psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Which weeklies does he use if anyone knows the answer? I'd guess the cfsv2? What's interesting to me is I think JB does a stellar job of anticipating model trends even if his magnitude tends to be over-hyped. I can't think of another met who points out an h5 map so easily publicly to say "this is why this output will not verify in this region and here is what to expect." I had a subscription with wxbell and I still watch every video from them i can. I'd honestly favor eps weeklies over anything climate-based for the medium-range because of resolution, but that's personal preference. I think ttdb is catching up with them with the data offerings all except the fined details of the ecmwf products, so no complaints! I'm curious if the cfs weeklies on tropicaltidbits verifies his analysis...will update this post after checking He was talking about the euro. The cfs has actually been cold lately most runs. But it shifts so often who can keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: He was talking about the euro. The cfs has actually been cold lately most runs. But it shifts so often who can keep up. What's the difference between euro weeklies and the eps or are they one in the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, BTRWx said: What's the difference between euro weeklies and the eps or are they one in the same? Basically the weeklies are the eps extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Basically the weeklies are the eps extended. Thanks! The Europeans are coming up with a heck of a lot more data sets these days, but only a select few are free. http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/extended-range-forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 Personally, I'd feel a whole lot better about February if the Cansips come around. But they don't update the monthly forecast until the 0z run on the 1st of each month, so I'll be doing the limbo for the next 11 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Personally, I'd feel a whole lot better about February if the Cansips come around. But they don't update the monthly forecast until the 0z run on the 1st of each month, so I'll be doing the limbo for the next 11 days. I'm a little less optimistic then I was a week ago but kind of lukewarm on feb and march. Best guess is we get some chances. Marginally better. And odds favor we luck into some snow. Even years we had very little snow going into feb we manages 6" or more 66% of the time. So we still likely see some snow somewhere. I know many hate late snow but we do still have 6 weeks of legit snow climo left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 hours ago, mitchnick said: Personally, I'd feel a whole lot better about February if the Cansips come around. But they don't update the monthly forecast until the 0z run on the 1st of each month, so I'll be doing the limbo for the next 11 days. Meh CFS has been rock steady for many runs now, advertising a favorable Feb pattern. I am rolling with it. That and the EPS weeklies look good wrt the AO/NAO and PNA, even if the heights at mid latitudes don't seem to match up overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Meh CFS has been rock steady for many runs now, advertising a favorable Feb pattern. I am rolling with it. That and the EPS weeklies look good wrt the AO/NAO and PNA, even if the heights at mid latitudes don't seem to match up overall. The Cansips forecast from 12/1 did a great job for December and January, so I'm going with the hottest hand. For whatever reason, I've noticed that models just do better in certain seasons than others for reasons unknown to me. For example, I recall the RGEM doing really well in 14/15, but has sucked this year. Clearly, however, the Euro is probably the best on average, year in and year out. As for the Euro weeklies, I feel they are hit and miss and they have been prone to show blocking in previous runs this year that have failed to materialize. So I don't have much faith in them until they can verify the blocking they're advertising. As for the CFS, likewise, I'm not prepared to take its cold forecasts seriously. Although its warm forecasts this year have been decent! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Not sure why I'm up at 5:00 AM on a Saturday, but decided to look at the 4K NAM. What the... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Not sure why I'm up at 5:00 AM on a Saturday, but decided to look at the 4K NAM. What the... good morning sir what's your tale on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said: good morning sir what's your tale on this Can only hope it's a trend that more cold air is being generated by stronger storm. I'll let my favorite experts here chime in when they wake up, but that's my thoughts on this anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Can only hope it's a trend that more cold air is being generated by stronger storm. I'll let my favorite experts here chime in when they wake up, but that's my thoughts on this anyway. gfs has nothing till day 9 and its only light snow, tyvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 48 minutes ago, Scraff said: Not sure why I'm up at 5:00 AM on a Saturday, but decided to look at the 4K NAM. What the... The 12 K NAM also brings snow down to the PA/MD border. Would love to see this verify. But if our last hope is counting on the NAM at range then chances are we are pooched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 9 hours ago, mitchnick said: The Cansips forecast from 12/1 did a great job for December and January, so I'm going with the hottest hand. For whatever reason, I've noticed that models just do better in certain seasons than others for reasons unknown to me. For example, I recall the RGEM doing really well in 14/15, but has sucked this year. Clearly, however, the Euro is probably the best on average, year in and year out. As for the Euro weeklies, I feel they are hit and miss and they have been prone to show blocking in previous runs this year that have failed to materialize. So I don't have much faith in them until they can verify the blocking they're advertising. As for the CFS, likewise, I'm not prepared to take its cold forecasts seriously. Although its warm forecasts this year have been decent! Lol I just have a glass half full mindset lately. LR tools are what they are. They typically shift around quite a bit. I dont normally look at the CFS much, but its been less jumpy lately and to me there are similarities between it and the EPS weeklies for early-mid Feb, and the general pattern depiction is not bad. It could always play out differently, or it may end up similar to what is currently being advertised, but we still fail to take advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 54 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: The 12 K NAM also brings snow down to the PA/MD border. Would love to see this verify. But if our last hope is counting on the NAM at range then chances are we are pooched. Don't worry. The 6z GFS gives us a few flakes on January 30, thereby saving our winter. And then on Feb. 3rd, just like clockwork, a more significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I just have a glass half full mindset lately. LR tools are what they are. They typically shift around quite a bit. I dont normally look at the CFS much, but its been less jumpy lately and to me there are similarities between it and the EPS weeklies for early-mid Feb, and the general pattern depiction is not bad. It could always play out differently, or it may end up similar to what is currently being advertised, but we still fail to take advantage. Started to look at the long range this morning and after 5 minutes gave up. I'll admit it, this winter has beaten me down to where I don't have the desire anymore to follow potential promising patterns only to watch them fail when they get closer in time. So I am counting on you and PSU to give us a heads up. I would include Bob with both of you but I think he is of the same mindset as myself at this point. So we are all counting on you two to save the winter. Don't fail us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Don't worry. The 6z GFS gives us a few flakes on January 30, thereby saving our winter. And then on Feb. 3rd, just like clockwork, a more significant event. I am not worried. After careful analysis of patterns, indices, solar activity, etc..., etc..., etc... the closet analog by far, for the upcoming year, is the year 1816. So we will get a save. it might just be a little later then when we would normally expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Started to look at the long range this morning and after 5 minutes gave up. I'll admit it, this winter has beaten me down to where I don't have the desire anymore to follow potential promising patterns only to watch them fail when they get closer in time. So I am counting on you and PSU to give us a heads up. I would include Bob with both of you but I think he is of the same mindset as myself at this point. So we are all counting on you two to save the winter. Don't fail us. I think there are subtle improvements on the GEFS over the past few runs, specifically towards the end of the run. Still have the big AK ridge building a bit too far west(again) but the positive height anomalies that were showing up over the east coast in previous runs are now located more to the south and southwest, Also heights are building over the top of the Hudson Bay vortex. As others have said and I agree with, we really need to get a -AO/NAO period to improve our odds. There are indications on most guidance towards early Feb, but we have seen this many times at long leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I think there are subtle improvements on the GEFS over the past few runs, specifically towards the end of the run. Still have the big AK ridge building a bit too far west(again) but the positive height anomalies over the east in previous runs are now located more to the south and southwest, Also heights are building over the top of the Hudson Bay vortex. As others have said and I agree with, we really need to get a -AO/NAO period to improve our odds. There are hints, but we have see this many times at long leads. As you know I have harped on about the -NAO most of the year. Well that and the mean trough continually setting up between the west and central portions of the CONUS. We have had somewhat promising looks this winter that if we had seen an -NAO we would probably be now discussing the potential to top the seasonal snowfall. Instead we are left wondering if this winter might end up on the list as one of the biggest fails. Anyway, I appreciate you and PSU's updates. Saves me the trouble of spending a good deal of time analyzing the long range only to be frustrated and venting on these boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: As you know I have harped on about the -NAO most of the year. Well that and the mean trough continually setting up between the west and central portions of the CONUS. We have had somewhat promising looks this winter that if we had seen an -NAO we would probably be now discussing the potential to top the seasonal snowfall. Instead we are left wondering if this winter might end up on the list as one of the biggest fails. Anyway, I appreciate you and PSU's updates. Saves me the trouble of spending a good deal of time analyzing the long range only to be frustrated and venting on these boards. My feeling about this winter going in was that most in our region would be lucky to see average snowfall. No real basis for it other than the possibility of a la nina, the likelihood of a predominantly +NAO, and the fact that we were due for a low snowfall winter. That storm in early Jan however put places along the coast pretty much at their average or even above in some cases. My gut told me to chase that sucker because it was so close and might be my only shot at experiencing a 10" event this winter. As it turned out I ended up with 6 at home, but being at the beach with the heavy snow falling and the blowing and drifting, the whole scene was just amazing. Glad I did it, as that might be the best event I see for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 Anyone ever see this on Tropical Tidbits? Idk when it was generated, but it seems to have done pretty well so far. The good news, I suppose, is that February looks better (but not great imho.) Bad news is the list of analog years. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/analogs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: My feeling about this winter going in was that most in our region would be lucky to see average snowfall. No real basis for it other than the possibility of a la nina, the likelihood of a predominantly +NAO, and the fact that we were due for a low snowfall winter. That storm in early Jan however put places along the coast pretty much at their average or even above in some cases. My gut told me to chase that sucker because it was so close and might be my only shot at experiencing a 10" event this winter. As it turned out I ended up with 6 at home, but being at the beach with the heavy snow falling and the blowing and drifting, the whole scene was just amazing. Glad I did it, as that might be the best event I see for quite a while. Going to keep rubbing our faces in your snow at the beach, aren't you. But you made the smart move. When your own back yard isn't producing, up stakes and find a new back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Anyone ever see this on Tropical Tidbits? Idk when it was generated, but it seems to have done pretty well so far. The good news, I suppose, is that February looks better (but not great imho.) Bad news is the list of analog years. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/analogs/ Yeah, I noticed a while back but had forgotten all about it. Really know nothing about it's reliability though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 one thing that you can at least think about as to why we aren't getting snow with the upcoming storm is global warming. Someone I know made a good point and brought up how a similar storm like this maybe 20-30 years ago in the same pattern probably would have been snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: one thing that you can at least think about as to why we aren't getting snow with the upcoming storm is global warming. Someone I know made a good point and brought up how a similar storm like this maybe 20-30 years ago in the same pattern probably would have been snow. Ahh, no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Anyone ever see this on Tropical Tidbits? Idk when it was generated, but it seems to have done pretty well so far. The good news, I suppose, is that February looks better (but not great imho.) Bad news is the list of analog years. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/analogs/ Yea some ugly years but we could take heart that 2007 is number 1. That's about the best we could hope for and a turnaround year. I think bwi got about 10" after feb 1 and we were doing equally as bad before it. I think it was about 20" post feb 1 up here if my memory is right. Down in D.C. for the march so can't look stuff up. 2007 wasn't a fluke either if anything we could have done better with more luck it was a legit extended cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ahh, no! Can we agree to beat him with a stick now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 18 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: one thing that you can at least think about as to why we aren't getting snow with the upcoming storm is global warming. Someone I know made a good point and brought up how a similar storm like this maybe 20-30 years ago in the same pattern probably would have been snow. tbe earth has been cooling over the last decade right in line with the sun in its maurder minimum cycle, despite the earth being the warmest ever by a full degree this past year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ahh, no! good point, agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 20 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: one thing that you can at least think about as to why we aren't getting snow with the upcoming storm is global warming. Someone I know made a good point and brought up how a similar storm like this maybe 20-30 years ago in the same pattern probably would have been snow. Global warming has absolutely nothing to do with why we will not see snow with this system and everything to do with the temp setup pre-storm and the subsequent track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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