ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:07 PM, CoastalWx said: GGEM is another inv trough deal. Expand Yeah after the initial whiff, it hits BOS and the south shore pretty good actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:07 PM, CoastalWx said: That inv trough dumps. I'd rather the euro solution though. Expand For everyone else it blows but for my area it works. Again, I feel this is the GFSs way of resolving itself on what it sees as the baroclinic zone closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I would not place a rotten egg in an IVT basket if that's what some are relying on to get snow at this lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 That would probably be low end warning fluff job for SE MA and even BOS on the GGEM...but no point in getting too riled up over an IVT this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 WE should see the GFS resolve this better once the shortwave in the southern stream moves into the GOM region. Scott, Will how strong is the inverted trough deal on the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Keep up the improvements with the PNA ridge out west and get the lakes s/w to dive further south with an improved southern s/w, Is that to much to ask? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:10 PM, dryslot said: I would not place a rotten egg in an IVT basket if that's what some are relying on to get snow at this lead Expand Both verbatim were good at my hood, but I would rather the euro solution instead of playing mesoscale russian roulette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Both verbatim were good at my hood, but I would rather the euro solution instead of playing mesoscale russian roulette.I hear you on that you know that where they show now is not usually where they end up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Onto the EURO. Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Onto the EURO. Ukie? Expand Looks like a whiff. Maybe CC graze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 4:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Onto the EURO. Ukie? Expand Goes from around St Augustine, FL with a 1013mb low up to a 995mb low about 75mi SE of the southern tip of NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 GEFS a graze too. Some signs of inv trough as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Maybe a bit inside the GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Will be interesting to see if euro holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I'd be hard-pressed to say the Euro won't back down some at 12z but we've been suckered in like this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Whomever gets the INV trough in Sne wins...the rest will hope that wave 1 comes west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 This will be the one storm that the euro blows an engine in turn 4. Hopefully it leads the charge like the 28th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Well it's the euro against the rest of the guidance but it was also the euro against the rest of the guidance last weeks storm here as well and we all know how that worked out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Even the euro sucks for 95% of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Didn't see mid level low structure, tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Nothing wrong with 3-6 that the Euro had. Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:29 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Even the euro sucks for 95% of us. Expand That is if it doesn't come west a lil more than it was at 0z?? But I have a feeling it backs down some from it's 0z idea....I agree with Baroclinic Zone that it backs down as well. If it holds or even creeps west some...I think we have to start thinking that perhaps it has the better handle on this..?? Like it did last week with the system that buried NNE and Maine. 20 minutes and this chance could be toast...or kept alive to see another model run???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:31 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Didn't see mid level low structure, tho. Expand Believe it or not, the mid level look was sweet. I only speak about the 00z run, but it was a classic QPF queen run where QPF does not tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:40 PM, CoastalWx said: Believe it or not, the mid level look was sweet. I only speak about the 00z run, but it was a classic QPF queen run where QPF does not tell the story. Expand Yeah there would almost certainly be some weenie banding in E MA on that run. I expect 12z to look worse though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I know the Euro is the best model... but it's hard to discount the other guidance being pretty much nothing outside of a BS inverted trough. Id bet the euro looks worse than 00z. Will probably move towards the consensus of a close miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there would almost certainly be some weenie banding in E MA on that run. I expect 12z to look worse though. Expand While the minor improvements on the other guidance helped, I can't help but think it may correct east a bit. Maybe some sort of a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:40 PM, CoastalWx said: Believe it or not, the mid level look was sweet. I only speak about the 00z run, but it was a classic QPF queen run where QPF does not tell the story. Expand Ok...I suspected as much. Didn't get a chance to see it. I remain skeptical bc the EURO tends to be quick to amplify, as the NYC folks can attest to, along with Dendrite last week. I think it has the right idea, but may be too robust. Looks good for CJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:43 PM, CoastalWx said: While the minor improvements on the other guidance helped, I can't help but think it may correct east a bit. Maybe some sort of a compromise. Expand Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 5:43 PM, CoastalWx said: While the minor improvements on the other guidance helped, I can't help but think it may correct east a bit. Maybe some sort of a compromise. Expand Would compromise still drop some snow for all of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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