Hoth Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: so the models still have no idea which wave will be more important, if Friday is back on for an inch or two or more se, then Kevin was right all along.... He was calling Sunday to be a whiff. It could be, but his rationale was take the small event Friday and discount Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Sunday is a Miller A and I'd be weighing the euro much more than any other model for that reason. In my experience the Euro has the best verification scores --to a greater than usual extent--with Miller A's. One positive trend I noted --towards' the euro--on the 0z GEFS is it has a defined surface low much closer to the southeast coast around hr 84. That's a prime location for rapid wave development and a track up the coast. I have also noted that models in general tend to underestimate downstream UL height rises due to latent heat fluxes as a potent shortwave traverses the northern Gulf. The one major caveat --as has been previously stayed here--is we need the Friday wave to remain strung out and east--as is currently modeled by the consensus--so it does not shift the baroclinic zone too far off shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Many models had c-1" already. His argument was that Friday was heavier and more likely overall. 3-6" for southeast zones hasn't not verified yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 You want Friday east so the baroclinic zone doesn't shift offshore? I don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: You want Friday east so the baroclinic zone doesn't shift offshore? I don't get it I think having it weak and west is fine. It will keep the BZ near the coast. What you don't want is a strong low either way. And what would be even better is having this thing spaced farther apart both in time and spatially, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Friday has limited potential compared to Sunday and some are more interested in bigger storms. However, If we can manage both than certainly nobody is rooting against snow. Wave 1 can leave the baroclinic zone closer to the coast and than Wave 2 starts intensifing a bit quicker with a better western ridge structure and a more amplified trough and than that nothern stream wave /artic front comes in and phases a bit faster there could be something tasty there but its a low probability. Need to see some movement towards the EPS once the models get some better sampling otherwise its another Euro being too amped at the day 4/5 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think having it weak and west is fine. It will keep the BZ near the coast. What you don't want is a strong low either way. And what would be even better is having this thing spaced farther apart both in time and spatially, but it is what it is. Yeah actually the ideal solution would be weak and almost over our fanny...would prob give us advisory snow while keeping the baroclinic zone very close. Anyways...the most likely solution looks like we get fringed by both unfortunately. But still some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, JC-CT said: You want Friday east so the baroclinic zone doesn't shift offshore? I don't get it No you don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, mimillman said: Guven where other guidance is now, I like more of a 50/50 blend of the ECMWF/GFS. I think we start to see more convergence in the 12z suite on both sides and the outer banks will cash in nicely. Wave 1 don't think is done moving west. Agreed. I think wave 1 still ends up being the bigger of the 2 for SNE. I'd expect that to keep coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Started a thread for the Rev Kev storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Started a thread for the Rev Kev storm. We seem to have multiple threads for these two systems. You, James, another one, and all the posts in the model mayhem II. Any chance we can merge these? Getting confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It's mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Sunday is a Miller A and I'd be weighing the euro much more than any other model for that reason. In my experience the Euro has the best verification scores --to a greater than usual extent--with Miller A's. One positive trend I noted --towards' the euro--on the 0z GEFS is it has a defined surface low much closer to the southeast coast around hr 84. That's a prime location for rapid wave development and a track up the coast. I have also noted that models in general tend to underestimate downstream UL height rises due to latent heat fluxes as a potent shortwave traverses the northern Gulf. The one major caveat --as has been previously stayed here--is we need the Friday wave to remain strung out and east--as is currently modeled by the consensus--so it does not shift the baroclinic zone too far off shore... Wouldn't you want the 1st wave more west jbenedet??? If it's more east then the zone is to far off shore to the east??? No??? It makes sense to me that the more west this first wave comes, the better the chance for Sundays deal to be closer to the coast. And of course if we could get the ridge out west to keep sharpening up and moving slightly west as well, that would help our storm amplify more so along the east coast...correct?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wouldn't you want the 1st wave more west jbenedet??? If it's more east then the zone is to far off shore to the east??? No??? It makes sense to me that the more west this first wave comes, the better the chance for Sundays deal to be closer to the coast. And of course if we could get the ridge out west to keep sharpening up and moving slightly west as well, that would help our storm amplify more so along the east coast...correct?? If you had it far enough east them it would help with wave spacing so I can see that line of reasoning...if you kept it weak and west then it would keep baroclinic zone close. There's multiple ways to help out the 2nd wave. But I don't think it is realistic enough to get the first one far enough east to create favorable spacing so the next best option would probably be almost over us while staying weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If you had it far enough east them it would help with wave spacing so I can see that line of reasoning...if you kept it weak and west then it would keep baroclinic zone close. There's multiple ways to help out the 2nd wave. But I don't think it is realistic enough to get the first one far enough east to create favorable spacing so the next best option would probably be almost over us while staying weak. Ok that makes sense on both ideas..thanks Will for the teaching! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Thanks Will for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yes Jerry the 6z runs of both models is what I was referring too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If you had it far enough east them it would help with wave spacing so I can see that line of reasoning...if you kept it weak and west then it would keep baroclinic zone close. There's multiple ways to help out the 2nd wave. But I don't think it is realistic enough to get the first one far enough east to create favorable spacing so the next best option would probably be almost over us while staying weak. Weak and west is a contradiction. If this goes west it's bc it's deeper. If it becomes deeper then the height FALLS and confluence on the backside of the system will be more significant, causing the following wave to head ots. We want a weak wave one so the height falls/confluence on the backside of it do not result in suppression of wave 2. Also I agree with your point regarding better wave spacing with a faster/more SE track of wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Weak and west is a contradiction. If this goes west it's bc it's deeper. If it becomes deeper then the height FALLS and confluence on the backside of the system will be more significant, causing the following wave to head ots. We want a weak wave one so the height falls/confluence on the backside of it do not result in suppression of wave 2. Also I agree with your point regarding better wave spacing with a faster/more SE track of wave 1. Or the SE ridge flexes and everything is NW which I have noticed. It does not have to be stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 So I think what we want is the Sunday system to evolve more slowly. What creates that? more amplified western ridge - this is happening as a trend over the last few runs sharper trough in the SE - also happening, and probably a result of the better ridge more ridging ahead of the southern low - the stronger the low down south, the better the ridging ahead, especially if there is convection? some sort of transient blocking - could this happen and if so how? what did yesterday's low do as it moved north - create any confluence? what could Friday's low do to help slow things down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAM continues to sharper the lead shortwave trough with regards to system number one, this could lead to a stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: NAM continues to sharper the lead shortwave trough with regards to system number one, this could lead to a stronger system. Hopefully that low slides right over my roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The best stuff is east of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It's definitely not sharper than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 James fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 First wave right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Or the SE ridge flexes and everything is NW which I have noticed. It does not have to be stronger. A positive contributor for sure. But the point I'm trying to make is a baroclinic zone draped SE of the BM is no problem for wave 2 if wave 1 stays weak and gets the hell out of the way. Positive feedback with a robust shortwave can easily push that zone northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: A positive contributor for sure. But the point I'm trying to make is a baroclinic zone draped SE of the BM is no problem for wave 2 if wave 1 stays weak and gets the hell out of the way. Positive feedback with a robust shortwave can easily push that zone northward. Yeah I wish wave 1 would just sh*t itself and leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah I wish wave 1 would just sh*t itself and leave. Some will enjoy their coating, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Better changes on the NAM. Seems like the s/w digging in the Plains and the SE ridge a bit further NW will help bring low closer on the NAM. Also ridge out west a bit further west and sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.