January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

If the +pna is real and stays put in time once were in regular ens range then I'll feel pretty good for more chances during prime time. 

If the AK trough proves persistent then we are looking at a rough year outside of flukes. Hopefully we get another shot over the next 10 days so Jan will look better on paper when all said and done. 

Definitely agree it has to be correct or else it's pointless. But I felt it was about as good a run as we could hope for in terms of breaking down the look we knew would be day 15 within a week. 

[Heisy]

Anything on 00z EURO? My internet is broke

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Anything on 00z EURO? My internet is broke

High is behind instead of in front this run. Not as good. Manages to end as some snow day 9. 1-2" Baltimore north. 

[WxUSAF]

Late next week is torchtastic on the GFS. Pushing 70 on Friday?

[PhineasC]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Late next week is torchtastic on the GFS. Pushing 70 on Friday?

LOL so classic. Go in the icebox and miss a storm to your SE and then warm right back up. Awful. 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, PhineasC said:

LOL so classic. Go in the icebox and miss a storm to your SE and then warm right back up. Awful. 

It's worse because we keep torching with a 1050+ arctic high parked over Quebec.

[RIC_WX]

I think there was a note that 2016 finished #2 all time warm at DCA.  Most of the years on list, the following winters were some of our all time dogs.  By next weekend, met winter is half over folks...might be time to let this one go.  Actually, given how bad the pattern has been at times, I am only surprised it actually hasn't been warmer in the means to this point.  Given that many pre-season predictions were for a "front loaded" winter, I have a feeling the cards are on the table and the...ugh...best may be yet to come in terms of +departures.

[mattie g]

16 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

I think there was a note that 2016 finished #2 all time warm at DCA.  Most of the years on list, the following winters were some of our all time dogs.  By next weekend, met winter is half over folks...might be time to let this one go.  Actually, given how bad the pattern has been at times, I am only surprised it actually hasn't been warmer in the means to this point.  Given that many pre-season predictions were for a "front loaded" winter, I have a feeling the cards are on the table and the...ugh...best may be yet to come in terms of +departures.

Thanks for the advice.

Now bugger off to the Panic Room.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, RIC_WX said:

I think there was a note that 2016 finished #2 all time warm at DCA.  Most of the years on list, the following winters were some of our all time dogs.  By next weekend, met winter is half over folks...might be time to let this one go.  Actually, given how bad the pattern has been at times, I am only surprised it actually hasn't been warmer in the means to this point.  Given that many pre-season predictions were for a "front loaded" winter, I have a feeling the cards are on the table and the...ugh...best may be yet to come in terms of +departures.

I agree the signs so far are bad and the overall warmth lately globally may be skewing things even warmer, but I do not think its necessarily true we are screwed for the second half.  Punting the first half does increase our chances of a craptastic year yes but I am not sold were doomed to a total bust waste year with no significant snow yet.  Long range guidance sucks yes, but the euro weeklies have been fairly consistent with building a good pattern in Feb.  Plus the progression actually makes sense.  I can't take credit but checking on what others have said found that west QBO years with neutral or cold enso do tend to favor more high lat blocking later vs early in winter.  There are signs the PNA is flipping and simple law of averages would say its about time.  Your point about seasonal expectations and an early start are true but that was mostly based on the fact that some nina's have had a cold period in December.  We did have one also but it didn't work out for snow.  But if you look at those years they also tended to have a late favorable period and some hits.  99 and 2009 are examples.  Those years sucked overall but they weren't snowless disasters at least with late saves.  I think we are fighting for respectable here not a seasonal win.  I guess it depends on expectations.  For me here I am just shooting to get to 20", for me that is only about half of climo, so that would be like 10" in Baltimore or 8" in DC.  Pretty modest.  I just want to avoid the truly epic fails like 2002 or 1973.  Hate to say it but there are some factors at play this year that make that fate a possibility if we dont get a little luck.  We have had 2 threats for DC go by the way side.  Another tomorrow may or may not.  The day 10 thing looks to be loosing support.  The high is still there but the timing seems off, need the high to get out in front, given the ridging it wont work from behind.  There will be more threats but not a crazy number like some years, going to have to have a better batting average this year to avoid a horrible fate. 

[RIC_WX]

41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I just want to avoid the truly epic fails like 2002 or 1973.  Hate to say it but there are some factors at play this year that make that fate a possibility if we dont get a little luck.  

So, you might want to ignore the obvious similarities to late December 2001 or 1973 to the storm this weekend.  The only difference I can see to late 2001 is the big warmup is coming about 72 hours later as opposed to 24.  But, in the late December 2001 case RIC solidly outsnowed DCA and that turned out to be the biggest event of the season for both stations.  There are more examples in the record than you might think when RIC has outperformed DCA in absolute terms, but you have to go back to the 1960's to find a year where RIC outperformed DCA seasonally and both stations finished climo+.

I agree model watching and speculation is fun but at some point, it's less signal and more noise.  Pretty soon we'll be talking about "how warm winters end cold".

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

So, you might want to ignore the obvious similarities to late December 2001 or 1973 to the storm this weekend.  The only difference I can see to late 2001 is the big warmup is coming about 72 hours later as opposed to 24.  But, in the late December 2001 case RIC solidly outsnowed DCA and that turned out to be the biggest event of the season for both stations.  There are more examples in the record than you might think when RIC has outperformed DCA in absolute terms, but you have to go back to the 1960's to find a year where RIC outperformed DCA seasonally and both stations finished climo+.

I agree model watching and speculation is fun but at some point, it's less signal and more noise.  Pretty soon we'll be talking about "how warm winters end cold".

I disagree with the noise thing.  Right now we see pretty good signal that it will be a bad pattern for snow going into mid January.  After that is noise because its 2 weeks away.  But the last time we saw signals it identified a threat window and it was legit.  We had 2 chances in 3 days.  One missed just NW of DC and was pretty weak sauce.  That sucks, slightly south with the arctic wave and a bit more amp and that could have done something.  This next one might miss south.  Crap luck.  And yes Ender had an excellent post about how the analogs all week have painted the picture of a miss south, a reason I didnt laugh away the suppression threat like some did, but the problem with those analogs is they rely on the predicted pattern being correct.  What we were hoping for was that the models were wrong and it ended up being a more amplified system that would favor a further north trend.  Of course that goes against some larger scale features that argued for this progressive nature like the current NAO and PNA state.  But to say the threat window was not real is silly when its snowing close by twice this week.  Long range prediction is about identifying the pattern and threat windows.  Getting a hit within those is more about luck.  I know last winter I felt really good about 3 periods.  All 3 produced some snow within our region.  The big one obviously.  The Feb window that had a wave go south then the ice.  And in march when we did see some mood flakes and I got a couple inches but the storm just didn't come together.  Did all produce a big snowstorm, no, but they all had a chance to produce snow. 

That aside I agree there are some troubling years showing up when you look at analogs and different characteristics.  but there are also still some decent examples of ways to avoid that fate.  2005 keeps showing up.  That year flipped around late January and wasnt half bad the rest of the way.  Just have to hope for some luck with that too.  As for richmond, any year that is just awful stacks the odds of them beating DC because one fluke storm can do it.  Same with up here, the very few examples of years where DC or Philly got more snow then me it was in a totally crappy year and they got a coastal hit that was a fringe job back here.  The more threats you get the more things are stacked to advantage the place that averages more snow.  So while the stat is real, its more counter intuitive since we don't know how the rest of winter will go it doesn't help as a predictive tool. 

[RIC_WX]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2005 keeps showing up.  

2005 was very cold from the 5th-23rd of December (a Dec. 5 snow event year, despite mild antecedent conditions); otherwise very warm, especially the final 7 days of the month.  It was a sudden reversal, and IIRC all of the NWP schemes were showing endless cold into January until about the 21st and within 48 hours, it all suddenly broke down in a bad way.  Despite that, it was still colder in the means than this year, because the middle 2 weeks of the month were almost unabated cold - most of the local stations would have been top 10 coldest December to that point, all the comparisons were to 1989.  The NWP schemes were poor that winter too due to the fast flow (hence, my comment that some years just have more noise).  No two analog years are the same and I agree there are similarities with the cold being concentrated to our NW, but in the means this 2016-17 is warmer so far.  2005-6 started cold and ended cold, and was more consistently warmer in the period centered around new years.

[Bob Chill]

I haven't been following too closely lately because the LR has been looking pretty rough but I have to be honest...the d10-15 period on the EPS is absolutely atrocious. And before anyone jumps in and say "models can't get a 2 day forecast right", the trend has been going on for a while and keep getting worse. The look isn't just a winter cancel in the MA. It's winter cancel everywhere unless you live at 8k'+ in the rockies. 

[stormtracker]

22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I haven't been following too closely lately because the LR has been looking pretty rough but I have to be honest...the d10-15 period on the EPS is absolutely atrocious. And before anyone jumps in and say "models can't get a 2 day forecast right", the trend has been going on for a while and keep getting worse. The look isn't just a winter cancel in the MA. It's winter cancel everywhere unless you live at 8k'+ in the rockies. 

Just keep it like this until Jan 24th, thanks.  

[Ji]

GFS shows ice next weekend

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[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Just keep it like this until Jan 24th, thanks.  

What's the snow outlook in Vienna? Lol

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, RIC_WX said:

2005 was very cold from the 5th-23rd of December (a Dec. 5 snow event year, despite mild antecedent conditions); otherwise very warm, especially the final 7 days of the month.  It was a sudden reversal, and IIRC all of the NWP schemes were showing endless cold into January until about the 21st and within 48 hours, it all suddenly broke down in a bad way.  Despite that, it was still colder in the means than this year, because the middle 2 weeks of the month were almost unabated cold - most of the local stations would have been top 10 coldest December to that point, all the comparisons were to 1989.  The NWP schemes were poor that winter too due to the fast flow (hence, my comment that some years just have more noise).  No two analog years are the same and I agree there are similarities with the cold being concentrated to our NW, but in the means this 2016-17 is warmer so far.  2005-6 started cold and ended cold, and was more consistently warmer in the period centered around new years.

2004-5 is the year I was talking about. Early Jan 2005 shows up in the pattern analogs a lot. If we evolve out like we did that year I'll take it. 3 moderate snows with several clippers thrown in. Respectable year. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I haven't been following too closely lately because the LR has been looking pretty rough but I have to be honest...the d10-15 period on the EPS is absolutely atrocious. And before anyone jumps in and say "models can't get a 2 day forecast right", the trend has been going on for a while and keep getting worse. The look isn't just a winter cancel in the MA. It's winter cancel everywhere unless you live at 8k'+ in the rockies. 

It's bad. Lost the look for a fluke snow too. The highs come but too far north to help here. But might halt the torch at times. Keep things in the 40s a few days but that's about it. However I do see a light at the end. Today I thought the end of the EPS starts to look like the weeklies say the start of the breakdown happens. The ridge axis is starting to pull north. Thats step one. Once it gets back towards Hudson Bay the AK trough starts to pull back and then it flips. Trough pops under the ridge and we're back. We can only see step one but it's showing up on time. That's about the only silver lining we got. 

[RIC_WX]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2004-5 is the year I was talking about. Early Jan 2005 shows up in the pattern analogs a lot. If we evolve out like we did that year I'll take it. 3 moderate snows with several clippers thrown in. Respectable year. 

That thought occurred to me too after my last response :-).  I agree, and posted about the SE VA snow in late December 2004 yesterday.  That storm had a razor sharp cutoff too, with 12" over the HR peninsula and nothing at RIC.  I do remember the clipper snows later on, and the biggest (-) departures showing up in early-mid March.  I don't recall much second half snowfall south of DCA however, might have been more productive further north.  Was my first season on these boards.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

That thought occurred to me too after my last response :-).  I agree, and posted about the SE VA snow in late December 2004 yesterday.  That storm had a razor sharp cutoff too, with 12" over the HR peninsula and nothing at RIC.  I do remember the clipper snows later on, and the biggest (-) departures showing up in early-mid March.  I don't recall much second half snowfall south of DCA however, might have been more productive further north.  Was my first season on these boards.

Yea it sucked south of D.C.  DT had an epic melt down that year after twice snow threats trended north.  People get pissy about the late Jan HECS for New England because it only dropped 3-5" across the D.C. Area and 4-8" across Maryland but this year that's like Valhalla. Then several 1-3" clippers and 2 storms back to back late feb early march that were 3-6" around the D.C.-Balt. If you offered an ending like that this year I'll buy. Similar year, no snow early. A storm miss south. And better then some of the other years that fall in that category. 

[HighStakes]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea it sucked south of D.C.  DT had an epic melt down that year after twice snow threats trended north.  People get pissy about the late Jan HECS for New England because it only dropped 3-5" across the D.C. Area and 4-8" across Maryland but this year that's like Valhalla. Then several 1-3" clippers and 2 storms back to back late feb early march that were 3-6" around the D.C.-Balt. If you offered an ending like that this year I'll buy. Similar year, no snow early. A storm miss south. And better then some of the other years that fall in that category. 

That year was so close to being big. Coming from where we are now I would sign up for that in a minute. There was also that strong cold front with low pressure associated that turned heavy rain into heavy snow in the early morning hours. Westminster got 4-5 inches.

[PhineasC]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea it sucked south of D.C.  DT had an epic melt down that year after twice snow threats trended north.  People get pissy about the late Jan HECS for New England because it only dropped 3-5" across the D.C. Area and 4-8" across Maryland but this year that's like Valhalla. Then several 1-3" clippers and 2 storms back to back late feb early march that were 3-6" around the D.C.-Balt. If you offered an ending like that this year I'll buy. Similar year, no snow early. A storm miss south. And better then some of the other years that fall in that category. 

That year tweaked me so bad. That's when we had one big forum for all regions and I had to read post after post from those insufferable SNE dudes high-fiving and back-slapping at like 100 posts a minute.

[Jason WX]

That setup on the GFS.. too bad it's 300 hrs out 

[Heisy]

Epic ice storm on the EURO in Oklahoma, S MO, IN, IL, etc.

Woke up to check the radar real quick w/ current system and noticed that the 6z GFS looks semi interesting @ 168 hours if the cold front can beat out the trailing Shortwave

 

[Heisy]

Wow, 1048 HP over the Lakes. 

[Ger]

I know many here did not particularly care for last winter, overall. But I was fine with the one-and-done, got a solid week of giddy anticipation and tracking out of it, and the storm delivered. Boston missing out was the icing  on the cake. And I don't like severe cold and dry, so the warm stretches especially after mid Feb don't faze me. I think we get a good system in here that we have a shot at. The vast majority of winters have at least one megalopolis KU. Our winters have been very respectable since 13-14. If you toss 11-12 and 12-13 we've done well since 09-10 (so close in 10-11: mother nature jumped thru hoops to setup the blizzard to miss us).

I wonder if the warming globe is translating to warmer but also wetter and therefore potentially snowier winters for the mid Atlantic and NE,   provided we time it right with artic air. I also feel like we've experienced more all-snow events since about 2005, especially among KUs since then. But I could be blocking the mixers from memory. 

[North Balti Zen]

With the whiff the last two chances, historic futility is on the menu. I am at .25 snow with some ice on the season and warmth coming. Baltimore area has a 1973 / 2002 / 2011-12 chance. 

[eurojosh]

LR looks like one long series of apps runners. Need the trough to shift!

[WinterWxLuvr]

The gefs and eps both have enough events over the next ten to warrant interest.

[Superstorm]

The gefs and eps both have enough events over the next ten to warrant interest.

It's a battle ground between cold arctic air and very warm air south.

All depends on where that boundary sets up.

Thinks it's going to be a lot of sloppy events.

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