January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, mdsnowlover said:

DT is not optimistic about snow past next weekend, rather forsees ice as possibility for february, westerly high QBO our main problem.

Wasn't the QBO positive when NC, eastern VA, and coastal MA had a snowstorm a couple weeks back?

[mdsnowlover]

4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Wasn't the QBO positive when NC, eastern VA, and coastal MA had a snowstorm a couple weeks back?

he said the figure was 17, very high, i dont know, he trashed his jan forecast

[mappy]

LR looking good! lets bring it home folks. need some snow. 

[mdsnowlover]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

LR looking good! lets bring it home folks. need some snow. 

just some facts on your post dt said as long as qbo remains high trough will not sustain in east, in addition models now saying mjo , now in 1 will go back into cod, wont proceed to 2, so overall not looking good for lr.

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

LR looking good! lets bring it home folks. need some snow. 

Another good night of ens runs with no steps back with the NH LW pattern. Both the gefs and eps are showing a pretty look for a shot or two at something decent in our area beyond the clipper possibility. 

Euro has the clipper now. But those little NS features are tricky so we'll see how it goes over the next 5 days. 

Should be a lot of op fantasy stuff showing up this week to keep us entertained. Lol

 

[Deck Pic]

6z GFS gives me like 15-20" on 2/6-7.  That would be cool.  

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

So are people more interested in the potential clipper next Monday/Tuesday or the LR storm showing up on the 7th? 

The clipper would have the better chance of verifying as of right now than something out that far.  to get that sort of storm you need the pattern to set up as modeled. Its still unknown if it will do that just yet.  

[mdsnowlover]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

6z GFS gives me like 15-20" on 2/6-7.  That would be cool.  

hmm maybe anthony maisello is right, a storm similar to what we just had only much colder, interesting

[mattie g]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Another good night of ens runs with no steps back with the NH LW pattern. Both the gefs and eps are showing a pretty look for a shot or two at something decent in our area beyond the clipper possibility. 

Euro has the clipper now. But those little NS features are tricky so we'll see how it goes over the next 5 days. 

Should be a lot of op fantasy stuff showing up this week to keep us entertained. Lol

 

What does DT say about it?

[WinterWxLuvr]

How we lookin? 

 

 

Seriously, for me, if it's clipper talk, we need it to dig on the models this far out because, knock on wood, those things almost always end up with the sw further north than modeled.  I haven't even looked, but it sounds pretty good from what the crew is saying.

[Bob Chill]

24 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

So are people more interested in the potential clipper next Monday/Tuesday or the LR storm showing up on the 7th? 

Clipper for sure. It's the only thing within skill range and just barely at that. I'm (we) are interested in the general long wave pattern beyond the clipper. It's one of the better ones if not the best one we've seen all season. But many of the good looks we've had have vaporized once inside of d8 or so. Can't do much right now except pass time and hope it's real. 

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, mattie g said:

What does DT say about it?

He likes it now because the euro showed it for the first time last night. If the euro drops it then he'll cancel it until it comes back on the euro and if the euro brings it back DT will bring it back because the euro brought it back. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mdsnowlover said:

just some facts on your post dt said as long as qbo remains high trough will not sustain in east, in addition models now saying mjo , now in 1 will go back into cod, wont proceed to 2, so overall not looking good for lr.

So now DT is your end all be all source of fact and truth in weather?  Seems you jump around from source to source, its hard to keep up.  But anyways, you seem to be holding up one piece of a very large puzzle and thinking you have the whole thing.  

First, DT's statement about the QBO and ice vs snow seems more him spouting off in frustration (as is his typical MO) rather then a reasonable analysis of the pattern.  Yes the record west QBO has absolutely killed us all winter.  But the REASON behind a west QBO being problematic for us is how it correlates with a positive AO/NAO.  Right now, the expected better look is due completely to the expected phase change of the AO.  The QBO is very important, and even if the AO goes negative in a week and stays that way into March we would still average positive for the winter and the QBO is probably a big reason why.  But the QBO is not the ONLY pattern driver.  Its correlation with blocking weakens later in winter.  

Now maybe DT is saying because of the QBO being in uncharted territory he does not believe in the projected phase change to negative of the AO.  That would be a valid argument. However, what then makes no sense is his assertion that ice is preferred over snow.  The only reason the pattern looks better after day 10 is because of the -AO developing.  As you stated we currently have a favorable MJO and that is driving the cold period we are heading into.  That will fade by day 10 and once it does without the NAO/AO to hand off to we would revert to a warmer, trough west ridge east pattern as the models were showing for a couple days before they picked up on the AO changes.   If the AO flip is real our chances of getting snow is probably not effected much by the QBO alone since its impact is through its usual affect on the AO.  But if the QBO somehow prevents the flip of the AO then were probably toast and even ice is not likely, we haven't had much of it so far have we?  Could the qbo prevent the AO flip, yea, and im cautious because of it, but at the same time the AO has been in a positive phase for over 2 months and has reached the outside limits of how long these phases can usually sustain.  Later in winter the shortening wavelengths can help other factors override the westerly QBO's influence.  Those reasons argue that perhaps we finally get some help from the AO.  Perhaps its muted somewhat by the QBO.  Too soon to know, were in uncharted territory with this QBO.  

Either way your statement is troubling because is first implies DT somehow has a magic handle on how this is going when he has already busted several times on expected pattern changes this year.  Frankly he seems frustrated and is probably just as likely throwing a temper tantrum and simply saying "winters over" because he has given up since so many of his "its getting colder" calls busted.  Have to roll with the punches in this business.  And second you seem to simplify everything down to one thing.  Earlier it was the MJO and some magical January 17th date.  At times it was JB or DT says this or that.  Now its the QBO.   Its usually way more complex then that.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Another good night of ens runs with no steps back with the NH LW pattern. Both the gefs and eps are showing a pretty look for a shot or two at something decent in our area beyond the clipper possibility. 

Euro has the clipper now. But those little NS features are tricky so we'll see how it goes over the next 5 days. 

Should be a lot of op fantasy stuff showing up this week to keep us entertained. Lol

 

yea, the EPS continued in the camp of showing the Phase change up top and the resultant better look late, and all the guidance continues to progress these changes closer in time.  The AO starts to rise dramatically in the day 6 period now and the NAO by day 9.  We are actually starting to get it into the range where we might have to take it seriously.  Another day or so and I will feel much more confident that this is finally a real flip and not fools gold.  As I said before its encouraging too that this change is initiated from heights rising over the top, not from a ridge lifting poleward.  We had a coupld -NAO periods that were initiated that way but first that does no good because the blocking was simply blocking in the left over warm air from the ridge lifting and it was not indicative of a true phase change up top but only a transient change as ridging shifted across the NAO domain.  This looks more like an entire phase flip of the AO and NAO as well.  

As for individual threats, the clipper is a real possibility but nailing down that track is several days away.  Those things are finicky.  It is more of a mauler then a clipper, amplifying around the base of a pretty good trough so it has more potential then a typical clipper.  I wouldn't be shocked to see models juice it up some as we get closer.  Its rare they pick up on these northern stream vorts that well at range.  

After that I am actually a little less enthusiastic about the day 10-13 threat.  The problem is its coming during our transient warm up between the MJO induced trough and the reload once the -AO/NAO start to exert influence.  The GEFS yesterday was pretty suppressed with the ridging during that time, but the EPS and GEFS have converged with the EPS trending better in the long range with the AO/NAO and a better pattern day 15 but the GEFS trending towards more ridging in between troughs in the day 10-13 range.  THe result is more support that the storm in that time range could cut west.  I am not saying its off the table but right now my money would be on a track to our west with that system.  The GEFS backed off somewhat at 6z and the EPS has very little support for a track under us with that.  The pattern is in flux though so guidance is very unreliable right now at range so perhaps that trends back the other way.

After that the look later is very good.  Love the look up top and seeing a bit of ridging to our south to me in February with a -AO/NAO is money.  It can be pretty dry around here in really cold patterns, give me blocking to suppress the storm track but enough ridging in the south to force some systems up to our latitude and we can get a train of storms.  Yea they might not all be snow but given enough opportunities in that look we would score something.  

[Ji]

how is this a helpful tool?

 

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

He likes it now because the euro showed it for the first time last night. If the euro drops it then he'll cancel it until it comes back on the euro and if the euro brings it back DT will bring it back because the euro brought it back. 

 

Sometimes I laugh so hard at your posts Bob! This was one such case! LOL! 

[mdsnowlover]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So now DT is your end all be all source of fact and truth in weather?  Seems you jump around from source to source, its hard to keep up.  But anyways, you seem to be holding up one piece of a very large puzzle and thinking you have the whole thing.  

First, DT's statement about the QBO and ice vs snow seems more him spouting off in frustration (as is his typical MO) rather then a reasonable analysis of the pattern.  Yes the record west QBO has absolutely killed us all winter.  But the REASON behind a west QBO being problematic for us is how it correlates with a positive AO/NAO.  Right now, the expected better look is due completely to the expected phase change of the AO.  The QBO is very important, and even if the AO goes negative in a week and stays that way into March we would still average positive for the winter and the QBO is probably a big reason why.  But the QBO is not the ONLY pattern driver.  Its correlation with blocking weakens later in winter.  

Now maybe DT is saying because of the QBO being in uncharted territory he does not believe in the projected phase change to negative of the AO.  That would be a valid argument. However, what then makes no sense is his assertion that ice is preferred over snow.  The only reason the pattern looks better after day 10 is because of the -AO developing.  As you stated we currently have a favorable MJO and that is driving the cold period we are heading into.  That will fade by day 10 and once it does without the NAO/AO to hand off to we would revert to a warmer, trough west ridge east pattern as the models were showing for a couple days before they picked up on the AO changes.   If the AO flip is real our chances of getting snow is probably not effected much by the QBO alone since its impact is through its usual affect on the AO.  But if the QBO somehow prevents the flip of the AO then were probably toast and even ice is not likely, we haven't had much of it so far have we?  Could the qbo prevent the AO flip, yea, and im cautious because of it, but at the same time the AO has been in a positive phase for over 2 months and has reached the outside limits of how long these phases can usually sustain.  Later in winter the shortening wavelengths can help other factors override the westerly QBO's influence.  Those reasons argue that perhaps we finally get some help from the AO.  Perhaps its muted somewhat by the QBO.  Too soon to know, were in uncharted territory with this QBO.  

Either way your statement is troubling because is first implies DT somehow has a magic handle on how this is going when he has already busted several times on expected pattern changes this year.  Frankly he seems frustrated and is probably just as likely throwing a temper tantrum and simply saying "winters over" because he has given up since so many of his "its getting colder" calls busted.  Have to roll with the punches in this business.  And second you seem to simplify everything down to one thing.  Earlier it was the MJO and some magical January 17th date.  At times it was JB or DT says this or that.  Now its the QBO.   Its usually way more complex then that.

no I just quoted what he said, why dont you just ignore my posts as you have nothing constructive to say to me. You got an attitude prob dude!! If you notice , i never ever respond to you

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

how is this a helpful tool?

 

It keeps Mitch occupied. 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

no I just quoted what he said, why dont you just ignore my posts as you have nothing constructive to say to me. You got an attitude prob dude!! If you notice , i never ever respond to you

No you are far too busy educating everyone else with your "FACTS" 

[mdsnowlover]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No you are far too busy educating everyone else with your "FACTS" 

no i leave that to you, i just quoted what DT said, I dont pretend to know meteorology

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No you are far too busy educating everyone else with your "FACTS" 

 

[Ji]

the capital weather gang forecast for this winter is absolutely dreadful. They had a cold and somewhat snowy January. IAD is 6 above normal so far this January. honestly at this point, they shouldnt spend time on winter forecascts anymore. Just call for warm and little snow and they will be right 8 out of 10 years

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

the capital weather gang forecast for this winter is absolutely dreadful. They had a cold and somewhat snowy January. IAD is 6 above normal so far this January. honestly at this point, they shouldnt spend time on winter forecascts anymore. Just call for warm and little snow and they will be right 8 out of 10 years

There is the Ji we know and love.  Pretty negative tone all of a sudden given we have the best looking long range pattern all winter showing itself.  Granted its long range, but this is the LONG RANGE thread so not sure what else we would be talking about in here.  

[yoda]

2 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

6z GFS gives me like 15-20" on 2/6-7.  That would be cool.  

I hope that it keeps showing up in the LR... we all would like that snowstorm

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There is the Ji we know and love.  Pretty negative tone all of a sudden given we have the best looking long range pattern all winter showing itself.  Granted its long range, but this is the LONG RANGE thread so not sure what else we would be talking about in here.  

i am actually hopeful for February. I think we can squeeze 1 or 2 events. of course the CWG winter forecast has us very warm in February lol so maybe thats a good sign. We are due PD3 anyway....even though we say it every year....its been 14 years now!

[psuhoffman]

All 4 of these are acceptable. Just trying to brighten the mood. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I hope that it keeps showing up in the LR... we all would like that snowstorm

yep..because 15 day storms keep showing up every run till it verifies over Bob Chills yard

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

All 4 of these are acceptable. Just trying to brighten the mood. 

everytime JB shows those maps on twitter...the exact opposite happens

[Bob Chill]

40 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Sometimes I laugh so hard at your posts Bob! This was one such case! LOL! 

It's probably a good sign that my sense of humor is back. If the 12z gfs still has the d14 threat then I'm gonna start a thread. 

[yoda]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's probably a good sign that my sense of humor is back. If the 12z gefs still has the d14 threat then I'm gonna start a thread. 

Randy will uber ban you then

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It's probably a good sign that my sense of humor is back. If the 12z gefs still has the d14 threat then I'm gonna start a thread. 

my favorite is when the D14 threat keeps showing up....at D14.... for about 4 straight days.