USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 11:49 PM, mimillman said: Is it totally incorrect to say the GFS is typically more progressive when it comes to coastal solutions? I would think a 70/30 blend of the ECMWF and GFS is appropriate currently. Expand Yes that is the modeled bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 11:07 PM, ORH_wxman said: Right, assuming it actually doesn't snow 3-6 on Friday....but saying it looked good a couple days ago isn't invalid or valid based on what happens on Friday. That's based on what models looked like a couple days ago and has a level of subjectivity to it. Two different arguments...and yes, it's really pointless to argue much about it. It's classic Kevin though. Expand It looked "better", absolutely.....but the idea that it wasn't going to materialize looks good, as evidenced by the both the current trends and the fact that this always looked minor at best. Semantics, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 10:08 PM, ORH_wxman said: There were some positives...PNA ridge was a bit better this run and the lakes s/w is digging more. Southern stream is still pretty crappy...so the sensible wx difference wasn't much. Expand Made me think if this is the typical GFS dampening out the the southern stream like we've seen historically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 11:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said: The point is.. Sunday always was the long shot. Fri looked good yesterday which was 4 days out. Sunday looks bad and it's 5 days out. Whether Fri was 1-3 or 3-6 .. it always had the better chance since we knew both weren't happening. So instead it appears we lose both unless you are James Expand I'm willing to bet that sne experiences a greater impact from the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 11:57 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Made me think if this is the typical GFS dampening out the the southern stream like we've seen historically. Expand Hopefully that is the case...and hopefully it is too progressive. 00z runs tonight will be pretty big. We can't afford any regressions...or its likely game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 11:51 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Yes that is the modeled bias. Expand Trends not withstanding, euro has a bias of amplifying too early, and this is developing too late as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:00 AM, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully that is the case...and hopefully it is too progressive. 00z runs tonight will be pretty big. We can't afford any regressions...or its likely game over. Expand 12z runs I say are the latest, after them if no more changes occur I will give up or say that a few inches is all we get here on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Trends not withstanding, euro has a bias of amplifying too early, and this is developing too late as is. Expand Which is why I think it is on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:00 AM, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully that is the case...and hopefully it is too progressive. 00z runs tonight will be pretty big. We can't afford any regressions...or its likely game over. Expand I could envision something where euro crushes, then rug gets pulled east kast minute...or just a hiccup run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/3/2017 at 11:28 PM, Damage In Tolland said: In all seriousness.. why are you so excited and sure we're all gonna get hit? Expand I'm not excited but intrigued. Friday never really had a mechanism other than a broad swath of modeled qpf. I wouldn't be surprised if Sunday trends bigger and Friday disappears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I could envision that the EURO does a trend setting run where it dives the arctic low into the trough and phases the two systems for a monster storm south of LI where Cape Cod and Islands are rain and interior snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:04 AM, weathafella said: I'm not excited but intrigued. Friday never really had a mechanism other than a broad swath of modeled qpf. I wouldn't be surprised if Sunday trends bigger and Friday disappears. Expand Why couldn't we get a weak version of Friday snow and then a monster low on the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:04 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I could envision that the EURO does a trend setting run where it dives the arctic low into the trough and phases the two systems for a monster storm south of LI where Cape Cod and Islands are rain and interior snowfall. Expand I cannot envision that scenario so close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:06 AM, ORH_wxman said: I cannot envision that scenario so close to the event. Expand Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:06 AM, ORH_wxman said: I cannot envision that scenario so close to the event. Expand Yeah well I have seen it before, January 2015 comes to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:00 AM, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully that is the case...and hopefully it is too progressive. 00z runs tonight will be pretty big. We can't afford any regressions...or its likely game over. Expand Agree on a more widespread event. For SE areas I'm waiting till 00Z Thursday before making any judgement. Wasn't bad verbatim from the 12z Euro and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:06 AM, ORH_wxman said: I cannot envision that scenario so close to the event. Expand I didn't say it would be the right scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:08 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I didn't say it would be the right scenario Expand The Euro isn't going to have a "Burp run" like 400 miles west of the current prog this close to the event. If it shows something like that, then it will probably be pretty close to correct...but it is extremely doubtful it happens. Just because there have been model errors in the past doesn't mean it's going to happen this time. It is rare to get errors more than a couple hundred miles once inside of 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:04 AM, weathafella said: I'm not excited but intrigued. Friday never really had a mechanism other than a broad swath of modeled qpf. I wouldn't be surprised if Sunday trends bigger and Friday disappears. Expand Nice way to describe it. Intrigued to me does not involve emotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:11 AM, ORH_wxman said: The Euro isn't going to have a "Burp run" like 400 miles west of the current prog this close to the event. If it shows something like that, then it will probably be pretty close to correct...but it is extremely doubtful it happens. Just because there have been model errors in the past doesn't mean it's going to happen this time. It is rare to get errors more than a couple hundred miles once inside of 4 days. Expand Thing is we don't need a correction to the west by that amount, maybe NYC does to get more than 12", but from ORH southeastward needs about 75 miles further west than we might be onto a 12-18" event for Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I think the ceiling right now is a solid warning event from ORH east...maybe a biggie in se MA/CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:11 AM, ORH_wxman said: The Euro isn't going to have a "Burp run" like 400 miles west of the current prog this close to the event. If it shows something like that, then it will probably be pretty close to correct...but it is extremely doubtful it happens. Just because there have been model errors in the past doesn't mean it's going to happen this time. It is rare to get errors more than a couple hundred miles once inside of 4 days. Expand ive seen 400 mile shifts 4 days out before....usually to screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:20 AM, Ji said: ive seen 400 mile shifts 4 days out before....usually to screw us Expand LoL JI!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Yes Ray, I think the worst case scenario in terms of most snow, warning event from ORH southeastward and advisory event to Springfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:04 AM, weathafella said: I'm not excited but intrigued. Friday never really had a mechanism other than a broad swath of modeled qpf. I wouldn't be surprised if Sunday trends bigger and Friday disappears. Expand Hope so .. but to this trained weenie.. my gut says nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:28 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Hope so .. but to this trained weenie.. my gut says nada Expand Nada for you? Very possible....I'd feel ok in se MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nada for you? Very possible....I'd feel ok in se MA Expand I like wave 2 for you a lot Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 1:00 AM, PB GFI said: I like wave 2 for you a lot Ray. Expand I feel decent, but need to see continued trends tonight. I don't want to be on the western edge of the EURO goods come game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 On 1/4/2017 at 12:57 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nada for you? Very possible....I'd feel ok in se MA Expand Almost none of us live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 How did the 18z gefs look? Any improvement over 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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