January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Qbo for December was 15.09, which was up from a November reading of 14.19. If we're not safe from a Qbo flip to negative/easterly February, then somebody is out to get JI.

I don't really buy the flip talk, it's at near record levels so it's probably likely to come down but not get near neutral by spring. Just pointing out that's not what we want. 

[clskinsfan]

Man. Had a really busy day today and didnt get a chance to look at anything. But after reviewing all of the runs. If that track verifies this looks like a mountain snow storm to me. I first saw the possibilities on the CMC over the past 5 days. And then on the Euro last night. It wouldnt be a heavy accumulation out here because the surface temps are garbage. But with a storm that wound up, and that track, In January. I will be shocked if it isnt snow out this way. 

If this ends up verifying. The CMC deserves some serous credit. It has had the strong storm for quite some time now.

[Round Hill WX]

59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A qbo flip would be the absolute worst thing ever that could happen. Yes a negative or east qbo would be better overall for an entire winter for blocking. But there is a very high correlation with years with a west qbo all winter and above normal snow in feb.  ender posted on it. the worst results were years with a qbo flip during winter. Somehow that seems to really screw us over late season. At this point we want it to stay west based. 

I am talking more about a QBO reversal from the strong westerlies back down towards neutral. The QBO is in completely uncharted territory this winter as it went calm(westerly winds) late summer, then the expected flip to easterly never occurred. Then for reasons still unknown, the westerlies increased significantly and we are still there now. 

I don't think we flip to easterlies until maybe this Spring but who knows. I am intrigued by a downward trend toward neutral as it has been shown to correspond with SSWs which could impact a weakening of the polar vortex. 

It's just something to watch as we try and look for something positive. 

[psuhoffman]

Euro weeklies run is meh. Not a disaster but not something exciting either.  And it's not like it totally flipped its ideas it just trended less amplified with everything and more blah. 

It does generally reload the trough into the east after about 4-5 day relax but that is then transient also. We get maybe a 5 day window then it goes really ambiguous day 30 on.

The odd thing is it does develop higher heights over the AO and nao domain and sustains them week 3 on but then week 4 on it generally builds heights everywhere under them. That seems very odd to me. There is no vortex near AK or any feature that would argue the whole half of the hemisphere would be void of any lower heights anywhere like that.  

One possible theory is that since the anomalies aren't that impressive, especially over the conus, it's a result of divergent camps. The camp with the -AO might have lower heights in the conus but nothing crazy. Then the minority camp that doesn't have a -AO has very high heights over the conus. That would all blend together to show a mean with a -AO and still high heights everywhere under it. That's one way I can think of to get that look. Certainly open to other suggestions. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said:

 

Sounds like winter cancel to me.

Wouldn't go that far. There are some periods it could snow. A good look here or there within the weeks when you look at the daily plots. And it's not a no way it can snow look throughout. We have higher heights in the arctic finally but it seems zonal under it. It's just generally a bummer and backed off but it certainly "could" snow sometime in that look. It's just a letdown compared to a run that said it "should" snow. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Wouldn't go that far. There are some periods it could snow. A good look here or there within the weeks when you look at the daily plots. And it's not a no way it can snow look throughout. We have higher heights in the arctic finally but it seems zonal under it. It's just generally a bummer and backed off but it certainly "could" snow sometime in that look. It's just a letdown compared to a run that said it "should" snow. 

On a related note, the 18Z GEFS, at the end of its run, shows signs that the PV is being forced somewhat south.  There are indications of building heights over part of Greenland, but the ridging in the northwest appears to retrograde somewhat farther west, which builds heights a bit more over the southeast.  However, the ridging in the southeast isn't overly huge from what I can tell.  I think this is more or less consistent with the GEFS' earlier runs.  All in all, not overly terrible.

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

On a related note, the 18Z GEFS, at the end of its run, shows signs that the PV is being forced somewhat south.  There are indications of building heights over part of Greenland, but the ridging in the northwest appears to retrograde somewhat farther west, which builds heights a bit more over the southeast.  However, the ridging in the southeast isn't overly huge from what I can tell.  I think this is more or less consistent with the GEFS' earlier runs.  All in all, not overly terrible.

I think a little SER might be good.  Not too much.  

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro weeklies run is meh. Not a disaster but not something exciting either.  And it's not like it totally flipped its ideas it just trended less amplified with everything and more blah. 

It does generally reload the trough into the east after about 4-5 day relax but that is then transient also. We get maybe a 5 day window then it goes really ambiguous day 30 on.

The odd thing is it does develop higher heights over the AO and nao domain and sustains them week 3 on but then week 4 on it generally builds heights everywhere under them. That seems very odd to me. There is no vortex near AK or any feature that would argue the whole half of the hemisphere would be void of any lower heights anywhere like that.  

One possible theory is that since the anomalies aren't that impressive, especially over the conus, it's a result of divergent camps. The camp with the -AO might have lower heights in the conus but nothing crazy. Then the minority camp that doesn't have a -AO has very high heights over the conus. That would all blend together to show a mean with a -AO and still high heights everywhere under it. That's one way I can think of to get that look. Certainly open to other suggestions. 

Definitely not as good a look, and more muddled later on, but overall its still decent. Mean ridge is out west pretty consistently, so thats good. No sign of reverting to the December pattern. Seems to be indicative of some conflicting signals like you suggest. Certainly would expect to see more frequent and extended periods of lower heights in the central and eastern US than its advertising, given overall western ridge and the higher heights up north, which is suggestive of -AO. That part is consistent with the previous run, but despite that we seem to only get brief episodes of lower heights down here. Mostly just average. Not worth overthinking it. Its not bad, and we will be in peak winter climo period.

eta- looking at the control run h5 height anomalies and comparing it to the ens mean at the same times during the run gives a hint that there may be disparate camps among the members. Not much to go on. Too bad we cant view all the individual members.

[Sparky]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Wow..what a storm depicted on the gfs. I'll enjoy tracking this weekend regardless of outcome. A qpf bomb..

yep, I enjoy all kind of weather not just snow like some on here.  

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Sparky said:

yep, I enjoy all kind of weather not just snow like some on here.  

Its gonna be a big rain and wind producer for sure. I still think any significant snow in our region is an outside shot and would be confined to the western highlands. That low looks to bomb out pretty good for up the coast though. Interior central and N New England, which was looking at slop/rain, now looks to get hammered with heavy snow based on the latest trends.

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Sparky said:

yep, I enjoy all kind of weather not just snow like some on here.  

It should be fun regardless to track .  But secretly I will wish for the winter precip.  I think it would need to be stronger to make the elusive cold air on its own

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, Round Hill WX said:

Day 15 EC ensemble wants to bring back the Nina look...just can't get rid of it. 

That's right around the same time that last night's runs of the GEPS and GEFS started to fail too. Sadly,  the 12z run of the GEPS looks similar to that Euro ensemble map now around the same time. Looks like we have around a week to make something work before dry or heat stick it to us.

[BTRWx]

1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

On a related note, the 18Z GEFS, at the end of its run, shows signs that the PV is being forced somewhat south.  There are indications of building heights over part of Greenland, but the ridging in the northwest appears to retrograde somewhat farther west, which builds heights a bit more over the southeast.  However, the ridging in the southeast isn't overly huge from what I can tell.  I think this is more or less consistent with the GEFS' earlier runs.  All in all, not overly terrible.

What happened to yesterday when the hype was all about the long-range signal for February?  Your synopsis sounds like that exact scenario.  It's still a long way off, but those are the exact signals we are looking for with +h5 near Greenland and Alaska.  It's much better to see the ensembles spitting out a favorable pattern before it retrogrades than the other way around.  That's how model chaos works!  

This is hour 372 from the gefs.  It's not pretty. 

But when you subtract off a week of chaos, this is what we're left with.  I'd assume this is how the epo can more than save us late in the game similar to what happened in 2014 or 2015 (I don't remember which one).

and finally, if you're really lucky the least chaos possible in the shorter-range hour 60 or so from CIPS for the Southeast region shows a serious treat as the number 1 analog at h5 almost exactly like I was speculating yesterday in the analog thread. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F060&rundt=2017011912&sort=500HGHT

BOOM

60 hr CIPS

 

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

What happened to yesterday when the hype was all about the long-range signal for February?  Your synopsis sounds like that exact scenario.  It's still a long way off, but those are the exact signals we are looking for with +h5 near Greenland and Alaska.  It's much better to see the ensembles spitting out a favorable pattern before it retrogrades than the other way around.  That's how model chaos works!  

This is hour 372 from the gefs.  It's not pretty. 

But when you subtract off a week of chaos, this is what we're left with.  I'd assume this is how the epo can more than save us late in the game similar to what happened in 2014 or 2015 (I don't remember which one).

and finally, if you're really lucky the least chaos possible in the shorter-range hour 60 or so from CIPS for the Southeast region shows a serious treat as the number 1 analog at h5 almost exactly like I was speculating yesterday in the analog thread. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F060&rundt=2017011912&sort=500HGHT

BOOM

60 hr CIPS

 

Was actually looking at the same thing.  While its WAY too far out to get cranked up about (good or bad), your right, its not a horrid pattern at 300 and beyond, more zonal, but no SE ridge, and we can play w/ that hand.  As the trends of today have suggested....we've got enough to worry about in the short term, let alone mid/long term.

Nut

 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

On a related note, the 18Z GEFS, at the end of its run, shows signs that the PV is being forced somewhat south.  There are indications of building heights over part of Greenland, but the ridging in the northwest appears to retrograde somewhat farther west, which builds heights a bit more over the southeast.  However, the ridging in the southeast isn't overly huge from what I can tell.  I think this is more or less consistent with the GEFS' earlier runs.  All in all, not overly terrible.

Yea the weeklies go that way and quickly bring a trough back. But that can't stick and hold either. Actually out to day 29 it's not bad. Then after it's just weird. Western ridge check. Ridging over the top in AO NAO domain check. Higher heights in AK check. Trough in the east...nope. Somehow it's just higher heights everywhere. As of the whole northern hemisphere is just going to be warm with no trough anywhere. I find that hard to buy in feb. something's not rights. I suspect a war within the members leading to a washed out mean that hides the details. Probably variability and a disagreement on the evolution. I suspect their useless, even more then usual, after day 29. 

[psuhoffman]

Peoples biases show up easily. Some of the same people who poo poo when day 15 looks good and say it's not believable at that range are posting about how bad day 15 looks and suddenly it's totally believable. I'm not poo pooing any options right now but 3 days ago the gefs d15 had a western trough during what is now day 12 and a deep eastern trough. 

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Peoples biases show up easily. Some of the same people who poo poo when day 15 looks good and say it's not believable at that range are posting about how bad day 15 looks and suddenly it's totally believable. I'm not poo pooing any options right now but 3 days ago the gefs d15 had a western trough during what is now day 12 and a deep eastern trough. 

Sounds like it's wise to be skeptical of all the medium and long range models this year, more so than recent years, ehh?

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Peoples biases show up easily. Some of the same people who poo poo when day 15 looks good and say it's not believable at that range are posting about how bad day 15 looks and suddenly it's totally believable. I'm not poo pooing any options right now but 3 days ago the gefs d15 had a western trough during what is now day 12 and a deep eastern trough. 

MJO is my guess.

Nut

 

[yoda]

lol 00z GFS at 93... 989 just off ORF with closed h5 trailing quickly behind

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sounds like it's wise to be skeptical of all the medium and long range models this year, more so than recent years, ehh?

I'm always skeptical but that said I'd rather it look good then bad. The day 15 look is mediocre but not awful. I just think it's funny that some will say it doesn't matter when the guidance looks good but when it's bad suddenly it's right.  

[BTRWx]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm always skeptical but that said I'd rather it look good then bad. The day 15 look is mediocre but not awful. I just think it's funny that some will say it doesn't matter when the guidance looks good but when it's bad suddenly it's right.  

[87storms]

Kinda crazy how fast the Winter seems to go when there's no snow.  Gonna be February soon.  Already noticing the days getting longer.  So far it's just been one of those Winters which isn't too surprising considering the Summer torch pattern we had.  That mild weather seems to have carried right into January for the most part.

[Scraff]

Nobody likes the King anymore??  I'm no expert, but this doesn't look half bad. Potential? 

[mdsnowlover]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Nobody likes the King anymore??  I'm no expert, but this doesn't look half bad. Potential? 

its supposed to be a big rain wind storm

[midatlanticweather]

4 minutes ago, mdsnowlover said:

its supposed to be a big rain wind storm

Yep.. Wind, rain,  cold... But not cold enough! 

[mdsnowlover]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Yep.. Wind, rain,  cold... But not cold enough! 

according to dt we dont get any coastals with snow till feb 5-4 timeframe. personally i,m not expecting much snow this year, doesnt seem to be our year

[midatlanticweather]

Wild to have a big precip maker on the 1 year anniversary of Snowzilla.. Just stinks it is rain. 

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm always skeptical but that said I'd rather it look good then bad. The day 15 look is mediocre but not awful. I just think it's funny that some will say it doesn't matter when the guidance looks good but when it's bad suddenly it's right.  

I don't know if you were referring to me exclusively with your original post, but let me tell you why I believe they should be believed in this case.

Computers are obviously guidance and not gospel. They have to be considered in light of the actual weather and patterns.  In the vernacular,  the default setting this winter has been warmer than normal and BN snowfall,  if not snowless. Moreover, medium and long range modelling has been found to be too gung-ho on blocking and cold than reality. But I note they have not been as flawed when it comes to their warm and snowless predictions.   All this being the case, it is both rational and reasonable to believe the medium range modelling(and long range for that matter) when it either backs down from a colder than normal/snowy look or progs above normal/snowless conditions. 

Several times you have mentioned that we could still get lucky and sneak in a snow event here or there. While that's possible,  I play the odds. The problem with this year has been we've had both a bad pattern and no luck, though the two are obviously related.  This also refers to what I previously said in this thread (I believe) that I will assume it won't snow until it does. What I really mean is, the preponderance of the evidence (including seasonal patterns, model accuracy,  and model trendencies) suggests that it is more likely that it won't snow significantly than it will. 

So that's why I'm inclined to believe modelling that shows warm. Now, where do we go from here?  I think the day 9-10 chance looks to be on its last leg and probably dead come 12z barring a significant change.  So then we're to the day 15+ warmup advertised on the Euro 15 map posted and GEPS. Assuming we get past that, we're mid-February? Suddenly,  we're left with hoping for an end of season bone (s) like 07 or 08 when we got a couple of 2-4" events after a horrid winter. Or maybe even a 3/09 event if we're real lucky.

I hope I'm very wrong, and leave it at that.

[mappy]

10 hours ago, mattie g said:

Can we delete crap like this?

And this post, too?

done  

[frd]

42 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't know if you were referring to me exclusively with your original post, but let me tell you why I believe they should be believed in this case.

Computers are obviously guidance and not gospel. They have to be considered in light of the actual weather and patterns.  In the vernacular,  the default setting this winter has been warmer than normal and BN snowfall,  if not snowless. Moreover, medium and long range modelling has been found to be too gung-ho on blocking and cold than reality. But I note they have not been as flawed when it comes to their warm and snowless predictions.   All this being the case, it is both rational and reasonable to believe the medium range modelling(and long range for that matter) when it either backs down from a colder than normal/snowy look or progs above normal/snowless conditions. 

Several times you have mentioned that we could still get lucky and sneak in a snow event here or there. While that's possible,  I play the odds. The problem with this year has been we've had both a bad pattern and no luck, though the two are obviously related.  This also refers to what I previously said in this thread (I believe) that I will assume it won't snow until it does. What I really mean is, the preponderance of the evidence (including seasonal patterns, model accuracy,  and model trendencies) suggests that it is more likely that it won't snow significantly than it will. 

So that's why I'm inclined to believe modelling that shows warm. Now, where do we go from here?  I think the day 9-10 chance looks to be on its last leg and probably dead come 12z barring a significant change.  So then we're to the day 15+ warmup advertised on the Euro 15 map posted and GEPS. Assuming we get past that, we're mid-February? Suddenly,  we're left with hoping for an end of season bone (s) like 07 or 08 when we got a couple of 2-4" events after a horrid winter. Or maybe even a 3/09 event if we're real lucky.

I hope I'm very wrong, and leave it at that.

Very interesting perspective. I believe signals showing the look, or tendencies of the upcoming season may show its hands months early. There were a pair of coastals in the early fall of 09. Early snowfall in December 02and other Decembers as well. 

As DT mentions you can even get a indication regarding the tropicals based on the formation of the first tropical storms, or depressions.

The West seems to have been favored all along for cold and storms.

I still wonder the early impact of the Siberian cold and its affects on the Northern Pac, cold air coming off the Continent. 

Possibly it was the cause that developed a tight gradient , and storms hitting Cailifornia are a result of this . 

We lost the significant warm blob, and thoser who counted on that were at its mercy. 

I think you really need that for a long term + PNA

The signals for cold and stormy on the East Coast never were there. 

The inconsistent nature of the weeklies have me puzzled,  but if you go with the predominate base state since Fall and go with consistency you are batting 1000.

Many highly visible privater weather companies will be graded poorly unless a Blizzard comes a calling in late Feb or early March .

I love snow and I miss it .