January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[clskinsfan]

That mid month signal is there again on the 12Z GFS run. If nothing else it seems to be a consistent timeframe for some action on the models.

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gefs and eps both have enough events over the next ten to warrant interest.

NAO tries to go negative; AO does go negative; and PNA tries to go positive Jan 16-21 range. A time to key on.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Really big change on the gfs for this time next week.

[clskinsfan]

Pretty nasty torch at the end of the run. We need to score mid month I think.

[usedtobe]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Pretty nasty torch at the end of the run. We need to score mid month I think.

I think your chances were today, After the 10th the pattern looks bad and gets worse.   Never like seeing a trough over AK. That's bad fro us especially with the southeast ridge holding strong.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, usedtobe said:

I think your chances were today, After the 10th the pattern looks bad and gets worse.   Never like seeing a trough over AK. That's bad fro us especially with the southeast ridge holding strong.

Well. It hurts to hear that. Late January bass fishing I guess. Jig and pig time.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Superstorm said:

It's a battle ground between cold arctic air and very warm air south.

All depends on where that boundary sets up.

Thinks it's going to be a lot of sloppy events.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Interestingly enough....the Farmer's Almanc says the same thing about storm's for the rest of the month, lol

[BTRWx]

Might need to get the grills fired up for the Super Bowl and...I hear the incoming potus is against any agw legislation?

[psuhoffman]

The day 7-10 period is popping up again as a low level threat. The pattern flaws have been discussed but every guidance throws a 1045+ high through the lakes during that period while waves come across under it. At the least the period looks less torchy. But where the boundary sets up will determine our fate.  Gfs runs a wave through then gets a few inches back end as the high pushes.   Euro last night had some snow/ice with a front runner. Ggem last night timed it up perfect for a big front thump. Today's lost it. Euro control was a 6-8" storm. Ensembles have decent support for the chance. Better odds nw this time. Our problem is with the ridging storms will still try to cut and we could end up south of the boundary. But run a 1050 high through the lakes and good things can happen even in an overall crap pattern. Need timing but it's a shot. Low level but there. 

After that I think we torch bad in the 10-15 period. I don't see any way to avoid that. Good news is the end of the EPS continues to evolve as the weeklies suggested and on time. Day 15 looks like day 17 on weeklies did. The eastern ridge starting to retro north and west and the AK lower heights getting squeezed out.  The first stages of our exit strategy aren't getting pushed back yet. That could still put us on pace to be in a better look by feb. that's about the best we can hope for right now. Hold out hope for the high to come across south enough to score something day 7-8 then on to February. 

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The day 7-10 period is popping up again as a low level threat. The pattern flaws have been discussed but every guidance throws a 1045+ high through the lakes during that period while waves come across under it. At the least the period looks less torchy. But where the boundary sets up will determine our fate.  Gfs runs a wave through then gets a few inches back end as the high pushes.   Euro last night had some snow/ice with a front runner. Ggem last night timed it up perfect for a big front thump. Today's lost it. Euro control was a 6-8" storm. Ensembles have decent support for the chance. Better odds nw this time. Our problem is with the ridging storms will still try to cut and we could end up south of the boundary. But run a 1050 high through the lakes and good things can happen even in an overall crap pattern. Need timing but it's a shot. Low level but there. 

After that I think we torch bad in the 10-15 period. I don't see any way to avoid that. Good news is the end of the EPS continues to evolve as the weeklies suggested and on time. Day 15 looks like day 17 on weeklies did. The eastern ridge starting to retro north and west and the AK lower heights getting squeezed out.  The first stages of our exit strategy aren't getting pushed back yet. That could still put us on pace to be in a better look by feb. that's about the best we can hope for right now. Hold out hope for the high to come across south enough to score something day 7-8 then on to February. 

What gives me a little hope is that the cold with today's system won out generally screwing us, so being one who relies on seasonal patterns, it suggests that the strong GL High scenario you describe "could" happen. Otoh, the early seasonal pattern has been, in general, to find ways for us to fail, so there's that to keep in mind too. At least our peeps in sby did well. Congrats down there because they got screwed last January. 

[Kmlwx]

57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Interestingly enough....the Farmer's Almanc says the same thing about storm's for the rest of the month, lol

A blind squirrel may eventually find a nut. Just like Joe Bastardi will occasionally be correct. I don't think it's interesting so much as random luck. 

If an QB throws 50 interceptions and then throws a 90 yard TD pass it doesn't mean the QB made a good pass necessarily. Maybe it was the receiver doing all the work  

Long range forecasting is a pretty muddy part of meteo/climatology. Farmers Almanac and Old Farmers Almanac are not skill based at all. 

[snowmagnet]

Thank you all for your analysis of the upcoming patterns and model insight.  As a girl who just loves snow, looking forward to the next possibility of a coastal gets me through the winter.  I will remain optimistic for snow until at least the end of March because I know that we live in a crazy weather area!   I grew up in Southern MD where I frequently looked out my window to be disappointed, but also remember several big storms.  I've lived in FFX for the past 23 years, where I am still frequently disappointed (like Friday and today), but we have a good run for a few years.  I know there is always a chance of a sucky winter, (last year wasn't great, but we did get a HECS), but we do tend to have our biggest storms in February.  Isn't there always a 10 day storm to track?

 

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, usedtobe said:

I think your chances were today, After the 10th the pattern looks bad and gets worse.   Never like seeing a trough over AK. That's bad fro us especially with the southeast ridge holding strong.

Sorry guys...being totally selfish..love it.  Keep it like this until I get back on the 23rd, thanks.  

[NorthArlington101]

Any way to get Tuesday morning to trend back to being icy? Ens support for it is pretty lame.

[psuhoffman]

Op euro manages some mix but it hangs the main energy back then cuts. It's a 50/50 split between that and weaker progressive systems ejecting under the high on all the guidance. The progressive idea is what we want. Get something to come across under the high and we can get a front or back end frozen scenario. But if the whole mess stalls out and then cuts up we lose. Would be ironic if this week our problem was too progressive and next week the entire pattern stalls and a system sits to our west for days then bombs up the lakes. We do fail really well though. 

[Maestrobjwa]

50 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

A blind squirrel may eventually find a nut. Just like Joe Bastardi will occasionally be correct. I don't think it's interesting so much as random luck. 

If an QB throws 50 interceptions and then throws a 90 yard TD pass it doesn't mean the QB made a good pass necessarily. Maybe it was the receiver doing all the work  

Long range forecasting is a pretty muddy part of meteo/climatology. Farmers Almanac and Old Farmers Almanac are not skill based at all. 

My question is...when they DO get it right...how are they doing it? I mean they got our ice storm, the Dakota's Christmas storm...This storm (well, kind of)...And they got the beginning of this week (mild) correct. And yet they miss at least 50% of the time (as you would expect)....But again.. when they get it right...how? (Got to be some formula they use that manages to work out sometimes. And how on the specific date range are they getting it?)

[gymengineer]

The way I see it, this hasn't been a "no chance" winter for the I-95 corridor so far. After today, NYC and Boston should be at or a bit above their season-to-date average. Philly's going to be at or just a bit below. And Richmond's going to be above. 

We just haven't lucked out in the chances that have occurred. But if chances continue in different periods throughout the rest of the season, this may end up being a 'classic' median winter (~10" in the cities) for us while others northeast (and southeast) of us do better relative to average. It's just not showing to be a  skunk east coast winter at this point. 

Of course our bad luck could continue all the way to the end, but no way yet to predict that either way in the first week of January.

[HighStakes]

14 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

The way I see it, this hasn't been a "no chance" winter for the I-95 corridor so far. After today, NYC and Boston should be at or a bit above their season-to-date average. Philly's going to be at or just a bit below. And Richmond's going to be above. 

We just haven't lucked out in the chances that have occurred. But if chances continue in different periods throughout the rest of the season, this may end up being a 'classic' median winter (~10" in the cities) for us while others northeast (and southeast) of us do better relative to average. It's just not showing to be a  skunk east coast winter at this point. 

Of course our bad luck could continue all the way to the end, but no way yet to predict that either way in the first week of January.

Yes, I agree. It's still very early despite the bad look in the day 10-15. I'm confident there will be several other good opportunities. This doesn't have a torch winter feel like 2006, 2012 etc. When the cold has shown up its been legit.

[Kmlwx]

25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

My question is...when they DO get it right...how are they doing it? I mean they got our ice storm, the Dakota's Christmas storm...This storm (well, kind of)...And they got the beginning of this week (mild) correct. And yet they miss at least 50% of the time (as you would expect)....But again.. when they get it right...how? (Got to be some formula they use that manages to work out sometimes. And how on the specific date range are they getting it?)

Some of it is long term teleconnections and ENSO state, I'm sure. But mostly there is no skill involved. It's them being just vague enough and repeating the same forecasts for years on end that they eventually get it right. Don't read into it as much as you are. They suck more than 50% of the time (more like 95% of the time). I would expect their forecasts are pretty similar as going to a psychic would be. 

They are not pulling some sort of fancy formula. It's like a magician guessing whether your card is red or black. Getting it wrong 100% of the time would be as low probability as getting it right 100% of the time. Everyone will hit a forecast now and then. 

Back in like 2007 I was part of a 7 day temp battle with a local meteorologist...I won 4.5 days in that. Doesn't mean I'm a good forecaster

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

A blind squirrel may eventually find a nut. Just like Joe Bastardi will occasionally be correct. I don't think it's interesting so much as random luck. 

If an QB throws 50 interceptions and then throws a 90 yard TD pass it doesn't mean the QB made a good pass necessarily. Maybe it was the receiver doing all the work  

Long range forecasting is a pretty muddy part of meteo/climatology. Farmers Almanac and Old Farmers Almanac are not skill based at all. 

I honestly think JB is just playing people for fools using some keen marketing strategies.  When most snow lovers read the long range and it sounds awful they just tune out. It may be accurate but it won't sell or create buzz. 

Jb uses several little tricks over and over. I think he pulls out the same analogs to every somewhat similar storm type. But he uses the most extreme example. Example he uses feb 67 every time a pos tilt wave on an arctic front is coming. That was a 1/100 year type outcome from that type of system for the 95 corridor but every year he dusts that off and rolls it out. 

Another thing he does is make wildly vague calls so that it's hard to totally fail. Then focus on where he was right and ignore where he was wrong. Or he will lump a larger area into a snow forecast then he should. Like his 3-6 D.C. to NYC. It was always obvious NYC would advantage more from a late phase then here. But he put them all together. And now I'm sure he will talk about NYC and told you so and ignore his busy in D.C. and Baltimore. 

His perception in NYC is better then here and I think that's because he always forecasts more snow and since they get more he simply makes out better there. But for anyone that still follows him around here be warned he has a blind spot with D.C.  Im not sure if it's his old games (suspect it is) or a legit blind spot, but he tends to just lump D.C. In with the rest of 95 way too much. He fails here way more then NYC because he liberally includes D.C. in northeast storms even when it's obvious we're probably too far south or west and in trouble compared to philly north yet he will predict the same D.C. to NYC. He does it several times a year without fail. 

I don't think it's just his bias. He wasn't like this 20 years ago. I think he is manipulating his forecast to create buzz and sell his website. That's all. 

[Kmlwx]

psu - you are definitely right. 

Also - I haven't said this yet this year as I'm getting situated in a new job but thank you for your posts. I truly enjoy seeing you post and reading your thoughts. Between you, Bob and the other knowledgeable folks in our subforum it's like an wx enthusiasts dream. 

Hope you stick around! 

[BTRWx]

1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

Thank you all for your analysis of the upcoming patterns and model insight.  As a girl who just loves snow, looking forward to the next possibility of a coastal gets me through the winter.  I will remain optimistic for snow until at least the end of March because I know that we live in a crazy weather area!   I grew up in Southern MD where I frequently looked out my window to be disappointed, but also remember several big storms.  I've lived in FFX for the past 23 years, where I am still frequently disappointed (like Friday and today), but we have a good run for a few years.  I know there is always a chance of a sucky winter, (last year wasn't great, but we did get a HECS), but we do tend to have our biggest storms in February.  Isn't there always a 10 day storm to track?

 

Your realism is appreciated. Welcome to the forums!

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

psu - you are definitely right. 

Also - I haven't said this yet this year as I'm getting situated in a new job but thank you for your posts. I truly enjoy seeing you post and reading your thoughts. Between you, Bob and the other knowledgeable folks in our subforum it's like an wx enthusiasts dream. 

Hope you stick around! 

Thank you. Good luck with the new job. I don't plan to go anywhere I enjoy being part of the community here. Until bob redistricts me out anyways. 

[Bob Chill]

Wes and psu covered everything well so I don't have much to add. Next weekend is most likely the only chance at anything before entering an etremely hostile pattern for most of the US. The tues/wed time frame has low pressure progged way to far nw for a cad/waa event. And we'll have pretty much no idea if next weekend holds true promise or false for a while. 

The strong AK trough is unanimous on all guidance and means business it seems. I personally don't mind warmth during a hostile pattern. Forgetting about cold and snow and spending time doing fun things outside isn't a terrible thing.

I'm pretty confident we'll get some more chances down the line. Not sure they will come before Feb. Would be nice to start seeing the way out more clearly by next weekend though 

[BTRWx]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

My question is...when they DO get it right...how are they doing it? I mean they got our ice storm, the Dakota's Christmas storm...This storm (well, kind of)...And they got the beginning of this week (mild) correct. And yet they miss at least 50% of the time (as you would expect)....But again.. when they get it right...how? (Got to be some formula they use that manages to work out sometimes. And how on the specific date range are they getting it?)

Look up Gary Lezak if you want to see something bold. He has actually claimed to be attempting to submit a peer-reviewed report at an upcoming conference on seasonal forecasting specifics based on pattern recognition!

[RDM]

PSU - well said.  When JB was on TWC years ago he was not like that.  IMHO believe that was at least partially because he was part of a team of Pro Mets who kept him and each other in check.  Of course TWC was a very different entity back then as well and I can't stomach the nonsense TWC promotes these days either.  Once they changed their format 15 (or more?) years ago I lost interest very quickly.  JB was always hyped up though, be that because he was pumping iron (used to be a body builder) or was just fundamentally into the science.  Then when he foraged out on his own with his own website something changed.  It wasn't immediate, but did develop pretty quickly. 

I agree as you point out that the advertising and showmanship got in the way of sound and objective forecasting.  I'm not a subscriber to JB for a variety of reasons, many of which you capture in your note.  Beyond his hype bias, I'm fundamentally opposed to paying for what is available for free.  However, I do contribute to this site as a matter of principle to help out.  In that regard, I've learned a lot more from the contributors here and on the forum before it than I ever could elsewhere apart from perhaps pursing my own Met degree.  There's something to be said about doing something you want to do because you like doing it, vice doing something because you have to do it to make a living.  It's why I refuse to accept money from all the neighbors I plow when we do get sufficient snow to do so.  Money would take the fun out of it. 

Everyone on this forum is there for the same reason, albeit that may be due to the warped curse we all share of being addicted to weather and all that it brings with it...

[psuhoffman]

EPS has enough hits to say the signal day 7-10 is there.  18 manage some snow across the area. 7 are big hits. It's not high prob but those numbers are higher then chance for that range so it's weak but some support. 

After that we suffer for a while but I still see signs the ridge starts to lift towards day 15. We're probably still a week away at that point from ground truth being better. But hopefully within a week we see the way out coming. Preferable before our day 8 threat goes away. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

But February made me shiver, with every paper I'd deliver 

[BTRWx]

18 minutes ago, RDM said:

PSU - well said.  When JB was on TWC years ago he was not like that.  IMHO believe that was at least partially because he was part of a team of Pro Mets who kept him and each other in check.  Of course TWC was a very different entity back then as well and I can't stomach the nonsense TWC promotes these days either.  Once they changed their format 15 (or more?) years ago I lost interest very quickly.  JB was always hyped up though, be that because he was pumping iron (used to be a body builder) or was just fundamentally into the science.  Then when he foraged out on his own with his own website something changed.  It wasn't immediate, but did develop pretty quickly. 

I agree as you point out that the advertising and showmanship got in the way of sound and objective forecasting.  I'm not a subscriber to JB for a variety of reasons, many of which you capture in your note.  Beyond his hype bias, I'm fundamentally opposed to paying for what is available for free.  However, I do contribute to this site as a matter of principle to help out.  In that regard, I've learned a lot more from the contributors here and on the forum before it than I ever could elsewhere apart from perhaps pursing my own Met degree.  There's something to be said about doing something you want to do because you like doing it, vice doing something because you have to do it to make a living.  It's why I refuse to accept money from all the neighbors I plow when we do get sufficient snow to do so.  Money would take the fun out of it. 

Everyone on this forum is there for the same reason, albeit that may be due to the warped curse we all share of being addicted to weather and all that it brings with it...

Whoa what?! I'm inspired by that full description by the way.  

[RDM]

11 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

Whoa what?!

I'm talking a long long time ago as in the 80's.  While JB's main gig was Accuweather for decades, recall him being an occasional guest contributor on TWC back in the 80's (TWC started in 82).  My comments co-mingled the evolution of JB and TWC as the two evolved somewhat in parallel as cyber weather forecasting exploded in the 80's.  Reading the post over again mixing in TWC with JB and Accuweather was probably confusing.  It would have been better to forego reference to TWC and just use JB with Accuweather.  The latter is where JB made his name.  Regret any confusion...