January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I thought it looked good enough too. Hopefully it's not another rain/cold/cold leaves/rain progression. Heck, I'd kill for a clipper that drops 1-2 at this point. I keep hoping something like that pops up once the trough returns later this week but not even a hint of a fantasy dusting on any op run. 

This year has been no fun at all. 

Yea I'm pretty frustrated with this year. I had pretty low expectations but this is awful. Still perhaps the late season typical pattern shifts will reshuffle things in our favor.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6z GFS throws us a bone with a light event around 180.

[Ji]

26 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

6z GFS throws us a bone with a light event around 180.

first time gfs has shown snow for us in like 3 weeks

[BristowWx]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

first time gfs has shown snow for us in like 3 weeks

this is the thing DT said to keep an eye on I think.  not even worth speculating about it.  but it beats tracking nothing...barely

[RitualOfTheTrout]

12 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS improved. Starts to progress the trough east day 15 with ridging developing in AO space. I'm sure someone will come along to say it won't happen but it looks about to set up a half decent pattern after a transient 2-3 day warm up. 

I know I'm out of my region here, but really enjoy following you and Bob's pattern thoughts \ discussions. The only thing that gives me hope that we could see some help from the NAO \ AO is the potential PV displacement, that at least gives those domains a chance, even if only temporarily to alter from the seasonal base state. I read that NAO \ AO phases usually last at most about 60 days so that would also argue for at least a temporary dip into negative territory by mid Feb.

[winterymix]

GFS at the end of its range looks nice...

 

 

[kurtstack]

00z gfs ensemble members have 6 big hits and a few close calls or light events in the 9-16 day range.  Best its looked in a long long time.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, kurtstack said:

00z gfs ensemble members have 6 big hits and a few close calls or light events in the 9-16 day range.  Best its looked in a long long time.

Yeah some weak signals started emerging on the ens members a couple runs ago for something beginning early Feb. Its looking even better now which is a good sign. The ridging along the east coast that was showing up late in recent ens runs is now non existent in the 0z and 6z ens runs. The building heights over the top later in the run with the HB vortex underneath should keep more of a trough over the east. More good signs. Looks like we will have to endure a frustratingly dry period once the cold gets in before the pattern becomes more favorable for a storm, but that was expected.

eta- 0z eps has modest +heights along the southeast coast at day 15 with mean trough out west, but also has heights building up north. Hopefully we can get a period with -AO/NAO in early to mid Feb.

[PaEasternWX]

Well when we do score, it is usually at the tail end of a good pattern.

[WinterWxLuvr]

46 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah some weak signals started emerging on the ens members a couple runs ago for something beginning early Feb. Its looking even better now which is a good sign. The ridging along the east coast that was showing up late in recent ens runs is now non existent in the 0z and 6z ens runs. The building heights over the top later in the run with the HB vortex underneath should keep more of a trough over the east. More good signs. Looks like we will have to endure a frustratingly dry period once the cold gets in before the pattern becomes more favorable for a storm, but that was expected.

eta- 0z eps has modest +heights along the southeast coast at day 15 with mean trough out west, but also has heights building up north. Hopefully we can get a period with -AO/NAO in early to mid Feb.

This counts.  

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I know I'm out of my region here, but really enjoy following you and Bob's pattern thoughts \ discussions. The only thing that gives me hope that we could see some help from the NAO \ AO is the potential PV displacement, that at least gives those domains a chance, even if only temporarily to alter from the seasonal base state. I read that NAO \ AO phases usually last at most about 60 days so that would also argue for at least a temporary dip into negative territory by mid Feb.

Thank you.  I nomad around the forums from time to time to see what good discussions are going on as well.  Regarding the pattern that is my hope also.  There are some decent arguments we can expect a somewhat better pattern in Feb then we have had Dec/Jan.  Now if we score some snow is another story.  

[CAPE]

PDG look right here. Lets see if it holds, and actually materializes for once. EPS isnt quite there but it looks like its moving in the same general direction with building +heights up north. New weeklies will be interesting.

 

[psuhoffman]

Very encouraging progress in the long range guidance the last 24 hours.  Signs of ridging over the top showing up on all the guidance out at range.  Any before we start the discussion of if it will verify, hallelujah to the GEFS day 16 look (below).  But the general idea is there on GEPS and EPS also.  They are taking longer to get to the end result though.  But even the EPS is shifting the trough east towards the end which is logical with the heights building over the top of the PV in Canada allowing the cold to push south.  

The AO/NAO ridging is the key though.  We may get heights to build in the west again but probably only in response to the upstream roadblock created by the suppressed PV under the blocking.  The Pacific base state just isnt going to get it done this year without help.  Now the issue of weather the idea of a better AO or NAO is believable is legit.  I am NOT saying to buy into this right now.  But there are some reasonable arguments why this might be real this time.  First the seasonal progression, we have seen the correlation between the west QBO and a more favorable Feb.  THe wavelengths shorten which can create a different reaction to the same pattern drivers.  But also in how this blocking develops.  All of our previous forays into a -NAO or even attempts at one came from the CONUS ridging simply lifting poleward and extending into the NAO space.  While technically a -NAO that doesn't really have the same impact. THis is the first time I have seen the guidance consistently building ridging from over the top (the more classic helpful way) and then suppressing the pattern under it.  This is a new development a little different from the way the guidance has been pulling a Lucy on us all winter.  

That said there are also arguments that they have been overdoing higher heights in the AO/NAO domain all winter and thats very true so take this look with some skepticism.  It has been trending in a better direction for a couple days now though and if we can get this look to move into the day 10 range or closer then I think its time to really think we might finally see something different, and right now different is good.  

[frd]

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

PDG look right here. Lets see if it holds, and actually materializes for once. EPS isnt quite there but it looks like its moving in the same general direction with building +heights up north. New weeklies will be interesting.

 

Background state might improve mid Feb to early March 

[frd]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Very encouraging progress in the long range guidance the last 24 hours.  Signs of ridging over the top showing up on all the guidance out at range.  Any before we start the discussion of if it will verify, hallelujah to the GEFS day 16 look (below).  But the general idea is there on GEPS and EPS also.  They are taking longer to get to the end result though.  But even the EPS is shifting the trough east towards the end which is logical with the heights building over the top of the PV in Canada allowing the cold to push south.  

The AO/NAO ridging is the key though.  We may get heights to build in the west again but probably only in response to the upstream roadblock created by the suppressed PV under the blocking.  The Pacific base state just isnt going to get it done this year without help.  Now the issue of weather the idea of a better AO or NAO is believable is legit.  I am NOT saying to buy into this right now.  But there are some reasonable arguments why this might be real this time.  First the seasonal progression, we have seen the correlation between the west QBO and a more favorable Feb.  THe wavelengths shorten which can create a different reaction to the same pattern drivers.  But also in how this blocking develops.  All of our previous forays into a -NAO or even attempts at one came from the CONUS ridging simply lifting poleward and extending into the NAO space.  While technically a -NAO that doesn't really have the same impact. THis is the first time I have seen the guidance consistently building ridging from over the top (the more classic helpful way) and then suppressing the pattern under it.  This is a new development a little different from the way the guidance has been pulling a Lucy on us all winter.  

That said there are also arguments that they have been overdoing higher heights in the AO/NAO domain all winter and thats very true so take this look with some skepticism.  It has been trending in a better direction for a couple days now though and if we can get this look to move into the day 10 range or closer then I think its time to really think we might finally see something different, and right now different is good.  

I like seeing the continued negative SOI. May be more important than most think. 

 

[Bob Chill]

I went back and looked at the GEFS verification for the NAO. There have been times where verification is below d14 guidance (unlike the AO). It's actually pretty decent @d10 and really good @ d7. The AO (for whatever reason) has been absolutely terrible @ d14. Verification is door to door well above d14 mean progs with a single blip around the 1st of the year. D10 is choppy but a little better. 

It's nice to see some consensus building right now. It makes sense. We're approaching a full 60 days of a strong + AO state. I can't find my +AO data spread but it followed the same general patterns of the -AO data where the typical run of an anomalous state is 45-60 days before some sort of breakdown. The breakdowns range from a very brief flip to an all out regime change. 

If it holds together this week and we get inside of 10 days then confidence should jump substantially. I'll reserve any and all enthusiasm until inside of d10 though. lol

 

[mitchnick]

GFS has the clipper at 172 hrs and it look great (for this winter, at least!)

 

ps: surface temps not great, but wtf

[Jason WX]

I'd watch the 30-31st time frame.

[clskinsfan]

You have to like the look in the long range on this GFS run. Some decent sustained cold heading into Feb. Could be a dry period or two thrown in there.  But at least the cold should be available should something pop up.

[psuhoffman]

I like the look overall...definitely different then what we have dealt with all winter.  

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I like the look overall...definitely different then what we have dealt with all winter.  

I like the trend of the shortwave @ d7. GFS and CMC are sharpening it up enough to pop a weak low/clipper type event. Small features like that don't resolve until d3-4ish. Hopefully we are tracking a small event before Friday. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I like the look overall...definitely different then what we have dealt with all winter.  

Finally seeing some hints of storms on the op during the "good look" period.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Finally seeing some hints of storms on the op during the "good look" period.

Op looks a lot like the ens mean too

 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Op looks a lot like the ens mean too

 

Sure does. Even has a low sitting just NE of Labrador under the GL ridge lol.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Op looks a lot like the ens mean too

 

I agree, it looks a whole lot better. But the one thing that has bugged me all season that I have not seen is a trough over or near Japan having staying power. In comparison, that thing was there day in and day out in 13/14 and preceding/during our decent periods since. I'm not saying we can't score without it, but I feel we run the continued risk that east coast troughs that look good  in the medium range become transient or gone in the short term.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Sure does. Even has a low sitting just NE of Labrador under the GL ridge lol.

12z gefs really warmed up to the clipper type event d7 too. Not majority consensus yet but far better than any previous run. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z gefs really warmed up to the clipper type event d7 too. Not majority consensus yet but far better than any previous run. 

Good to see. I mentioned in an earlier post a few members were hinting at something during that time frame a few runs back. Signal seems to be getting stronger.

[Bob Chill]

18 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Good to see. I mentioned in an earlier post a few members were hinting at something during that time frame a few runs back. Signal seems to be getting stronger.

12z gefs was a borderline weenie run. Enough coastals showing up d10-16 to improve my overall pessimistic attitude. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z gefs was a borderline weenie run. Enough coastals showing up d10-16 to improve my overall pessimistic attitude. 

Lets hope the latest edition of the EPS weeklies will provide further improvement lol.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z gefs was a borderline weenie run. Enough coastals showing up d10-16 to improve my overall pessimistic attitude. 

Don't let my general positive attitude and love of pattern analysis to fool you, the last couple months have been rough and beyond frustrating at times even for me.  But yea the guidance has been trending better for several runs now with the one thing we really desperately need, to flip things up top.  And yes its still a long ways from verifying but its trending better as we get closer, and another good sign, its trending faster as we get closer.  The changes up there really start around day 8/9 now.  Its not stuck at day 15, its getting closer and if anything speeding up.  Not shocking, sometimes these phase flips up there just sneak up on the models.  The sudden appearance of something to track next week and maybe a "window" now showing itself for something bigger day 10-15 is a breath of fresh air.  No way to know yet if these are real or another rug about to be pulled but at least there is still hope.  We were wobbling on the edge of the cliff a couple days ago.