psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hasn't the LR almost continually showed an evolving 'favorable' pattern in the 13+ Day lead time since October only to fizzle out with a 10-day lead time or less? Now that the 13+ day progs show an atrocious pattern, I wouldn't be surprised to see that atrocious look vanish as lead time shrinks only to yield more favorable results irt to the overall pattern. I'm not saying it will happen but seriously.....we've gotten GREAT looks at long lead times over and over and over again since October only to have the football pulled out from under us ala Lucy. You don't think for a minute perhaps the same thing is happening here? I know, I know....but all signs point to crap pattern, PV is progged too far N etc....I get it. But we also were saying 13 days ago or so how ripe the pattern looked and some were calling a +PNA/-EPO/-AO a virtual lock and, ummm, well, yeah.....that worked out well. I don't agree we have had great looks at day 15 not verify. I don't but the going narrative that the guidance has failed us. We had decent looks at long range in December and we did verify a half decent pattern with some cold. But several systems came out spaces way far apart plus too much energy vs strung out waves. We needed a wave to ride the boundary and instead got cutter after cutter. Then we had a few days where the cold pressed and we needed something to amp and instead got weak waves suppressed south. Then as the cold left, cutter. It was flawed but not a god awful pattern. The models were showing the crap late dec pattern from 15 days. Then they showed the early Jan period that scored me my only snow and narrowly missed with the coastal. But they also nailed the reversion to an awful pattern to a warm pattern from range. Then they showed the colder shift coming. And it does look colder for a week. That doesn't mean snow. After they look mediocre. Not awful but not good. Actually some small adjustments and it could be ok so I'm not jumping yet but it's not looking great. But just because a few op runs at day 15 showed snow doesn't mean models teased us. There was never ever one instance this year where the majority of guidance was showing a strong signal for snow. We have had some decent "it could snow" looks but nothing like last years one good pattern was giving off signals at range. Or like in late 2015 or most of 2014 when there were times the long range ensemble mean snow was like 18" with no members showing less then 5". And the h5 was screaming oh yeah. This year the best we ever had was a pretty good opportunity never a great one. So maybe you saw some day 15 gfs run with 8" of snow and got excited but I feel like they never fooled us or lead us that wrong. The op euro showed some day 10 ghosts but never with ensemble support outside a. Hair Mary type chance. I've pretty much seen the decent colder periods and the crap warm ones coming from 2 weeks away all winter. The only thing they have busted on was thinking the nao might go negative during some of the colder periods. It did go slightly negative twice but mostly in the end they were pacific driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, kurtstack said: statistically it seems to be much better than any other long range tools for predicting winter weather months in advance. I would still favor it over any other methods. You can't over simplify the weather. Yes you can use one or two factors and just ride them and have a decent score rate but then you are resigned to fail anytime other factors drive the pattern like this year. If we ever want to fully realize the ability to predict seaonally with legit accuracy we must strive to understand all the permutations that go into the pattern and correctly weight them and how they play off each other to influence the seasonal variance. Ultimately it's probably not something we can do without the aid of a computer model to help assess the multitude of variables and combine analogs with objective guidance predicting pattern evolution to come up with a more holistic representation of the likely pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You can't over simplify the weather. Yes you can use one or two factors and just ride them and have a decent score rate but then you are resigned to fail anytime other factors drive the pattern like this year. If we ever want to fully realize the ability to predict seaonally with legit accuracy we must strive to understand all the permutations that go into the pattern and correctly weight them and how they play off each other to influence the seasonal variance. Ultimately it's probably not something we can do without the aid of a computer model to help assess the multitude of variables and combine analogs with objective guidance predicting pattern evolution to come up with a more holistic representation of the likely pattern. That is the holy grail - but for now SAI is the highest probability predictor we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, kurtstack said: That is the holy grail - but for now SAI is the highest probability predictor we have. Then we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Another +200 HR EURO MECS setup...Check out the energy coming down from Canada. Big +PNA and confluence locking in cold air.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: Another +200 HR EURO MECS setup...Check out the energy coming down from Canada. Big +PNA and confluence locking in cold air.... Yet through 240 there is nothing even close to what you are describing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 34 minutes ago, yoda said: Yet through 240 there is nothing even close to what you are describing It's one thing to look at things exactly how a 240 hour model is portraying it, and another way to look at the overall setup @ this time frame which is more important than specifics. I made the post when the EURO was at 200 hours or so Here was the 500mb map when I made the post. This SCREAMs MILLER B bonanza. (though I know that isn't always good for south of 40N.) And here is the 00z EURO @ 240 hours. It doesn't exactly form the 'storm', but @ 240 hours who gives a crap either way. It was close and could finally be something to track which is all I care about. When I look @ a model beyond Day 7 I don't care about specifics. It is about the players on the field, and @ the end of this run the players were on the field for something to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 40 minutes ago, yoda said: Yet through 240 there is nothing even close to what you are describing Sigh. Back to the icez we all know and love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Sigh. Back to the icez we all know and love. I love you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 As us Philadelphian's say these days.... TRUST THE PROCESS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Sigh. Back to the icez we all know and love. Disastrous posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 All of that for a Miller B phantom? Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Some baby steps on the overnight runs at range. EPS shows signs towards the end of shifting the trough east enough to allow cold to press and start to suppress the se ridge a bit. Geps develops a -nao. Gefs looked good at 0z but backed off at 6z. It simply shifted the whole pattern north a bit. They key is if we get the PV displaced south enough to press the cold and suppress the ridge. The guidance keeps shifting slightly and we end up on the right or wrong side of the boundary depending on the run. Lets hope the geps if sniffing out the long awaited phase change in the AO/nao. That would be the game changer we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Gefs isn't the end of the world either and starts raising heights over the top too just not to the level of the geps. But the pattern looks workable not back to a shutout at least right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs isn't the end of the world either and starts raising heights over the top too just not to the level of the geps. But the pattern looks workable not back to a shutout at least right now. Several runs ago the GEFS looked very similar to the current GEPS, then it backed off yesterday. Now its again hinting at higher heights north of the vortex. We will see. The guidance in general shows a -AO/NAO look at times in the LR, but it simply doesn't materialize. If it doesn't happen, we will still have some brief windows, but it would be nice to get a block up north that would lead to a longer duration favorable period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Given the record west qbo it's not shocking we are not seeing much blocking but we could sneak in a 2-3 week period late and the winter would still average a positive AO by far. Side rant since I have friends who actually still believe Jb stuff and it's annoying...It's funny but Joe D has shown several times the strong correlation between west qbo and positive nao and southeast ridge. It's just weird given he works with Jb who has a cold snowy forecast in the face of those facts. The other odd thing is when Jb first made his winter outlook in late summer he based his idea partially on the warm pool in the PAC (it's flipped cold) and lots of blocking due to low solar (studies actually show blocking is better towards the end of a minimum not the start) low geo mag (it's flared up unexpectedly, and an expected weak qbo (it's since gone to record levels). He also went front loaded winter. So every one of his reasons for snow are gone and his early winter busted. Yet he doesn't change his outlook and just shifts it back a month twice and some people are still listening to him and giving it any weight. It's just beyond my logical comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Given the record west qbo it's not shocking we are not seeing much blocking but we could sneak in a 2-3 week period late and the winter would still average a positive AO by far. Side rant since I have friends who actually still believe Jb stuff and it's annoying...It's funny but Joe D has shown several times the strong correlation between west qbo and positive nao and southeast ridge. It's just weird given he works with Jb who has a cold snowy forecast in the face of those facts. The other odd thing is when Jb first made his winter outlook in late summer he based his idea partially on the warm pool in the PAC (it's flipped cold) and lots of blocking due to low solar (studies actually show blocking is better towards the end of a minimum not the start) low geo mag (it's flared up unexpectedly, and an expected weak qbo (it's since gone to record levels). He also went front loaded winter. So every one of his reasons for snow are gone and his early winter busted. Yet he doesn't change his outlook and just shifts it back a month twice and some people are still listening to him and giving it any weight. It's just beyond my logical comprehension. the long and short of it is, no one can accurrately predict long range weather patterns, not even computer models, and once you accept that premise, then the rest is easy. I,m not a guru, just common sense. I read all , dt, jb steve martino, but reliize they still dont have enough skill to do long range forecasting. Just MHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Sorry, but I look at the end of both the GEFS and the GEPS and see the ridge near Alaska too far west and moving west. I see above normal heights and surface temps post 288 on the GEPS and a little later on the GEFS. I also see what appears to be a ridge in the southwest beginning to build again and move east in a similar fashion to how it occurred earlier in the run. Now can the higher heights over the Pole also mean something positive down the road? It might, but it's still going to have to fight the building ridge, etc. as I described. So the question comes down to whether the projected higher heights over the Pole that have never materialized for the past 3 winters going to overcome the persistent ridge over us, trough over the west, and ridge too far west of Alaska, all 3 of which have been around all year? I vote persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 20 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sorry, but I look at the end of both the GEFS and the GEPS and see the ridge near Alaska too far west and moving west. I see above normal heights and surface temps post 288 on the GEPS and a little later on the GEFS. I also see what appears to be a ridge in the southwest beginning to build again and move east in a similar fashion to how it occurred earlier in the run. Now can the higher heights over the Pole also mean something positive down the road? It might, but it's still going to have to fight the building ridge, etc. as I described. So the question comes down to whether the projected higher heights over the Pole that have never materialized for the past 3 winters going to overcome the persistent ridge over us, trough over the west, and ridge too far west of Alaska, all 3 of which have been around all year? I vote persistence. I think we can all admit that we are grasping at straws at this point with nothing legit to track. I appreciate psu trying to find any chance for something better in our future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 33 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sorry, but I look at the end of both the GEFS and the GEPS and see the ridge near Alaska too far west and moving west. I see above normal heights and surface temps post 288 on the GEPS and a little later on the GEFS. I also see what appears to be a ridge in the southwest beginning to build again and move east in a similar fashion to how it occurred earlier in the run. Now can the higher heights over the Pole also mean something positive down the road? It might, but it's still going to have to fight the building ridge, etc. as I described. So the question comes down to whether the projected higher heights over the Pole that have never materialized for the past 3 winters going to overcome the persistent ridge over us, trough over the west, and ridge too far west of Alaska, all 3 of which have been around all year? I vote persistence. The geps just developed the blocking day 14-16. It's not an instant response. If that h5 look is correct it would cool thereafter. Now if it's right is another story but I was analyzing the runs and pointing out some positive changes. You not believing them is perfectly legitimate but has nothing to do with what it shows. gefs is warm if you cherry pick a specific time on a specific run but I could do the same and say cold. 0z was a cold run right to the end. It was slightly south with the boundary and we stayed on the cold side right through. 6z shifted north such that for 2-3 days we go on the warm side but cold is pressing day 16 and we're about to go cold again so it's not awful. Yes heights are building in the southwest but that could end up stuck there not shifting east it's too soon to tell. If the PV is not displaced south enough then yes the ridge will build in. But on the gefs as is it looks like the cold is pressing at the end. Having some ridge under is ok. We can score a system along the boundary. The EPS is the worst look of the 3 but it's slightly improved from last run. Overall I don't claim it's a great look. But it could snow in that pattern if we get some luck when we're on the cold side of the boundary. It's far from ideal but not as bad as we've seen most of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Another point is I've given up on waiting for the unicorn pattern. Ain't happening. But feb and early march can be workable with a so so pattern. If we can get something that's at least not an uber torch we can at least try to get lucky and score a marginal event. Not all of our snow comes in perfect patterns. Also some in this forum still have a lot more time. If your in or east of 95 if gets dicey after the first week of march. Bet places nw in this forum can still take advantage well into march. Westminsters 2 biggest snows on record are after march 20. And 5 of the top 20 are after march 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 The gefs has been absolutely abysmal with ao/nao progs beyond d10. Verification has been embarassing. I like seeing it. Don't get me wrong. But a .000 batting average this year is hard to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 This is becoming an endless delay.. I am expecting it suddenly to get much colder than normal as soon as the end of March hits and setting up a terrible cold, poor fishing Spring! OK - Banter here.. Until we see things stick on models in the shorter ranges (less than 7 days) I think we can say the long term will revert to crap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 DT mentioned this as a something that MAY be something.. But it will probably not be our something and may be nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: DT mentioned this as a something that MAY be something.. But it will probably not be our something and may be nothing! It's a deep trough at 192 today 12z. But it looks too east and too positive. But deeper than last run from what I can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 EPS improved. Starts to progress the trough east day 15 with ridging developing in AO space. I'm sure someone will come along to say it won't happen but it looks about to set up a half decent pattern after a transient 2-3 day warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS improved. Starts to progress the trough east day 15 with ridging developing in AO space. I'm sure someone will come along to say it won't happen but it looks about to set up a half decent pattern after a transient 2-3 day warm up. I think we are mostly finished with saying what will or won't happen. Probably best to just wait how it plays out and expect very little. The theme on the GFS seems to be overall dry when the the cold is around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS improved. Starts to progress the trough east day 15 with ridging developing in AO space. I'm sure someone will come along to say it won't happen but it looks about to set up a half decent pattern after a transient 2-3 day warm up. I thought it looked good enough too. Hopefully it's not another rain/cold/cold leaves/rain progression. Heck, I'd kill for a clipper that drops 1-2 at this point. I keep hoping something like that pops up once the trough returns later this week but not even a hint of a fantasy dusting on any op run. This year has been no fun at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 At least the mountains (Canaan, Oakland, etc) should pick up anywhere from 6-12" snow later this week/next weekend - the ski resorts need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: EPS improved. Starts to progress the trough east day 15 with ridging developing in AO space. I'm sure someone will come along to say it won't happen but it looks about to set up a half decent pattern after a transient 2-3 day warm up. It will happen....I mean the warm up! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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