. weak...strong... whatever, it just needs to pass through the key-whole latitude and longitude relative to either of those models. If it's week, closer in works. If it's strong, farther out is fine. That is, if we are looking... heh, make that, clawing and scraping and bargaining for any reason to justify a weather-related social media session... ( Oh, we try ... ad nauseam to deny anyway ... ) I was musing to myself on the couch last night ... can you imagine if somewhere, somehow, ... some way, a technology came into existence that could control the weather with the ease of an Xbox hand-held console? Better yet, only one human soul has access to that console - James from the Cape. Like... red button = heat wave. blue button = ice storm. blue - blue, red, bump twice = society halting cryospheric holocaust. I wonder if James or any person with such access and power would use it responsibly. Would they immediately think along the lines of mimicking nature's tenacity to find averages ...sometimes via relative extremes, but more often through a steady diet of banal deviation? Or would they cave into insidious personal morbidity and addictive personality obsession/co-dependence of cryogenic visions and start violently hitting blue-blue, red, bump twice... maybe that person would turn up dead - destroyed in the dark irony of their own passions, they are found entombed in a glacier, with an odd...eerily satisfied orgasmic grin frozen in eternal time. interesting. yeah... i'd still put all that at 50% or a little less for occurrence, the Sunday gig - One thing I do like about the entire synoptic (modeled) evolution through all that is the open wave structure. The persistent over-abundant gradient ...particularly in the ~ 35th parallel (that exists from f'n Japan to Europe for that matter!) is inherently a negative interference pattern to amplitude ..particularly the curvilinear form. The speed dynamics ...yeah, that too unfortunately. The reason (...again and again again) is that the wind everywhere is hauling ass; such that individual S/W's don't have as much mechanics force ...oh, who cares - the bottom line is, keeping the wave open, flat and fast moving fits with this general mode of the hemisphere. Anything that is modeled that fits, ...well, fits... That all said, I'm higher confident that midland wave strength will be there... I'm less than 50% for an impact much west of SE zones based upon the shear (no pun intended) uncertainty of whether the speed-flow rifle is pointed at the necessary key-whole to get it done. Not sure how that can be accessed at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I wish wave 1 would just sh*t itself and leave. As we have seen multiple times over the years wave spacing is not that big a deal if wave 2 is strong, it overwhelms any influences. A weak wave 1 over us with 2-4 would be ideal. I don't see what the hullabaloo is about a weak diffuse wave passing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I realize folk find me annoying ...but, you're all wrong... Actually, nearly all of my research supports this finding. I can heat up some pie charts if you are hungry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Zeus said: Actually, nearly all of my research supports this finding. I can heat up some pie charts if you are hungry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, Zeus said: Actually, nearly all of my research supports this finding. I can heat up some pie charts if you are hungry. shrooms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, Zeus said: Actually, nearly all of my research supports this finding. I can heat up some pie charts if you are hungry. I'd prefer a ven diagram if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 24 minutes ago, Zeus said: Actually, nearly all of my research supports this finding. I can heat up some pie charts if you are hungry. well played sir - well played... left my self open to the easiest tactic available to the pot-shot artist: put the word "me" in any context ...hadn't had morning coffee yet anyway, good luck with ur bargain basement mental alleviation tactics in engineering that event over the weekend - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I wish wave 1 would just sh*t itself and leave. Weren't we having this same conversation before the end of January 2015 Blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 do you guys qualify these "clown map" products ? ...or are they all just the same... the 00z Euro (probably has already been posted) was a James dream with 13 " out his way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: As we have seen multiple times over the years wave spacing is not that big a deal if wave 2 is strong, it overwhelms any influences. A weak wave 1 over us with 2-4 would be ideal. I don't see what the hullabaloo is about a weak diffuse wave passing. It's a precarious look where longitude has a huge effect on outcome. So, it does help to have wave 1 do all the things we have mentioned for any help. However, that's one small piece of the pie in this whole setup. Nobody said it was the only thing that mattered. I'm well aware of what a strong wave 2 low would do...but right now the 500 setup would need a little help there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: well played sir - well played... left my self open to the easiest tactic available to the pot-shot artist: put the word "me" in any context ...hadn't had morning coffee yet anyway, good luck with ur bargain basement mental alleviation tactics in engineering that event over the weekend - The AV club disbanded years ago, so I have no idea why you're still projecting. Take a little joke, love. Sometimes it's okay to let things land, even on your chin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, Zeus said: The AV club disbanded years ago, so I have no idea why you're still projecting. Take a little joke, love. Sometimes it's okay to let things land, even on your chin. oh ..heh, you're under the false impression that I was offended by that - wow. no, it was funny as hell - it's something I'd do if someone so egregiously left themselves open - although, social media in general is inundated with knee jerk skinless types with no balls. what the f is an AV club though - no idea what that means. nor the 'insight' into projecting - oh, you mean audio visual? okay, but not sure what the projecting thing is about. no, i think you're missunderstanding things there too. you think i post the way i do for affectation? no dude - get a grip. i post the way i do because of three reason: one, i like writing, i like writing; i don't just focus in snow and cold and winter affairs with the weather; i don't care to dance around the delicate sensibilities of those that do, and seem to get actually offended by those willing to discuss something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's a precarious look where longitude has a huge effect on outcome. So, it does help to have wave 1 do all the things we have mentioned for any help. However, that's one small piece of the pie in this whole setup. Nobody said it was the only thing that mattered. I'm well aware of what a strong wave 2 low would do...but right now the 500 setup would need a little help there. Agreed. Would really like to see the Shortwave come in hot tomorrow, when it arrives in the Pac NW and is better sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Some baby steps on the 12z GFS, but nothing too noteworthy. Plains s/w dives a bit more, ridging out west improves just a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Noted both of those, No smoking gun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Perhaps a hair slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Looks maybe a tad bit slower to me? All in all it looks pretty similar... maybe a hair better than previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Going to need to see more of an improvement soon then these small subtle nuisances, Those won't get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The GFS likes this idea of the IVT which gives me pause that this could be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Better inv middle finger perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: Going to need to see more of an improvement soon then these small subtle nuisances, Those won't get it done. Yup.... pretty insignificant changes as it relates to the big picture. Have more work to do than barely improving a few features. If nothing else the GFS has been pretty consistent on this type of solution for several cycles now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The ridge out west was better early on and the plains shortwave was digging further west too which are both good...unfortunately the combination of a crappier southern wave and the first event strengthening a bit more mostly offsets those improvements....I'd say a net positive trend overall on this run, but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Save a horse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Been in the saddle for a month plus, No need to get off it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Save a horse Right now my gut leans in that direction 70/30. Southern stream systems are not the forte of the GFS. I feel it dampens out/ignores the s/w in the southern tier a lot of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GGEM looks better through 72h than 00z did...so maybe we'll get a trend back in the positive direction after the worse result at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GGEM looks better through 72h than 00z did...so maybe we'll get a trend back in the positive direction after the worse result at 00z. Not enough...marginal improvement but still basically a whiff outside of the Cape which gets 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 That inv trough dumps. I'd rather the euro solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GGEM is another inv trough deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The 12z GFS looked better at H5, a stronger Great Lakes upper level low digging further west and a stronger neutral tilt. Also we have seen the southern stream disturbance trend weak in this time frame before only to come back stronger towards the beginning of the event. The inverted trough has been very consistent on the GFS and still ends up giving Cape Cod snow as the intense trough in the northern stream digs southeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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