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January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Old??? It's the 1/1/17 run. They only run it once a month,  at least what they release to the non-paying public. Or, maybe you were just being facetious. Anyway, idk why we should believe the 12z run of the CFS when the prior 4 runs showed something contrary.  Or maybe you're being facetious again. 

I thought that's how the CFS was used.  Go with the latest run, especially if it shows what you want.

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/

These are run off 6z data.  Not sure where Ender gets his 12z run

tyvm i did a search and found this page. WB has a run labeled 12z, but wasnt sure it was te correct one, the MSLP section was interesting, a couple of coastals.

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Old??? It's the 1/1/17 run. They only run it once a month,  at least what they release to the non-paying public. Or, maybe you were just being facetious. Anyway, idk why we should believe the 12z run of the CFS when the prior 4 runs showed something contrary.  Or maybe you're being facetious again. 

It was a joke; a juxtapositional allusion to the CFS multiple runs per day approach to monthly and seasonal forecasting. 

As to the request for a link, I can't find a free site that will allow you to see today's 12Z set. Most sites are either a day or two old (TT is) or they blend the last X-days worth of runs. 

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57 minutes ago, nj2va said:

BN temps too.  Though I'm sure it'll be different the next time it runs. :)

That's the one I was referring to, but it's literally just the 12Z run. There've been multiple single cycle runs that looked far colder and multiple cycles that looked warmer. The Euro weeklies have been doing much the same lately. 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember back in December someone showed an analog based prog that showed what similar sst years looked like during periods of + neutral and - nao. The results during anything other then negative were pretty ugly and about what we have seen. Even JB admitted a while back that some of the factors were hostile this year but he was relying on a lot of blocking. We haven't had that and so the results have been what would be expected. Hopefully we can get a period of favorable blocking in February and salvage some of the season. Without it we probably can get another transient shot of cold or two and pray for good luck to score one or two snow events but that's about the best we can hope for imo without more nao help. 

It's interesting that the set of "snowy February" analog years, now based on five days of GFS, GEFS, and GGEM results, don't seem to have remarkable NAO or PNA averages for the month. They're all freaking cold as in 5F - 8F below longterm average, but the monthly NAOs range from -.5 to +.5 and average at -.1. The PNAs range from -.11 to 1.7 but average out at only .4. The AO, however, is either neutral or negative with an average of -.9.  

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3 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

I know that Wes recently reiterated that low height anomalies over Alaska spell major trouble for any winter weather getting here, but this is ridiculous. :weep:

 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

its becomming comical, based on d'aleo commentary, we seem to be stuck in the end of la nina, hence the la nada label. And the MJO signal of euro is complete the opposite of GFS.

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5 minutes ago, MDstorm said:

I know that Wes recently reiterated that low height anomalies over Alaska spell major trouble for any winter weather getting here, but this is ridiculous. :weep:

 

 

 

Yeah, you definitely don't want a trough over AK. The death nail, however, is when a strong PV sets up shop over AK. When that happens you can count on losing the next six weeks easily (if not the entire winter).  

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1 minute ago, mdsnowlover said:

its becomming comical, based on d'aleo commentary, we seem to be stuck in the end of la nina, hence the la nada label. And the MJO signal of euro is complete the opposite of GFS.

The MJO looks to be progressing rather quickly through 7 and 8 and then into 1 and 2, right? The problem is it's been decidedly low amplitude this season. It's been an almost useless index. If I'm remembering correctly, however, the upcoming P1 and P2 amplitude is about as high and amplitude as we've seen this winter? 

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48 minutes ago, Ender said:

It's interesting that the set of "snowy February" analog years, now based on five days of GFS, GEFS, and GGEM results, don't seem to have remarkable NAO or PNA averages for the month. They're all freaking cold as in 5F - 8F below longterm average, but the monthly NAOs range from -.5 to +.5 and average at -.1. The PNAs range from -.11 to 1.7 but average out at only .4. The AO, however, is either neutral or negative with an average of -.9.  

Yea that is odd that neither pna nor nao pop out as helpful. Of course a slightly negative nao and pos pna in combo can do it. Epo can help also. It's also possible that feb those months featured variability and the less favorable periods washed out the better in the monthly mean. But I know 1993 was on the list and it got there with anomalous high heights in western Canada but a positive nao. Of course we won't discuss how that winter ended. 2007 managed cold without much nao help and I always thought with just a bit better Atlantic that month could have been epic. I'd have to look at them all but those two pop out in my memory as cold without nao help. Perhaps that argues we can get a better month without it. Perhaps the PAC will evolve to a better look on its own. Seasonal progression could lead to a different look with the same variables I guess  

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea that is odd that neither pna nor nao pop out as helpful. Of course a slightly negative nao and pos pna in combo can do it. Epo can help also. It's also possible that feb those months featured variability and the less favorable periods washed out the better in the monthly mean. But I know 1993 was on the list and it got there with anomalous high heights in western Canada but a positive nao. Of course we won't discuss how that winter ended. 2007 managed cold without much nao help and I always thought with just a bit better Atlantic that month could have been epic. I'd have to look at them all but those two pop out in my memory as cold without nao help. Perhaps that argues we can get a better month without it. Perhaps the PAC will evolve to a better look on its own. Seasonal progression could lead to a different look with the same variables I guess  

:lol: Yeah, lets talk 93.

I'd trade 5 straight snowless winters to experience March 93 again, only this time before the 10th of February.  Wouldn't that be incredible.

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Yes ...this . 93 was mother nature on absolute steroids man. Incredible !!!!


i tend to think i wont see another 1993 like storm in my lifetime - in fact nothing out of the gulf has even come close since. it was probably a 100 year event and maybe more - but i do dream of being on the cold side of a bomb like that one day.


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37 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z para GFS was decent for next weekend... 2-4/3-5 for most if its all snow that is... 1050 H cruising by at the right time in Quebec

I am willing to bet in that type of set up CAD and sleet to Frz rain biggest issue north and west of the I-95 Corridor.....plenty of PAC air traversing the country...hey maybe an ice storm.

How is Truckee Cali doing??? Geeze they are getting smoked!!

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'93 was sweet! I worked at the Climate Analysis Center then as a coop and we went downstairs to hear the Map discussions. Fun times - one funny memory was that the group had a pool on what the total amounts of the Blizzard would be at National - the Secretary won with 6" guess! LOL! It was hilarious!

Getting off topic.  

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I lived in south central PA, at about an elevation of 1800 feet, during the 1993 Superstorm.  That was the closest thing to a hurricane I've ever experienced.  The howling winds broke our screen door.  By far, the strongest storm I've ever been through.  I doubt we'll see an atmospheric explosion like that in a long time.  

We were at the same location for the Blizzard of 1996...it was a prolific snow producer but the winds weren't nearly as bad.

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2 minutes ago, Inverted_Trough said:

I lived in south central PA, at about an elevation of 1800 feet, during the 1993 Superstorm.  That was the closest thing to a hurricane I've ever experienced.  The howling winds broke our screen door.  By far, the strongest storm I've ever been through.  I doubt we'll see an atmospheric explosion like that in a long time.  

We were at the same location for the Blizzard of 1996...it was a prolific snow producer but the winds weren't nearly as bad.

I was in Saratoga Springs for the North Eastern Storm Conference (Student AMS LSC hosted). I was a sophomore I think. We had a great deal of snow; 40 some inches. Winds sustained in the 45+ for a while there. I watched as a huge Cumberland Farms like gas station lost its gigantic covered pump station roof, you know those big flat things that cover six rows of gas pumps. The thing was lifting up in the air and smacking back down over and over for the better part of an hour before it finally started to get disassembled sheet by sheet. 

The snow ended and it was cold and windy as s--- the next morning. Jim Cantori, my college roommate (Bob) and I were out in the parking lot at about 7am shoveling out all the older guest's cars so they could get on the road (without a heart attack). We probably shoveled out a good 30 or so cars. Probably doesn't seem like much, but 43" of snow and insane gusts, along with plowed in walls of snow is quite a chore. It was an amazing time.

Lyndon had an attendance policy, though I never heard of it enforced outside of test/quiz/exam days. The morning after the blizzard was a class day, however, and a bunch of us had tests for late that morning. I remember it was like pulling teeth to get the president of Lyndon to forgive classes for us that day (alternative would have been a zero on the exams). She couldn't believe that the roads were so bad that we couldn't get back to NE VT in time. She finally relented and the students that had attended the conference were allowed to take their missed exams the next morning.  

http://www.saratogian.com/general-news/20130316/blizzard-of-93-which-occurred-20-years-ago-last-week-made-for-an-epic-weather-event-with-area-residents-memories-of-the-storm

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The snow started at 10pm on March 12. By 1am it was an inch deep. By 8am it was 8 inches deep. Then it changed to heavy, heavy SLEET. I was out on an EPIC jebwalk, and that 40 mph wind flung that sleet right into my face. Then it changed to heavy rain that simply POURED for hours. Later that afternoon it changed back to sleet then back to snow and we picked up 3 more inches.

I wish i could have been in the mountains where it snowed 3 feet deep. i would have been digging massive amounts of snow!

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10 hours ago, Ender said:

The MJO looks to be progressing rather quickly through 7 and 8 and then into 1 and 2, right? The problem is it's been decidedly low amplitude this season. It's been an almost useless index. If I'm remembering correctly, however, the upcoming P1 and P2 amplitude is about as high and amplitude as we've seen this winter? 

Yea Most of the mjo discussion has been a waste this year with it meandering in the COD most of the season. This current wave just now taking shape seems to want to get solidly into relevant territory. Not string by any means but perhaps worth being a factor again. At least what tropical forcing there is looks to move into favorable locations for a time on both gfs and euro projections. Maybe it can help, can't hurt. 

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