psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 GEPS still has some nice high heights over Greenland day 12-16. Some improvements over the CONSUS too, not there yet but showing a response to the blocking more. Decent run, especially where I am watching most up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Looks like a lil something may be developing as the 12z EURO run ends at 234 and 240... down in the GOM by AL/MS/W FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like a lil something may be developing as the 12z EURO run ends at 234 and 240 Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Rain Well that sucks then... it looked interesting until the h5 charts came out for that time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Rain and how is this a pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 I was expecting to see some cold and dry runs after what we saw on the models the past couple of days. I agree with WinterWxLuvr the next storm will probably be some kind of surprise within 6 or 7 days on yhe models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Since the QBO has been a topic of a lot of discussion this year, pulling data the best analogs purely on QBO to this year, years where Dec-January averaged above 8 were 1976, 1981, 1983, 1986, 1991, 1993, 2011, and 2014. There is definitely a tendency for a positive AO in those winters. If we include weaker westerly QBO years the correlation gets muddier as we see years like 1958, 1960, 1962, and 1964 show up which all had periods with extreme blocking and huge snowfall totals. If you include those in the analogs it makes things look nice but I am not sure if they are valid since the QBO is off the charts this year and they were pretty weak westerly years. Snowfall is more divergent. Some of those were big years, 72 had a big feb KU storm, 86 a big feb overall, 93 nuf said, 2014!!! and some total duds 1981 and 1991. 1983 is probably useless due to the super nino. If we filter those years by enso the best matches become 1972, 1981, 1986, 2014. Again not much similarity to go on there, one great year, two ok, and one dud. Finally the absolute best match in terms of QBO (highest year other this this one) and Enso (very close match) is 2013/14. That in itself means the QBO alone is NOT going to prevent a good pattern, but obviously we need other things to line up. But this it cant snow because of the QBO stuff is silly given some of the years that had very positive QBO's and still had plenty of snow. Obvious this year the base state of all those factors just isnt doing it, the one thing we have not had so far is a shake up in the AO/NAO space so perhaps that is the wildcard that can shift things in our favor. But saying it cant snow because the QBO doesn't stand up to data analysis. I mentioned earlier in this thread that the QBO is in uncharted territory with it's sustained and powerful west-based state. It did not switch back in 2016 to an east-based QBO as it should have based on the 24-36 month cycle of change. There is some suggestion that this could be caused by the monster nino but it is unknown(there will be some good Doctoral dissertations from this). Interestingly, and perhaps explaining the poor winter we have had, this strong, west-based QBO may be wreaking havoc on the state of the MJO. MJO forecasting has been pretty awful this winter and the west-based QBO may be to blame, as east-based QBO's tend to favor stronger, longer-lasting MJO events. Like you said, there is more to this than the QBO but it is interesting to study. I'm hopeful that the west-based QBO slows and heads back towards neutral to shake up whatever is going on atmospherically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Well that sucks then... it looked interesting until the h5 charts came out for that time period It's not a bad run. Look up top! Roll that forward and it's a good pattern. Only problem there is the bad timing with the system crashing into the west pumping ridging ahead of it and flooding the conus with PAC air. Once that moves out we should see a trough develop again. And if it's wrong about that system in the PAC nw it may end up much colder in the 9-10 day. Either way I'm really locked in on ao/nao right now. Give me those changes. We're too far out for specific storm threats anyways and details. As long as I keep seeing the AO/nao tanking in the long range I'm happy. Euro starts the flip at 96 hours now. Again moving closer each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 Looks like on the 12z op run on the GFS that the storm off the coast next Monday may be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ji said: and how is this a pattern change Look at the nao day 10 on euro and stop worrying about details at 240 hours. Remove that system crashing into the west and that might end up much colder. Or we have to wait another few days to let the AO and nao do their dirty work but im happy with the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's not a bad run. Look up top! Roll that forward and it's a good pattern. Only problem there is the bad timing with the system crashing into the west pumping ridging ahead of it and flooding the conus with PAC air. Once that moves out we should see a trough develop again. And if it's wrong about that system in the PAC nw it may end up much colder in the 9-10 day. Either way I'm really locked in on ao/nao right now. Give me those changes. We're too far out for specific storm threats anyways and details. As long as I keep seeing the AO/nao tanking in the long range I'm happy. Euro starts the flip at 168 now. Again moving closer each run. I still believe what we're missing this year from other years when we scored is the trough over/near Japan. Still no sight of it on the Euro. I do note, however, that it does show up finally on the end of both the GEFS and GEPS 12Z runs. Hopefully, it will hold and something good happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Look at the nao day 10 on euro and stop worrying about details at 240 hours. Remove that system crashing into the west and that might end up much colder. Or we have to wait another few days to let the AO and nao do their dirty work but im happy with the run. Seems this run has come as a surprise to some here lol. Maybe they never looked at yesterday's 12z or 0z op runs. I agree with you, no reason to believe things wont continue to progress in a favorable direction, as long as the +heights up top don't suddenly "disappear". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 20 minutes ago, Ji said: and how is this a pattern change That's the one that'll definitely happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: it lost the signal for the snow in the day 5-10 period, but upped the signal in the day 10-15. ..and in 5 days it will be rinse and repeat You all need to find jobs before you go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: looks pretty squashed to me but we will see. Way more interested in seeing what the EPS has to say about the blocking later. The Jet streams are in the right configuration. Hopefully models will dig up 540 shortwave and a surface high later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 The old saying applies here: pattern first - that's looking sweet - storms next - give the ops a few days to resolve the shortwaves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Just now, kurtstack said: The old saying applies here: pattern first - that's looking sweet - storms next - give the ops a few days to resolve the shortwaves Yea I like the progression. The changes up where it matters most are starting really fast with today's runs. They actually backed off in the nao going that positive this week then tank it quick. Starts in only a few days. I'm becoming confident we will see a better pattern up there. But now a new wrench. They crash a system into the west and flood warm under the blocking. Lol. That's like Mother Nature giving us the middle finger right there. That said I'll be shocked if we get the kind of AO nao pattern shown today if we actually end up with more then just a transient warm up. The models are really flipping around right now. I think past a few days is really more foggy then usual right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I like the progression. The changes up where it matters most are starting really fast with today's runs. They actually backed off in the nao going that positive this week then tank it quick. Starts in only a few days. I'm becoming confident we will see a better pattern up there. But now a new wrench. They crash a system into the west and flood warm under the blocking. Lol. That's like Mother Nature giving us the middle finger right there. That said I'll be shocked if we get the kind of AO nao pattern shown today if we actually end up with more then just a transient warm up. The models are really flipping around right now. I think past a few days is really more foggy then usual right now. And what's over Japan? The d@mn ridge that's been there all season in the means. Hence, I think the chances of it happening are real. And until we can get a trough over Japan, I say to believe any ridge progged along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I like the progression. The changes up where it matters most are starting really fast with today's runs. They actually backed off in the nao going that positive this week then tank it quick. Starts in only a few days. I'm becoming confident we will see a better pattern up there. But now a new wrench. They crash a system into the west and flood warm under the blocking. Lol. That's like Mother Nature giving us the middle finger right there. That said I'll be shocked if we get the kind of AO nao pattern shown today if we actually end up with more then just a transient warm up. The models are really flipping around right now. I think past a few days is really more foggy then usual right now. yeah and 12z gefs show 10/21 members with good snow in dc in the day 9-16 period so things are looking pretty decent at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And what's over Japan? The d@mn ridge that's been there all season in the means. Hence, I think the chances of it happening are real. And until we can get a trough over Japan, I say to believe any ridge progged along the east coast. We can get a trough without one over Japan. It depends on the longwave pattern and wavelengths. Your not wrong in your observation though it's been consistent this year and so has the trough ridge position downstream. However this particular setup looks transient. Both the gefs and EPS progress things east. The EPS still hangs the trough axis a bit west of us but not by much and with the cold it's showing later in the run that could work with a storm running the boundary. As we head into feb the correlation between the nao and cold increases. It will be hard to get a sustained ridge if we can get some healthy blocking to lock in up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 31 minutes ago, mitchnick said: And what's over Japan? The d@mn ridge that's been there all season in the means. Hence, I think the chances of it happening are real. And until we can get a trough over Japan, I say to believe any ridge progged along the east coast. Check out the 18z GEFS at the end of the run. A bit of a trough there. I doubt the general pattern is such that we will ever get something favorable to really lock in for us. We just have to accept that. There likely will not be a prolonged negative AO/NAO. Ridging near AK is overall a mainstay, but its often displaced too far west. Overall it appears the upcoming pattern will be decent enough to present some windows for opportunities. Our region has not been the target for the coldest air, and that probably will continue. Transient, modified cold may not present a high probability of success here, but we really don't need a true Arctic airmass this time of year, just some good timing and with a bit of help in the NA. We should have some threats to track in the coming weeks at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Check out the 18z GEFS at the end of the run. A bit of a trough there. I doubt the general pattern is such that we will ever get something favorable to really lock in for us. We just have to accept that. There likely will not be a prolonged negative AO/NAO. Ridging near AK is overall a mainstay, but its often displaced too far west. Overall it appears the upcoming pattern will be decent enough to present some windows for opportunities. Our region has not been the target for the coldest air, and that probably will continue. Transient, modified cold may not present a high probability of success here, but we really don't need a true Arctic airmass this time of year, just some good timing and with a bit of help in the NA. We should have some threats to track in the coming weeks at least. Yeah, I posted earlier that both the GEFS and GEFS looked good with a trough over Japan in their 12z runs. Hopefully they hold....strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 13 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Another good night of ens runs with no steps back with the NH LW pattern. Both the gefs and eps are showing a pretty look for a shot or two at something decent in our area beyond the clipper possibility. Euro has the clipper now. But those little NS features are tricky so we'll see how it goes over the next 5 days. Should be a lot of op fantasy stuff showing up this week to keep us entertained. Lol How's it looking now 9 hours ago, eurojosh said: Lost it. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Yea I like the progression. The changes up where it matters most are starting really fast with today's runs. They actually backed off in the nao going that positive this week then tank it quick. Starts in only a few days. I'm becoming confident we will see a better pattern up there. But now a new wrench. They crash a system into the west and flood warm under the blocking. Lol. That's like Mother Nature giving us the middle finger right there. That said I'll be shocked if we get the kind of AO nao pattern shown today if we actually end up with more then just a transient warm up. The models are really flipping around right now. I think past a few days is really more foggy then usual right now. I think seasonal progression is the way to proceed with the ensembles. We've seen this look through the late fall and winter and it obviously hasn't produced for us. The pattern is repetitively transitive with blocking not sustaining itself for any continuous period of time. Probably the result of the strong west-based QBO causing the MJO to stay in the circle of death all winter. Also, the EPS ensemble mean has been way off on its -NAO forecasts this winter especially towards days 11-15. Below is the NAO bias of the EPS for December. The GEFS is even worse. So the promise of any modeled -NAO should be taken dubiously going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: And what's over Japan? The d@mn ridge that's been there all season in the means. Hence, I think the chances of it happening are real. And until we can get a trough over Japan, I say to believe any ridge progged along the east coast. Look at the height lines Mitch. That ain't much of a ridge. Pretty much zonal over the land of the rising sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2017 Author Share Posted January 25, 2017 3 hours ago, kurtstack said: yeah and 12z gefs show 10/21 members with good snow in dc in the day 9-16 period so things are looking pretty decent at this range. Day 9-16 is pretty much fantasy as far as on the surface weather IMO, even on ensembles. Maybe decent for pattern progs but even that is sketchy sometimes. I'll be happy when I see some members with storm looks inside about 7-8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 38 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: I think seasonal progression is the way to proceed with the ensembles. We've seen this look through the late fall and winter and it obviously hasn't produced for us. The pattern is repetitively transitive with blocking not sustaining itself for any continuous period of time. Probably the result of the strong west-based QBO causing the MJO to stay in the circle of death all winter. Also, the EPS ensemble mean has been way off on its -NAO forecasts this winter especially towards days 11-15. Below is the NAO bias of the EPS for December. The GEFS is even worse. So the promise of any modeled -NAO should be taken dubiously going forward. Would agree on skepticism but the changes in the AO and nao start a lot sooner now then in previous false attempts to flip. It could still be fools gold. The bigger issue might be weather the flip has any staying power and if other factors line up to mute it's impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 Does any one know if the euro showed snow here at 144... the free map looked real close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 40 minutes ago, PDIII said: Does any one know if the euro showed snow here at 144... the free map looked real close It has a general dusting, but 1-2" around the tidewater of VA and Lower eastern shore. Its a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 25, 2017 Share Posted January 25, 2017 D12 storm back on 6z gfs. A medium effect, but textbook miller b. Will take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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