mdsnowlover Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Global warming has absolutely nothing to do with why we will not see snow with this system and everything to do with the temp setup pre-storm and the subsequent track of the low. its quite interesting to see bloggers here and the reasons it wont snow, waitting for trump election to be one of then lol!!!just a little fun comment On a blog i follow its already been used, hence my comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Global warming has absolutely nothing to do with why we will not see snow with this system and everything to do with the temp setup pre-storm and the subsequent track of the low. agreed. When people say stuff like this....it just scares me how much misinformation floats around the web. Good lord. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: agreed. When people say stuff like this....it just scares me how much misinformation floats around the web. Good lord. Nut you dont even want to go there lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The gefs looks workable to be long range. PV is displaced enough to press cold into the ridging to our south. The key to that pattern would be getting enough higher heights over the top to suppress the PV enough to get the boundary south of us. The EPS looks like crap. It's a total reversion to the seasonal base state. Any talk of the weeklies is irrelevant because the EPS has flipped to a completely different evolution then the run Wednesday night the weeklies were based on. So kiss that trough feb 6-10 goodbye. But the -AO didn't really get going until feb 10 or so. That's really our last hope as some have said. The only time we got any love from the PAC was when the mjo kicked in. That's going to fade and it immediately reverts to crap. The PAC base state just is not gonna do it this year. The only thing that could shake things up is if we get some help from the AO or Nao. Perhaps the warming helps. The end of the gefs hints at ridging up there. But if the AO stays positive the rest of winter were cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 32 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: tbe earth has been cooling over the last decade right in line with the sun in its maurder minimum cycle, despite the earth being the warmest ever by a full degree this past year I don't know how mny people read Theodore White's forecasts (Astromet is his common screen name on the web) but he's been saying for over a decade now that we are about to enter a serious global cooling period after our natural global warming cycle ends this year. Before people dismiss him, I know a lot have said that 2013-2014 was a surprise to everyone for the US's winter outcome, but I posted a screenshot of Theo'd forecast from 2009 claiming that 2013-2014 was a harsh winter for the US that he knew about for sometime. He said even though it was five winters away, it would serve warning as a hint of the type of winters to come. I've been reading his forecasts for 10 years now and it is pretty crazy how accurate his extremely long-term forecasts are for regional areas. And you can also find his forecasts for the extreme warmth we had in 2015 and 2016. He stated there would be an Indian Summer in 2015 that wouldn't make an appearance until January. I don't think it's a coincidence that we have been seeing some crazy blocks start forming in Arctic regions like Alaska and I suspect it'll get crazier sooner than people realize. When there's climate shifts, you start to mix in the weather of the coming climate, and there has been many recent outcomes of big cold and snow for people who are not used to it. I understand the warmth of 2015/2016 will continue to make headlines and right now our winter personally is sucking, but keep yours eyes open over the next few years as we head into the solar minimum and upcoming cycle 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Yea it's definitely crappy when the long range thread turns into a debate on global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea it's definitely crappy when the long range thread turns into a debate on global warming. Agreed - Everything is about GW these days (I refuse to use the term). And just when the mainstream contributors were really getting into... the... ahem... well.... ...guess I don't know what was coming down the pipe to help restore some faith in trying to salvage something resembling winter for Feb. Will keep lurking, hoping and when necessary prodding the GW weenies to go elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs looks workable to be long range. PV is displaced enough to press cold into the ridging to our south. The key to that pattern would be getting enough higher heights over the top to suppress the PV enough to get the boundary south of us. The EPS looks like crap. It's a total reversion to the seasonal base state. Any talk of the weeklies is irrelevant because the EPS has flipped to a completely different evolution then the run Wednesday night the weeklies were based on. So kiss that trough feb 6-10 goodbye. But the -AO didn't really get going until feb 10 or so. That's really our last hope as some have said. The only time we got any love from the PAC was when the mjo kicked in. That's going to fade and it immediately reverts to crap. The PAC base state just is not gonna do it this year. The only thing that could shake things up is if we get some help from the AO or Nao. Perhaps the warming helps. The end of the gefs hints at ridging up there. But if the AO stays positive the rest of winter were cooked. I mentioned this in an an earlier post. Agree on the GEFS. Hopefully the EPS comes around a bit or that look is temporary. Always the chance we revert back to the crappy Dec pattern though. GEFS isn't really far from that either if the heights don't build up north as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The gefs looks workable to be long range. PV is displaced enough to press cold into the ridging to our south. The key to that pattern would be getting enough higher heights over the top to suppress the PV enough to get the boundary south of us. The EPS looks like crap. It's a total reversion to the seasonal base state. Any talk of the weeklies is irrelevant because the EPS has flipped to a completely different evolution then the run Wednesday night the weeklies were based on. So kiss that trough feb 6-10 goodbye. But the -AO didn't really get going until feb 10 or so. That's really our last hope as some have said. The only time we got any love from the PAC was when the mjo kicked in. That's going to fade and it immediately reverts to crap. The PAC base state just is not gonna do it this year. The only thing that could shake things up is if we get some help from the AO or Nao. Perhaps the warming helps. The end of the gefs hints at ridging up there. But if the AO stays positive the rest of winter were cooked. After 3 consecutive winters of above average snowfall (even though all of last year's came at once, lol)...and with things hovering around a weak la nina/neutral thus year...I figured we may be in for a dud this winter, lol Is it time to punt yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea some ugly years but we could take heart that 2007 is number 1. That's about the best we could hope for and a turnaround year. I think bwi got about 10" after feb 1 and we were doing equally as bad before it. I think it was about 20" post feb 1 up here if my memory is right. Down in D.C. for the march so can't look stuff up. 2007 wasn't a fluke either if anything we could have done better with more luck it was a legit extended cold pattern. 2/07 totals included the 4" of sleet. Meh. We've just come off 3 AN snowfall winters culminating in the largest snowfall ever at Baltimore, and each year was great in its own right. I expected this year to be lousy as a result of Enso conditions, but it's surpassed even my expectations so far. At this point, I'm following wx out of 40+ years of habit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 2/07 totals included the 4" of sleet. Meh. We've just come off 3 AN snowfall winters culminating in the largest snowfall ever at Baltimore, and each year was great in its own right. I expected this year to be lousy as a result of Enso conditions, but it's surpassed even my expectations so far. At this point, I'm following wx out of 40+ years of habit. Yeah, habit. Think that is the only reason I am still following also. Otherwise I would have been checked out by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 59 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: After 3 consecutive winters of above average snowfall (even though all of last year's came at once, lol)...and with things hovering around a weak la nina/neutral thus year...I figured we may be in for a dud this winter, lol Is it time to punt yet? I was resigned to a bad year from the start. But there is bad and there is awful. I've been just hopeful with luck we could scrape our way to a few modest snow events and maybe luck into a significantly can't event and make our way to a respectable season like 25" up here and 10-15" in Baltimore kind of year. But the chance this was a 2012 type dud has existed all along. Time to punt any snow no of course not. We could go into match w nothing then get a 6" snow. But if your still imagining some kind of snow blitz forget it. We're fighting to avoid total futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Global warming has absolutely nothing to do with why we will not see snow with this system and everything to do with the temp setup pre-storm and the subsequent track of the low. and the pre-storm temp setup has nothing to do with global warming?? lol not saying there's a correlation, but you're argument against it is pretty weak. long story short, whether global warming is temporary or not, the earth has been warming. that's a fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, 87storms said: and the pre-storm temp setup has nothing to do with global warming?? lol not saying there's a correlation, but you're argument against it is pretty weak. long story short, whether global warming is temporary or not, the earth has been warming. that's a fact. Pre-Storm temps have everything to do with the pattern preceding the storm which flooded the CONUS with pacific air and nothing more. As far as my argument being weak, well whatever. I think most on this board that have a somewhat basic understanding of the weather would strongly agree with me. Now I am done with this Global Warming crap in a thread devoted to the models and the long range. Let's keep it elsewhere, like maybe the forum devoted for, guess what? Global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 GW talk seems silly with the rain storm. It's not like we're just missing by a couple degrees. We're missing by like 10-20 degrees. It's not even close to being considered marginal. There were plenty of winter rain storms in the 1800s. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Pre-Storm temps have everything to do with the pattern preceding the storm which flooded the CONUS with pacific air and nothing more. As far as my argument being weak, well whatever. I think most on this board that have a somewhat basic understanding of the weather would strongly agree with me. Now I am done with this Global Warming crap in a thread devoted to the models and the long range. Let's keep it elsewhere, like maybe the forum devoted for, guess what? Global warming. I agree with you. We are on the wrong end of a stubborn pattern. Might break might not. We just need something to break in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I've been gone almost 240 hours and not a damn thing has changed. Lol. Back Stateside tomm. Y'all better have something good for me by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I've been gone almost 240 hours and not a damn thing has changed. Lol. Back Stateside tomm. Y'all better have something good for me by then. Might as well stay another 240. You'll miss nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Im sorry guys just thought it was relevant but I also disagree. Only reason I posted it because this was coming from a person I trust and has been actually teaching weather for past 15 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: Im sorry guys just thought it was relevant but I also disagree. Only reason I posted it because this was coming from a person I trust and has been actually teaching weather for past 15 years or so. Nice story. Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 hours ago, showmethesnow said: Pre-Storm temps have everything to do with the pattern preceding the storm which flooded the CONUS with pacific air and nothing more. As far as my argument being weak, well whatever. I think most on this board that have a somewhat basic understanding of the weather would strongly agree with me. Now I am done with this Global Warming crap in a thread devoted to the models and the long range. Let's keep it elsewhere, like maybe the forum devoted for, guess what? Global warming. You can't comment on GW and then tell people not to respond. Gimme a break. Also I made it clear there may not be enough correlation to affect this particular setup (as Bob alluded to) but no one really knows how much downstream impact GW really does have. It's not just about a couple of degrees. Any small shift COULD affect things at a greater scale than we realize. I just get tired of people trying to ignore its impacts when they really don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: You can't comment on GW and then tell people not to respond. Gimme a break. Also I made it clear there may not be enough correlation to affect this particular setup (as Bob alluded to) but no one really knows how much downstream impact GW really does have. It's not just about a couple of degrees. Any small shift COULD affect things at a greater scale than we realize. I just get tired of people trying to ignore its impacts when they really don't know. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/18-climate-change/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Looking over todays 12z ensemble runs, here are my quick take aways. Little if any hint of a -AO/NAO. Not surprising, as anytime that look appears for a few runs, it just as quickly disappears. I suppose if you want to be pessimistic, towards day 15 the pattern looks a lot like what we were hoping to get away from. It may or may not be persistent- my gut says its progressive and the western trough wont lock in for long. After next weeks big rainstorm, things look colder, but dry unless we can get a ns vort to amplify a bit. Looks like a clipperfest where the mountains pick up some decent snows but generally dry in our region(cold & dry!). Beyond that, and leading into the moderation period, there may be a brief window for a more significant storm. Looking at the GEFS ens members, there seems to be a decent signal from about 1/31 to 2/4. One other note, the CFS has also moved away from the robust negative AO/NAO idea (surprise). Overall we have some "workable" periods upcoming, but nothing that makes me super confident there will be a widespread winter storm in the MA. Beyond that, who freaking knows. Based on the end of the EPS run, there are enough changes(more signifiant +h5 heights in the east) that the most recent weeklies run is now pretty useless. Have to wait on the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 I have little faith we get a much better pattern without the nao/AO help that keeps disappearing before becoming reality. I do wonder how much the off the charts qbo is hurting us. We will have some very transient windows perhaps like the one early January but nothing sustained. One such window is day 6-12 but we look to waste that because the trough axis seems too east and the pna ridge is building over the top a bit much which flattens the trough instead of getting a sharper one. The nao don't help either. It's still far enough out to keep an eye to see if maybe something can trend more amplified but the last 72 hours it's been going the wrong way. The best shot might be as the pattern relaxes. Odds are something comes across during that time and perhaps if enough cold is left around.... after that it looks blah. Not quite as bad as before. More like the mid December pattern but feb style. That's not the end of the world but it's not great by any stretch. We could score something if we timed something up during a period when the cold pushes along the boundary. But honestly our best hope is that the nao or AO decides to flip phases suddenly geps hints at something late. Gefs is meh. EPS is the worst look and shifts the PV bank up poleward. A few days ago I said if that showed up we were in trouble and so my more negative tone is directly linked to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2017 Author Share Posted January 21, 2017 What's really in trouble is the SAI theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 38 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What's really in trouble is the SAI theory. Yea there might be some correlation but it's far too unreliable to make the main determinate in any forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What's really in trouble is the SAI theory. Snake oil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I have little faith we get a much better pattern without the nao/AO help that keeps disappearing before becoming reality. I do wonder how much the off the charts qbo is hurting us. We will have some very transient windows perhaps like the one early January but nothing sustained. One such window is day 6-12 but we look to waste that because the trough axis seems too east and the pna ridge is building over the top a bit much which flattens the trough instead of getting a sharper one. The nao don't help either. It's still far enough out to keep an eye to see if maybe something can trend more amplified but the last 72 hours it's been going the wrong way. The best shot might be as the pattern relaxes. Odds are something comes across during that time and perhaps if enough cold is left around.... after that it looks blah. Not quite as bad as before. More like the mid December pattern but feb style. That's not the end of the world but it's not great by any stretch. We could score something if we timed something up during a period when the cold pushes along the boundary. But honestly our best hope is that the nao or AO decides to flip phases suddenly geps hints at something late. Gefs is meh. EPS is the worst look and shifts the PV bank up poleward. A few days ago I said if that showed up we were in trouble and so my more negative tone is directly linked to that Hasn't the LR almost continually showed an evolving 'favorable' pattern in the 13+ Day lead time since October only to fizzle out with a 10-day lead time or less? Now that the 13+ day progs show an atrocious pattern, I wouldn't be surprised to see that atrocious look vanish as lead time shrinks only to yield more favorable results irt to the overall pattern. I'm not saying it will happen but seriously.....we've gotten GREAT looks at long lead times over and over and over again since October only to have the football pulled out from under us ala Lucy. You don't think for a minute perhaps the same thing is happening here? I know, I know....but all signs point to crap pattern, PV is progged too far N etc....I get it. But we also were saying 13 days ago or so how ripe the pattern looked and some were calling a +PNA/-EPO/-AO a virtual lock and, ummm, well, yeah.....that worked out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Yea there might be some correlation but it's far too unreliable to make the main determinate in any forecast. statistically it seems to be much better than any other long range tools for predicting winter weather months in advance. I would still favor it over any other methods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 28 minutes ago, kurtstack said: statistically it seems to be much better than any other long range tools for predicting winter weather months in advance. I would still favor it over any other methods. It's worked great the past 3 winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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