Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,607
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
5 minutes ago, Ji said:

i am actually hopeful for February. I think we can squeeze 1 or 2 events. of course the CWG winter forecast has us very warm in February lol so maybe thats a good sign. We are due PD3 anyway....even though we say it every year....its been 14 years now!

weeklies had their best look around PD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Good call, except it only took 1 run instead of 9 days!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

Because 9 day out GFS runs are accurate with end results. Always. I'd put money on it in Vegas. Lol.

Wait. What's the rule again? It's right showing rain, wrong showing snow? smh. Cry emoji. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Because 9 day out GFS runs are accurate with end results. Always. I'd put money on it in Vegas. Lol.

Wait. What's the rule again? It's right showing rain, wrong showing snow? smh. Cry emoji. 

Any time this season that a GLL or cutter has shown... well the solution usually does not change.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS is getting some STj involved with the clipper, that ups the potential but also the risk the whole system stays suppressed IMO.  After that the GFS run was bad because it fails to flip the AO/NAO negative and the results are predictable.  It reverts to the eastern ridge look once the MJO induced PNA ridge fades.  The GEFS still develops the ridging up top but its slightly more muted this run the last, but on the positive side its moving closer in time even more each run.  It starts to develop around day 6/7 already now.  Looking into the GEFS a bit more there is a divergent camp that like the 6z and 12z op runs do not flip the NAO negative.  Those camps also end up warm and rainy in the long range.  That small cluster is keeping the means muted, they also lend the possibility that they are right and the AO and NAO fail to flip and we revert to the status quo, but the optimist would say they are the minority and the flip will happen and all they are doing is making the signal look less impressive in the means.  Interpret it however you want based on your mood.  

I will say the members that develop better blocking are VERY snowy in the long range.  Overall the mean jumped up pretty good this run.  About 3.5" in DC and around 6" up here and that is with a handful of the divergent cluster showing basically nothing.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GFS is getting some STj involved with the clipper, that ups the potential but also the risk the whole system stays suppressed IMO.  After that the GFS run was bad because it fails to flip the AO/NAO negative and the results are predictable.  It reverts to the eastern ridge look once the MJO induced PNA ridge fades.  The GEFS still develops the ridging up top but its slightly more muted this run the last, but on the positive side its moving closer in time even more each run.  It starts to develop around day 6/7 already now.  Looking into the GEFS a bit more there is a divergent camp that like the 6z and 12z op runs do not flip the NAO negative.  Those camps also end up warm and rainy in the long range.  That small cluster is keeping the means muted, they also lend the possibility that they are right and the AO and NAO fail to flip and we revert to the status quo, but the optimist would say they are the minority and the flip will happen and all they are doing is making the signal look less impressive in the means.  Interpret it however you want based on your mood.  

I will say the members that develop better blocking are VERY snowy in the long range.  Overall the mean jumped up pretty good this run.  About 3.5" in DC and around 6" up here and that is with a handful of the divergent cluster showing basically nothing.  

I will choose to ride your last paragraph only. ;-) Seriously, in such a craptastic winter, you have done an amazing job trying to find our way out of the dark. I really hope we can pull a PSUHoffman Storm in the next few weeks. You deserve it man. You deserve it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

GFS is getting some STj involved with the clipper, that ups the potential but also the risk the whole system stays suppressed IMO.  After that the GFS run was bad because it fails to flip the AO/NAO negative and the results are predictable.  It reverts to the eastern ridge look once the MJO induced PNA ridge fades.  The GEFS still develops the ridging up top but its slightly more muted this run the last, but on the positive side its moving closer in time even more each run.  It starts to develop around day 6/7 already now.  Looking into the GEFS a bit more there is a divergent camp that like the 6z and 12z op runs do not flip the NAO negative.  Those camps also end up warm and rainy in the long range.  That small cluster is keeping the means muted, they also lend the possibility that they are right and the AO and NAO fail to flip and we revert to the status quo, but the optimist would say they are the minority and the flip will happen and all they are doing is making the signal look less impressive in the means.  Interpret it however you want based on your mood.  

I will say the members that develop better blocking are VERY snowy in the long range.  Overall the mean jumped up pretty good this run.  About 3.5" in DC and around 6" up here and that is with a handful of the divergent cluster showing basically nothing.  

I have quit looking beyond day 10 for anything.  Just for fun, I did look at the snow mean for day 10 on the latest gefs and compared it to yesterdays day 11.  It isn't a good trend.

I think our first real snow, if it happens, will be something that pops up no farther out than 6 days during or near the end of a good pattern.  I don't think we are going to get a long lead storm to chase.  The models for whatever reason are showing us what we want to see at long range and have done that repeatedly, during decent patterns, this year only to lose whatever we were interested in very quickly after showing it to us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since the QBO has been a topic of a lot of discussion this year, pulling data the best analogs purely on QBO to this year, years where Dec-January averaged above 8 were 1976, 1981, 1983, 1986, 1991, 1993, 2011, and 2014.  There is definitely a tendency for a positive AO in those winters.  If we include weaker westerly QBO years the correlation gets muddier as we see years like 1958, 1960, 1962, and 1964 show up which all had periods with extreme blocking and huge snowfall totals.  If you include those in the analogs it makes things look nice but I am not sure if they are valid since the QBO is off the charts this year and they were pretty weak westerly years.  

Snowfall is more divergent.  Some of those were big years, 72 had a big feb KU storm, 86 a big feb overall, 93 nuf said, 2014!!! and some total duds 1981 and 1991.  1983 is probably useless due to the super nino.  

If we filter those years by enso the best matches become 1972, 1981, 1986, 2014.  Again not much similarity to go on there, one great year, two ok, and one dud.  

Finally the absolute best match in terms of QBO (highest year other this this one) and Enso (very close match) is 2013/14.  That in itself means the QBO alone is NOT going to prevent a good pattern, but obviously we need other things to line up.  But this it cant snow because of the QBO stuff is silly given some of the years that had very positive QBO's and still had plenty of snow.  

Obvious this year the base state of all those factors just isnt doing it, the one thing we have not had so far is a shake up in the AO/NAO space so perhaps that is the wildcard that can shift things in our favor.  But saying it cant snow because the QBO doesn't stand up to data analysis.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I have quit looking beyond day 10 for anything.  Just for fun, I did look at the snow mean for day 10 on the latest gefs and compared it to yesterdays day 11.  It isn't a good trend.

I think our first real snow, if it happens, will be something that pops up no farther out than 6 days during or near the end of a good pattern.  I don't think we are going to get a long lead storm to chase.  The models for whatever reason are showing us what we want to see at long range and have done that repeatedly, during decent patterns, this year only to lose whatever we were interested in very quickly after showing it to us.

it lost the signal for the snow in the day 5-10 period, but upped the signal in the day 10-15.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...