OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: Off to bed with the smallest of hope (only to have it crushed in the morning). No doubt if you hang on a couple more hours the 06z GFS will take care of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6z NAM brings almost a foot of snow to Cape Cod and Nantucket for the Friday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3kNAM drops a couple inches Friday in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 So the euro on Sunday is a total blizzard and all the rest of the 0z suite is nearly a whiff. This should be fun to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, Hazey said: So the euro on Sunday is a total blizzard and all the rest of the 0z suite is nearly a whiff. This should be fun to sort out. Intriguing set up. That's a lot of energy coming down through the Lakes early Sunday. The Euro obviously phases things a little sooner, and ends up tugging everything closer to the coast as a result. Now the inverted trough showing up on the GFS could be the model's attempt to try and combine the northern and southern stream, but it's just missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'll be curious if things change much with the upcoming 00z run. The ensemble sensitivity stuff pointed towards East Pac height fields playing the largest role in determining the second wave's track. Those height fields aren't forecast to come onshore the West Coast until sometime tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Intriguing set up. That's a lot of energy coming down through the Lakes early Sunday. The Euro obviously phases things a little sooner, and ends up tugging everything closer to the coast as a result. Now the inverted trough showing up on the GFS could be the model's attempt to try and combine the northern and southern stream, but it's just missing.Yeah agreed. That's what I was thinking all along with the gfs however the cmc and ukmet moving east and weaker, is kinda throwing me. I wasn't expecting that shift. Euro has been consistent so it's difficult to not give it weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Was there another sizable shift west on the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Was there another sizable shift west on the EPS? I would say it was another good shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I would say it was another good shift west. Now I'm aroused. Friday event came back..and perhaps weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yes sir, both threats are back on the table. NAM brings 6-12" to Cape Cod for the Friday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes sir, both threats are back on the table. NAM brings 6-12" to Cape Cod for the Friday system. 12"? I didn't see any NAM run that showed that range of total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Now I'm aroused. Friday event came back..and perhaps weekend You might want to keep you fly zipped for the time being. 31.8* at the Pit, 32* at Pit2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 12"? I didn't see any NAM run that showed that range of total. Apparently James likes to assume 20 to 1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes sir, both threats are back on the table. NAM brings 6-12" to Cape Cod for the Friday system. 12" for Friday? Not gonna happen. 6 likely won't either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Euro looked pretty decent but having it the western outlier is probably not gonna get it done right now. Hopefully 12z suite makes a good move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro looked pretty decent but having it the western outlier is probably not gonna get it done right now. Hopefully 12z suite makes a good move. Just saw EPS. Big bump west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just saw EPS. Big bump west Well it's usual dog walking the owner with them and the op. But we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well it's usual dog walking the owner with them and the op. But we shall see. There was more members /clustering NW than east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 5 hours ago, Rjay said: Trend on the Euro over the past 3 days. 0z runs only. The western ridge pokes up higher and further west with each iteration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4k Nam Fri..obviously a little GGW..it looks to me like a bit of an inverted trough sig there..but nice to see this event come back on models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: The western ridge pokes up higher and further west with each iteration Key. Good animation of how to get it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Continued nice changes in EPS in the longer range as we move towards pna pattern. That should reduce the cutter frequency if correct for mid January going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Guven where other guidance is now, I like more of a 50/50 blend of the ECMWF/GFS. I think we start to see more convergence in the 12z suite on both sides and the outer banks will cash in nicely. Wave 1 don't think is done moving west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'm looking at the CHH coolwx.com soundings for the NAM and GFS, they both give .9" of liquid as snowfall, assuming 12:1 ratios that is 11" for the Friday event only. GFS is 1.142" of QPF for both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I think we got it wrong yesterday regarding the first wave, the further west this one is the further west the second system comes in, I think we need the first system closer to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm looking at the CHH coolwx.com soundings for the NAM and GFS, they both give .9" of liquid as snowfall, assuming 12:1 ratios that is 11" for the Friday event only. GFS is 1.142" of QPF for both events. Is that 6Z for both gfs and NAM or 0Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I'm looking at the CHH coolwx.com soundings for the NAM and GFS, they both give .9" of liquid as snowfall, assuming 12:1 ratios that is 11" for the Friday event only. GFS is 1.142" of QPF for both events. Are you sure it's 1.142"? I'm only coming up with 1.141"...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 so the models still have no idea which wave will be more important, if Friday is back on for an inch or two or more se, then Kevin was right all along.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Many models had c-1" already. His argument was that Friday was heavier and more likely overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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