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Model Mayhem II!


SR Airglow

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Despite the decent trend, there's still a lot of work to do to get accumulating plowable snow to most of the region. Obviously things are looking much better for SE MA and perhaps RI.

 

Watch the PNA ridge sharpen...that's pretty key. An amplifying PNA ridge will be like a "tailwind" for helping amplify the downstream trough....sometimes we have a weakening ridge out west and it acts as a headwind to storm formation. The reason it's nice to have the ridge building is because there's a little more uncertainty injected into the forecast still...what causes that ridge to amplify is a pretty big ULL out in the pacific off the coast that originates from the EPO region and retrogrades a bit. So we're not solely relying on a stronger shortwave to get a closer storm track. More uncertainty in the key upper air players can lead to larger shifts in our favor over the next few days...they could also lead to larger shifts against us, but given that the thing still needs a good nudge to the west, you'd rather have the high variance in models right now and take your chances.

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all that ... but,... the system passing out of the west can't as effectively generate it's own s/w ridge part of the total wave space, because it's not differentiating against the flow enough to cause lead-side warm advection.  

that's fundamental and missing when prior to the wave mechanics getting east of the Rockies longitudes, the flow is already moving 90 to 100 kts at the critical DPVA levels...  less DPVA, less  UVM, less inflow of warm air, less latent heat --> less lead ridging rippling out head to help feed back on an earlier polar position in the total life span of the trough translation; system ends up flatter and faster.

but there is that separate causal relationship...  A sharp ridge in the west causes more southward penetration and the whole flow can "tip" more s-n ...waves don't need as much of their own mechanical power to find a more n turn if/when the flow bodily veers aloft.   from my assessment, this latter synoptic 'type' is what we need to work with to get a Sunday shot to work out -  ...some small chance that the S/W embedded just comes in obscenely strong then things start working back the other direction more.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan went with flurries Friday.. total whiff weekend and a mild Rainer next week sandwiched around cold shots. That's why we needed Friday. 

You needed an inch? There was never hope for anything more than that to begin with. But I know your just trolling for him to respond. 

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4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

You needed an inch? There was never hope for anything more than that to begin with. But I know your just trolling for him to respond. 

Until this morning Fri looked like a nice 2-4 inch type deal possibly 3-6. We lost that and likely weekend too. Friday always had the better chance 

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