ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 4:51 PM, OSUmetstud said: Yeah i was looking at uqam meteocentre. U have to squint to get a qpf idea. Expand Same, lol...when the Quebec regional maps come out on uqam it will be easier to read. Either way, this is definitely interesting for at least eastern MA/RI I think. We'll see if it can back in any further. I've always liked the PNA ridge amplifying in this one to help out...it's just a question of the southern stream sharpening up and keeping the lakes stuff far enough west to give room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 4:53 PM, OSUmetstud said: 0.8" Expand Thanks looking good. 18:1 ratios that is around 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 4:54 PM, ORH_wxman said: Same, lol...when the Quebec regional maps come out on uqam it will be easier to read. Either way, this is definitely interesting for at least eastern MA/RI I think. We'll see if it can back in any further. I've always liked the PNA ridge amplifying in this one to help out...it's just a question of the southern stream sharpening up and keeping the lakes stuff far enough west to give room. Expand ANd the models have sharpened the trough ahead of the shortwave and have actually sharpened up the shortwave itself as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ukie gets 2-4 back to KTOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Ukie 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 4:54 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Thanks looking good. 18:1 ratios that is around 14" Expand I would never count on ratios that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 And one for Leo and I...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 4:54 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Thanks looking good. 18:1 ratios that is around 14" Expand Oh god.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 4:58 PM, OSUmetstud said: I would never count on ratios that high. Expand Especially on the Cape where wind will be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 CAPE COD, the snow capital of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: Especially on the Cape where wind will be higher. Expand I barely forecast ratios that high for interior labrador unless the set up is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:02 PM, OSUmetstud said: I barely forecast ratios that high for interior labrador unless the set up is perfect. Expand Yeah 18 to 1 is really high...you need a good reason to forecast that. Usually fairly low wind and a deep saturated snow growth region with solid lift. I used to go to about 15 to 1 semi-frequently in central MA...climo is 13 to 1 there anyway....but once you start counting on higher than that, it's a good way to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Sorry how about 12:1 ratios, that seems reasonable. I have had 35" and 33" storms respectively with major wind problems, didn't seem to hurt the snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 James may get the same amount as places well west given mid level look. This one has a 2/7/03 look actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:08 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Sorry how about 12:1 ratios, that seems reasonable. I have had 35" and 33" storms respectively with major wind problems, didn't seem to hurt the snowfall rates. Expand That's because you had an obscene amount of QPF...you didn't get 33" because of 18 to 1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: That's because you had an obscene amount of QPF...you didn't get 33" because of 18 to 1 ratios. Expand potato, elephant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:10 PM, weathafella said: James may get the same amount as places well west given mid level look. This one has a 2/7/03 look actually. Expand Yep. It's coming Jerry,get us some numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Perhaps James's house will get 25:1 ratios. Aim high James, aim high...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: That's because you had an obscene amount of QPF...you didn't get 33" because of 18 to 1 ratios. Expand Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I would like a foot plus of snow, and models are showing this, but the GFS and UKMET, if the EURO comes stronger or west, than we are all in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:13 PM, Hazey said: Perhaps James's house will get 25:1 ratios. Aim high James, aim high...lol. Expand lol, sorry I got overzealous so sue me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS is .852" of QPF as all snow, NAM is 1.4" of all snow, UKMET is .8" of all snow. That is between 9-14" of snow, I expect that the models will come in stronger or further west with the positioning of the low as the shortwave energy gets resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:17 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS is .852" of QPF as all snow, NAM is 1.4" of all snow, UKMET is .8" of all snow. That is between 9-14" of snow, I expect that the models will come in stronger or further west with the positioning of the low as the shortwave energy gets resolved. Expand Better hope that they don't come too far west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18:1 on Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:04 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah 18 to 1 is really high...you need a good reason to forecast that. Usually fairly low wind and a deep saturated snow growth region with solid lift. I used to go to about 15 to 1 semi-frequently in central MA...climo is 13 to 1 there anyway....but once you start counting on higher than that, it's a good way to bust. Expand I usually start at 20:1 and can adjust as needed lol. Like last nights 5-6" was probably 25:1 eyeballing it haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:15 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: lol, sorry I got overzealous so sue me.Lol. Relax and deep breaths before posting. You're probably going to get a good amount of snow from these...even with normal ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:20 PM, powderfreak said: I usually start at 20:1 and can adjust as needed lol. Like last nights 5-6" was probably 25:1 eyeballing it haha. Expand eyeballing it, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 5:04 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah 18 to 1 is really high...you need a good reason to forecast that. Usually fairly low wind and a deep saturated snow growth region with solid lift. I used to go to about 15 to 1 semi-frequently in central MA...climo is 13 to 1 there anyway....but once you start counting on higher than that, it's a good way to bust. Expand Ha! That's awesome that you know the climo for ratios Anyhoo, I think I will have received more snow last night than I will be getting this weekend from the two events Enjoy it James, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 4:58 PM, Hazey said: Ukie 12z Expand That looks very nice. I am glad as well that the GFS is coming around to the storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Pretty big changes on the Euro through 24 hours...southern energy in rockies is quite a bit faster and the ridge is pumped up a bit more. That should help bring this closer....but we'll see how the rest of the run goes. The Great Lakes energy is important too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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