January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[BristowWx]

I have opposite view. Temps are more worrisome to me.  Yesterday would have be even less interesting without the temps.  Precip we do well on except when the cold is in place of course.  And what we did get would be long gone if it weren't for temps.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I have opposite view. Temps are more worrisome to me.  Yesterday would have be even less interesting without the temps.  Precip we do well on except when the cold is in place of course.  And what we did get would be long gone if it weren't for temps.  

I've lived in Winchester since 08.  Every below normal snow winter that we've had has been below normal precip. 

[kurtstack]

when a 1044 high over northern new york state cant get 850s below zero (euro at 144 hours) you know the pattern is bad


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[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

12Z CMC has a similar evolution as the 06Z GFS with ejecting a piece of energy ahead of the main low. Provides a Southcentral PA and MD jackpot of 3-6 in.

Think our chances would be better with this evolution, boundary sinking south through our region with a piece of energy running into CAD from the departing High, then depend on a well placed strong low in lock step with a northern high in conjunction with a southeast ridge. Think there is too high a probability of fail with that second scenario.

At least this will provide something to watch before we take a hiatus from serious tracking for a week or two.

Ggem and gfs are remarkably similar for that range. Both similar evolution. Ggem focuses the snow and ice across Maryland and southern pa. Gfs has the same feature about 50 miles north in pa. That's noise at that range. 

[psuhoffman]

Euro ggem gfs all showing the same idea just have the boundary different. Euro furthest north. Some ice D.C. North. Some snow in pa. Gfs in the middle. Ggem south with the snow across Maryland. 

[Bob Chill]

With the amount of moisture getting pushed into the hp, not only is there potential for a good ice storm somewhere, there could also be a major sleet storm. 

Imho- MD is most likely going to end up too far south for anything higher impact but there is pretty incredible ens consensus for a pretty sig ice and/or sleet storm in the mid conus for a 6 day lead. Someone is probably going to get a major ice event out of this. We're out on the eastern fringe so not nearly as clear. 

I'd be happy with a tenth of ice or anything wintry. There probably going to be nothing to track for 2 weeks after next weekend. I'm changing gears and rooting for warm sunny days and outdoor activities. If it's going to be a shutout pattern, may as well go big in the warmth dept. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think the euro forecast looks awful.  I'd much rather have sun and 60 as opposed to 30's and rain for days.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

With the amount of moisture getting pushed into the hp, not only is there potential for a good ice storm somewhere, there could also be a major sleet storm. 

Imho- MD is most likely going to end up too far south for anything higher impact but there is pretty incredible ens consensus for a pretty sig ice and/or sleet storm in the mid conus for a 6 day lead. Someone is probably going to get a major ice event out of this. We're out on the eastern fringe so not nearly as clear. 

I'd be happy with a tenth of ice or anything wintry. There probably going to be nothing to track for 2 weeks after next weekend. I'm changing gears and rooting for warm sunny days and outdoor activities. If it's going to be a shutout pattern, may as well go big in the warmth dept. 

Agreed on both counts. If we want a more wintery outcome next weekend have to hope guidance has the boundary too far north. Doubtful given that pattern but right now the best action seems aimed at PA and a couple times when I lived up there a gradient type storm aimed at us a week out ended up south. I can think of two 2014 alone. After that we can enjoy some nice weather hopefully and watch the signs of the next pattern chance. I see some hints we're getting close at day 15. Ridge migrates up into Canada. Final step is get it to retrograde west and force the low heights out of western Canada and AK and then it would flip. 

[mitchnick]

In light of the God awful heights pattern this season, I believe the default forecast in our area should just be the non-snow option until the atmosphere proves it can snow. Sometimes,  that's just the way it is.

[Ralph Wiggum]

So much for the front loaded winter predictions.

If the 2nd half of winter features no snow and AN temps, then this was actually a front-loaded winter relatively speaking.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Agreed on both counts. If we want a more wintery outcome next weekend have to hope guidance has the boundary too far north. Doubtful given that pattern but right now the best action seems aimed at PA and a couple times when I lived up there a gradient type storm aimed at us a week out ended up south. I can think of two 2014 alone. After that we can enjoy some nice weather hopefully and watch the signs of the next pattern chance. I see some hints we're getting close at day 15. Ridge migrates up into Canada. Final step is get it to retrograde west and force the low heights out of western Canada and AK and then it would flip. 

The last 2 times we had to come out of a bad pattern it was a drawn out step down pattern that took a while. If the +pna really happens then we wouldn't have to deal with a week+ step down. That's what I'm hoping for. Snapping out of the warm pattern instead of grinding out of it. You and me are going to be really bored for a while with weather models soon. Is what it is though. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

If the 2nd half of winter features no snow and AN temps, then this was actually a front-loaded winter relatively speaking.
 

 

LOL.  I was just about to post the same comment.  We may have already experienced the best of this winter.

[BristowWx]

It is only early January.  It could turn around in a hurry.  

[BTRWx]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

So much for the front loaded winter predictions.

And so much for SAI prediction of the winter AO.

I think we know who started that.

[mitchnick]

Heights are above normal in the east and remain so through the remaing GEFS run (384 hrs.) in the most persistent pattern you'll ever see at any time of the year. In fact, the 5H High remains absolutely locked in from 240-384 hrs. Impressive.  Too bad for all the wrong reasons. Lol

[Ender]

The operational Euro ends with a trof deep into the GOA, and an obscenely (almost seven standard deviations) positive EPO...and a (or "an almost") REX block over western Europe. To me that doesn't seem like a very stable configuration. It would be more stable with a corresponding REX block over the west coast of NA, but I can't see how we could get anywhere near that with two that Pacific ends on the Euro. In fact...with a little imagination you can almost see the positive anomaly over NE Canada progressing into Greenland while the positive anomaly over Scandinavia pops north to meet it....thereafter (not necessarily in this exactly sequence) it would seem that heights would tank in Europe, the negative anomaly over the GOA would progress into western Canada...the positive anomaly north of Hawaii would punch north to fill the void in the GOA...and, well...you get the picture...heights would plunge across CONUS and eventual the eastern third of the nation as a stable configuration is sought out. 

 

I'm bored. Not to mention desperate. 

 

 

[Yeoman]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Heights are above normal in the east and remain so through the remaing GEFS run (384 hrs.) in the most persistent pattern you'll ever see at any time of the year. In fact, the 5H High remains absolutely locked in from 240-384 hrs. Impressive.  Too bad for all the wrong reasons. Lol

Well at least we can take solace in it being a day 10-15 solution, which means it's just as likely to be totally opposite solution come reality.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Ender said:

The operational Euro ends with a trof deep into the GOA, and an obscenely (almost seven standard deviations) positive EPO...and a (or "an almost") REX block over western Europe. To me that doesn't seem like a very stable configuration. It would be more stable with a corresponding REX block over the west coast of NA, but I can't see how we could get anywhere near that with two that Pacific ends on the Euro. In fact...with a little imagination you can almost see the positive anomaly over NE Canada progressing into Greenland while the positive anomaly over Scandinavia pops north to meet it....thereafter (not necessarily in this exactly sequence) it would seem that heights would tank in Europe, the negative anomaly over the GOA would progress into western Canada...the positive anomaly north of Hawaii would punch north to fill the void in the GOA...and, well...you get the picture...heights would plunge across CONUS and eventual the eastern third of the nation as a stable configuration is sought out. 

 

I'm bored. Not to mention desperate. 

 

 

You highlighted what's definitely the best way out of the mess we're getting into. 

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Well at least we can take solace in it being a day 10-15 solution, which means it's just as likely to be totally opposite solution come reality.

I wouldn't have even mentioned it if the Euro ensembles weren't so similar. Hopefully,  the rubber band snaps by the time February rolls around ala Ender's or some/any other method. 

[MDstorm]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I wouldn't have even mentioned it if the Euro ensembles weren't so similar. Hopefully,  the rubber band snaps by the time February rolls around ala Ender's or some/any other method. 

I prefer the bathtub slosh (copyright Joseph Bastardi) way.  

 

MDstorm

[mitchnick]

Of course,  not that I'm predicting Feb is a fail too overall, but we'd be silly not to consider the Cansips since they/it has done well so far. Here's its forecast for Feb, which sadly looks a whole lot like its Jan forecast "in our area" below it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017010100&fh=1

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017010100&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=198

 

[frd]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Of course,  not that I'm predicting Feb is a fail too overall, but we'd be silly not to consider the Cansips since they/it has done well so far. Here's its forecast for Feb, which sadly looks a whole lot like its Jan forecast "in our area" below it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017010100&fh=1

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017010100&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=198

 

 

It actually portrays endless warmth  

Eh, I heard the Euro might be going with an EL Nino developing in the summer. 

  

 

 

[mdsnowlover]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

 

It actually portrays endless warmth  

Eh, I heard the Euro might be going with an EL Nino developing in the summer. 

  

 

 

actually according to joe de'aleo at weatherbell we're in a La Nada, which is between la nina and el nino

[Round Hill WX]

48 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Of course,  not that I'm predicting Feb is a fail too overall, but we'd be silly not to consider the Cansips since they/it has done well so far. Here's its forecast for Feb, which sadly looks a whole lot like its Jan forecast "in our area" below it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017010100&fh=1

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017010100&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=198

 

Be careful, the Weather Police will be on you for posting the CanSIPS. 

That said, its 1 month forecasts have been very good going back to the summer. But it shows warmth so many will dismiss it as a bad model because of that. 

[Ender]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You highlighted what's definitely the best way out of the mess we're getting into. 

I'm pretty sure that my fantasy is nearly impossible. Probably just as likely as my hope of seeing anything other than below normal heights from the Caspian northward. 

While the European control heads for -3sd NAO and AO towards the end of the period, those are misleading indices. On the one hand the positives over Scandinavia do pop up over the North Atlantic...right over GL and into NE Canada where they meet up with the impressive positive anomaly from Ontario. The result is a 4sd H5 anomaly centered over central Baffin Island and well above normal heights for GL...and modestly above normal heights over Alaska. But things are still progressive. Really progressive as the Pacific jet is screaming along at 200+ knots. Still I'd take that over the ECE mean. At least I think I would. 

The ECEM seems fairly confident of a 2sd H5 anomaly over Labrador along with decent confidence of a deepening Kamchatka trough. That then should lead to an Aleutian/W-AK ridge, which in turn leads to a trough thats too far west to make me happy. In fact I think it'd lead to the GEFS mean shown at day 16; and don't let those modestly below normal H5 heights across the southern tier fool you, there's no cold air on that map. We just need everything to move to the right by about 800 pixels (of if I drag the browser over to the screen on the right it'd only need to be 200 pixels). The 12Z operational GFS would probably be my "preferred" solution, but only because it looks like there's the beginnings of an Aleutian low and a ridge pumping up to its east. 

I suppose a positive way of looking at things is we have an impressive positive high latitude H5 anomaly on our side of the planet, the trough over Alaska doesn't look like it'll become a four to six week fixture on the map, nor does anything else at this point (except the +H5 feature over Baffin/Labrador). This is just going to take a good 15 - 20...or 25 days to sort itself out. 

[Ender]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Of course,  not that I'm predicting Feb is a fail too overall, but we'd be silly not to consider the Cansips since they/it has done well so far. Here's its forecast for Feb, which sadly looks a whole lot like its Jan forecast "in our area" below it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017010100&fh=1

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017010100&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=198

 

That Jan 1, initialized CANSIPS, that's the "old thinking". This is the new economy, I mean new H5 regime, those old rules no longer apply...

The CFS, initialized and run today at 12Z, shows a spectacular February. Just make sure you're looking at today's 12Z, definitely don't look at the prior four runs (or so). 

[mdsnowlover]

16 minutes ago, Ender said:

That Jan 1, initialized CANSIPS, that's the "old thinking". This is the new economy, I mean new H5 regime, those old rules no longer apply...

The CFS, initialized and run today at 12Z, shows a spectacular February. Just make sure you're looking at today's 12Z, definitely don't look at the prior four runs (or so). 

can you post a link. i have WB but not sure what to choose ty in advance

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, Ender said:

I'm pretty sure that my fantasy is nearly impossible. Probably just as likely as my hope of seeing anything other than below normal heights from the Caspian northward. 

While the European control heads for -3sd NAO and AO towards the end of the period, those are misleading indices. On the one hand the positives over Scandinavia do pop up over the North Atlantic...right over GL and into NE Canada where they meet up with the impressive positive anomaly from Ontario. The result is a 4sd H5 anomaly centered over central Baffin Island and well above normal heights for GL...and modestly above normal heights over Alaska. But things are still progressive. Really progressive as the Pacific jet is screaming along at 200+ knots. Still I'd take that over the ECE mean. At least I think I would. 

The ECEM seems fairly confident of a 2sd H5 anomaly over Labrador along with decent confidence of a deepening Kamchatka trough. That then should lead to an Aleutian/W-AK ridge, which in turn leads to a trough thats too far west to make me happy. In fact I think it'd lead to the GEFS mean shown at day 16; and don't let those modestly below normal H5 heights across the southern tier fool you, there's no cold air on that map. We just need everything to move to the right by about 800 pixels (of if I drag the browser over to the screen on the right it'd only need to be 200 pixels). The 12Z operational GFS would probably be my "preferred" solution, but only because it looks like there's the beginnings of an Aleutian low and a ridge pumping up to its east. 

I suppose a positive way of looking at things is we have an impressive positive high latitude H5 anomaly on our side of the planet, the trough over Alaska doesn't look like it'll become a four to six week fixture on the map, nor does anything else at this point (except the +H5 feature over Baffin/Labrador). This is just going to take a good 15 - 20...or 25 days to sort itself out. 

While a progression of the pattern east would be best I'm not sure I see that as likely. At least not forced from the pacific side. Every time the ridge in the North Pacific asserts itself it has been too far west to push the trough into the eastern conus with any regularity or stability.  This is supported by the sst there as well. Some things I just think we're stuck with and will be a factor we have to overcome if we want snow. That's one of them. If I assume that is the status quo when I start brainstorming ways to compensate or overcome that I keep coming back to blocking originating from the east and backing in. From where day 15 leaves us on both gefs and EPS the ridge is centered up over and east of Hudson Bay. Heights are beginning to rise in response near AK and Lower under it but as you point at as yet it does us no good. The ridge is still not far enough northwest and the conus is void any cold air. But from there maybe our best bet is the ridging to continue to lift north and hopefully as heights naturally lower under it retrograde west as well. The AK heights would then rise and eventually I would imagine heights would crash over the conus in response to reach a stable pattern. 

I remember back in December someone showed an analog based prog that showed what similar sst years looked like during periods of + neutral and - nao. The results during anything other then negative were pretty ugly and about what we have seen. Even JB admitted a while back that some of the factors were hostile this year but he was relying on a lot of blocking. We haven't had that and so the results have been what would be expected. Hopefully we can get a period of favorable blocking in February and salvage some of the season. Without it we probably can get another transient shot of cold or two and pray for good luck to score one or two snow events but that's about the best we can hope for imo without more nao help. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

can you post a link. i have WB but not sure what to choose ty in advance

It will change in 6 hours 

[mitchnick]

58 minutes ago, Ender said:

That Jan 1, initialized CANSIPS, that's the "old thinking". This is the new economy, I mean new H5 regime, those old rules no longer apply...

The CFS, initialized and run today at 12Z, shows a spectacular February. Just make sure you're looking at today's 12Z, definitely don't look at the prior four runs (or so). 

Old??? It's the 1/1/17 run. They only run it once a month,  at least what they release to the non-paying public. Or, maybe you were just being facetious. Anyway, idk why we should believe the 12z run of the CFS when the prior 4 runs showed something contrary.  Or maybe you're being facetious again.