CT Valley Snowman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 not sure if these weatherbell images are allowed someone let me know if they are prohibited here is a closer look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Pretty sizeable shift there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not good Way better than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Possible but I can't see the members but the mean is quite a bit better Yeah big change from 00z last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 That's way better then last night... not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not good Fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Good to see several NW leaning members on the EPS. Nice shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 DT never ever wants to imagine a system turning more up the coast after it's been modeled to hit the Southeast or Mid Atlantic...so as others have said, that should bode well for a more northerly and westerly jog going forward lol. That mean looks a lot better to me as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Many more members with good hits from 395 495 SE we like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Correct me if I am wrong but the Weatherbell maps show good clustering to the west of mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Nice little clustering to the NW on the individuals... would be some good hits there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Good to see several NW leaning members on the EPS. Nice shift Yup... nice little NW leaning camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty sizeable shift there. Wake me up when it becomes a threat for GC or coastal Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Fish. For West Africa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Wake me up when it becomes a threat for GC or coastal Maine. That still won't make a difference since you'd still debbie downer the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That still won't make a difference since you'd still debbie downer the storm. They don't get coastal storms anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: They don't get coastal storms anyway. This can be interpreted a couple different ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Despite the decent trend, there's still a lot of work to do to get accumulating plowable snow to most of the region. Obviously things are looking much better for SE MA and perhaps RI. Watch the PNA ridge sharpen...that's pretty key. An amplifying PNA ridge will be like a "tailwind" for helping amplify the downstream trough....sometimes we have a weakening ridge out west and it acts as a headwind to storm formation. The reason it's nice to have the ridge building is because there's a little more uncertainty injected into the forecast still...what causes that ridge to amplify is a pretty big ULL out in the pacific off the coast that originates from the EPO region and retrogrades a bit. So we're not solely relying on a stronger shortwave to get a closer storm track. More uncertainty in the key upper air players can lead to larger shifts in our favor over the next few days...they could also lead to larger shifts against us, but given that the thing still needs a good nudge to the west, you'd rather have the high variance in models right now and take your chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Yep. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 all that ... but,... the system passing out of the west can't as effectively generate it's own s/w ridge part of the total wave space, because it's not differentiating against the flow enough to cause lead-side warm advection. that's fundamental and missing when prior to the wave mechanics getting east of the Rockies longitudes, the flow is already moving 90 to 100 kts at the critical DPVA levels... less DPVA, less UVM, less inflow of warm air, less latent heat --> less lead ridging rippling out head to help feed back on an earlier polar position in the total life span of the trough translation; system ends up flatter and faster. but there is that separate causal relationship... A sharp ridge in the west causes more southward penetration and the whole flow can "tip" more s-n ...waves don't need as much of their own mechanical power to find a more n turn if/when the flow bodily veers aloft. from my assessment, this latter synoptic 'type' is what we need to work with to get a Sunday shot to work out - ...some small chance that the S/W embedded just comes in obscenely strong then things start working back the other direction more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Ryan went with flurries Friday.. total whiff weekend and a mild Rainer next week sandwiched around cold shots. That's why we needed Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan went with flurries Friday.. total whiff weekend and a mild Rainer next week sandwiched around cold shots. That's why we needed Friday. Yeah - pretty ugly forecast. Onto severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan went with flurries Friday.. total whiff weekend and a mild Rainer next week sandwiched around cold shots. That's why we needed Friday. You know... he can change the forecast between now and Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan went with flurries Friday.. total whiff weekend and a mild Rainer next week sandwiched around cold shots. That's why we needed Friday. You needed an inch? There was never hope for anything more than that to begin with. But I know your just trolling for him to respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 He'd get 2 inches then worry about the pack as a warm cutter looms. Let's have some fun Sunday. Kevin you're a risk taker-roll em! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: You needed an inch? There was never hope for anything more than that to begin with. But I know your just trolling for him to respond. Until this morning Fri looked like a nice 2-4 inch type deal possibly 3-6. We lost that and likely weekend too. Friday always had the better chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: He'd get 2 inches then worry about the pack as a warm cutter looms. Let's have some fun Sunday. Kevin you're a risk taker-roll em! Hey I hope it happens. Waiting for Jbendict to start the thread. He was really gung ho on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Until this morning Fri looked like a nice 2-4 inch type deal possibly 3-6. We lost that and likely weekend too. Friday always had the better chance Friday was never 3-6 for anybody... definitely not in the last few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 18z GFS is not good for wave 2... looks pretty much identical to 12z. Would like to see some positive trends on that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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