January Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Windman18 said:

Just for fun... this would be one heck of a back loaded winter.

that only shows about 40" in the second half... meh

I am holding out for the 60" they got here after Feb 1 in 1958.  

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's last night's run. I "think" it will look better on the 12Z run.

the euro control takes that little vort we were looking at and digs it down and spins up a southern system day 12 then bombs it up the coast day 13-14.  8-16" across the area southeast to northwest.  Track ends up a little close and places 95 east mix and dry slot but not until 10" at BWI first.  Details matter not, but it shows the potential you were pointing out with that day 10 map.  Good catch Mitch.  

[SLPressure]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

that only shows about 40" in the second half... meh

I am holding out for the 60" they got here after Feb 1 in 1958.  

My mother was taken to the hospital in a fire truck during the blizzard in February. And then I was born! Too bad I have no memory of that great snow storm...

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

that only shows about 40" in the second half... meh

I am holding out for the 60" they got here after Feb 1 in 1958.  

Careful! Someone will believe you! lol

Actually, I'm trying to figure out how it comes up with all that snow when the cold periods (post 10-12 days) are so dry. Maybe I'll just shut up and assume they are right so I can sleep better tonight.

[mitchnick]

Just now, SLPressure said:

My mother was taken to the hospital in a fire truck during the blizzard in February. And then I was born! Too bad I have no memory of that great snow storm...

I'm sure it would have just made you cry.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

And then there's the day 10 thing that probably needs less work than Monday

 

It's the first Roger Smith storm starting to show up! That's supposed to be the time frame for the first one! 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Careful! Someone will believe you! lol

Actually, I'm trying to figure out how it comes up with all that snow when the cold periods (post 10-12 days) are so dry. Maybe I'll just shut up and assume they are right so I can sleep better tonight.

One thing to consider is you do not need a cold period to get snow in every situation.  I am NOT going to argue that having a warm period is the best way to get er done so to speak but look at the next 5 days.  I am going to end the period +8 or so probably on temps, but the GFS gives me 3-5" of snow.  The euro control btw has about 2-3" northwest of Baltimore in the higher terrain with that.  Lets say, just for arguments sake, that continues to trend colder and places NW of 95 end up with 3-6" of snow.  They finish the week +8 on temps with above avg snow.  One possability is the CFS is seeing a pattern void of any real cold air, but during February and early march you can get systems that do not need an arctic airmass in place.  Feb 1987 was another example.  That 12-18" snowstorm in mid feb happened during a week that finished very warm.  It was only cold when it was snowing.  Its not the best way to do it, I am just speculating how the CFS could be coming up with that.  We get snow along the margins of the warm/wet periods with stale cold that is just cold enough given a good storm track.  

[psuhoffman]

just FYI stuff the euro ensemble mean snow for the monday/tuesday thing jumped from nothing areawide to about 1" for the far northern and western regions of this forum, and about 1/2" in baltimore and down to about IAD.  Somewhat significant.  It seems to be skewed though between some members that think we get a nice surprise snow, and most that say nada.  

ETA: 12 members have a decent snowfall for places NW of a lessburg to Reisterstown line.  5 members get snow all the way into the cities.

After that.... there is finally a weak signal of support for a storm day 9-14.  Snowfall mean jumps up again to about 2" in baltimore down to DC and about 3" up here.  Nothing to jump up and down about but its the first time we have seen a significant spike in snowfall at all on the euro and there are enough members with hits in that time range to say they generally support the solution I spelled out on the control run a few posts ago.  The euro is saying we have a window of opportunity in the day 9-14 period.  They disagree on which vort digs in and develops.  If its northern or souther stream initiated.  But enough show something to think it may be more then just a ghost.  

ETA: for the entire 15 day period 18 members manage to get at least a 2" snowfall across a significant portion of the region.  Several are pretty big hits mixed in.  Weak signal but more support then we have seen in a long time for something.  It's what I would expect a very first sign of picking up on a window to look like.  

[Ji]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

that only shows about 40" in the second half... meh

I am holding out for the 60" they got here after Feb 1 in 1958.  

JB shows these all of the time on twitter and not once has it ever verified

[Ji]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

the euro control takes that little vort we were looking at and digs it down and spins up a southern system day 12 then bombs it up the coast day 13-14.  8-16" across the area southeast to northwest.  Track ends up a little close and places 95 east mix and dry slot but not until 10" at BWI first.  Details matter not, but it shows the potential you were pointing out with that day 10 map.  Good catch Mitch.  

95 east mix and dry slot is usually Gold for me. I could care less about what happens 95 and east. when they get a good snow..we are usually fooked

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

JB shows these all of the time on twitter and not once has it ever verified

Feb 2010

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

95 east mix and dry slot is usually Gold for me. I could care less about what happens 95 and east. when they get a good snow..we are usually fooked

You would hug the euro control.  Its about 18" for you

ETA:  but that is not always true, we did totally fine Dec 2009, Feb 2010, and last January and so did 95.  But yea in some events...we can be living dangerously close to the back edge if east of 95 isn't mixing at least some during the storm.  

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

95 east mix and dry slot is usually Gold for me. I could care less about what happens 95 and east. when they get a good snow..we are usually fooked

Right.  As soon as someone says " Wes will like this run" I feel a tear well up.  I want Wes to be happy but...I can fail even under decent circumstances. 

[Ji]

 

[mitchnick]

This is interesting.....click on the link below. It's to the 500mb day 9 Euro ensembles from 12Z .

Then click on day 10....the negative anomalies actually retrograde a bit and deepen.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017011912&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=192

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is interesting.....click on the link below. It's to the 500mb day 9 Euro ensembles from 12Z .

Then click on day 10....the negative anomalies actually retrograde a bit and deepen.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017011912&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=192

the euro did have a blizzard in this time frame during yesterdays 12z so....

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is interesting.....click on the link below. It's to the 500mb day 9 Euro ensembles from 12Z .

Then click on day 10....the negative anomalies actually retrograde a bit and deepen.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017011912&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=192

yep its a loaded pattern for sure.  Hopefully we score something because things do look to relax around day 15.  It is way too far out to know yet if its just a relax and reload like the weeklies say, or if things break down and we revert to the seasonal base state.  There are no concrete signs we revert but I won't lie and say I am not skeptical of the euro evolution because it relies on some help that we have not had all year from the atlantic side.  If it is wrong about that things probably get ugly for a while once the positive effects of the MJO we are taking advantage of in the next 2 weeks wear off.  The weeklies run tonight will be telling.  All winter they have "seen" nao help then pushed it back in time as it nears 2 weeks.  I will be interested in seeing if it holds onto its idea of building a ridge bridge over the top and forcing the PV down week 3 or if it reverts to letting the PV slide back up to the pole and we go right back into a mediocre or worse pattern.  

[Round Hill WX]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

yep its a loaded pattern for sure.  Hopefully we score something because things do look to relax around day 15.  It is way too far out to know yet if its just a relax and reload like the weeklies say, or if things break down and we revert to the seasonal base state.  There are no concrete signs we revert but I won't lie and say I am not skeptical of the euro evolution because it relies on some help that we have not had all year from the atlantic side.  If it is wrong about that things probably get ugly for a while once the positive effects of the MJO we are taking advantage of in the next 2 weeks wear off.  The weeklies run tonight will be telling.  All winter they have "seen" nao help then pushed it back in time as it nears 2 weeks.  I will be interested in seeing if it holds onto its idea of building a ridge bridge over the top and forcing the PV down week 3 or if it reverts to letting the PV slide back up to the pole and we go right back into a mediocre or worse pattern.  

Day 15 EC ensemble wants to bring back the Nina look...just can't get rid of it. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Round Hill WX said:

Day 15 EC ensemble wants to bring back the Nina look...just can't get rid of it. 

My God that fast.  What do we get like less than a week of potential winter.  Wow. I was thinking things would look really good by then.    And we might flip by then.  That pattern has proven tough.  And lasting.  

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You would hug the euro control.  Its about 18" for you

ETA:  but that is not always true, we did totally fine Dec 2009, Feb 2010, and last January and so did 95.  But yea in some events...we can be living dangerously close to the back edge if east of 95 isn't mixing at least some during the storm.  

Yeah all these storms can be a bit different. Jan 96 had a lot of sleet in the middle even with temps in the low 20s. 2003 had some sleet, but did not detract at all(one of my fav storms). Dec 2009 was all snow here, as was the first storm in Feb 2010. The second one started as rain, but once it changed to snow it rapidly went full on blizzard. Last years storm dry slotted here while NW of I-95 got many hours of moderate to heavy snow.       

[Wonderdog]

37 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is interesting.....click on the link below. It's to the 500mb day 9 Euro ensembles from 12Z .

Then click on day 10....the negative anomalies actually retrograde a bit and deepen.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017011912&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=192

Beautiful ridge out west.

[showmethesnow]

36 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is interesting.....click on the link below. It's to the 500mb day 9 Euro ensembles from 12Z .

Then click on day 10....the negative anomalies actually retrograde a bit and deepen.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2017011912&fh=216&xpos=0&ypos=192

Misunderstood you before and thought you were talking the 8-10 day period. You are right about after day 10. Definitely interesting with keeping the low height anomalies just south of us for such an extended period of time. And the look has improved on the last 3 days of runs to boot. 

[Round Hill WX]

21 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

My God that fast.  What do we get like less than a week of potential winter.  Wow. I was thinking things would look really good by then.    And we might flip by then.  That pattern has proven tough.  And lasting.  

Going back to the Fall the pattern has been remarkably consistent in its variability. Atmospheric memory is legit and we are seeing it this winter. 

I'm somehat intrigued by the QBO reversal that may be happening as well as the SSW event that's forecast. It'll be interesting to see if their influence can disrupt the seasonal pattern enough to give us something favorable. 

For the Tuesday storm, if I lived west of the fall line I would be watching. Despite the mild antecedent airmass, a 985mb or below storm off the coast can create some major dynamic cooling in the heart of winter. 

 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Round Hill WX said:

Going back to the Fall the pattern has been remarkably consistent in its variability. Atmospheric memory is legit and we are seeing it this winter. 

I'm somehat intrigued by the QBO reversal that may be happening as well as the SSW event that's forecast. It'll be interesting to see if their influence can disrupt the seasonal pattern enough to give us something favorable. 

For the Tuesday storm, if I lived west of the fall line I would be watching. Despite the mild antecedent airmass, a 985mb or below storm off the coast can create some major dynamic cooling in the heart of winter. 

 

It's close.  I mean 5 degrees would make all the difference.  West of I 81 should be enthused.  I would need a 979 to really think I have a shot.  Only 20 miles west of the fall line for me

[osfan24]

31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah all these storms can be a bit different. Jan 96 had a lot of sleet in the middle even with temps in the low 20s. 2003 had some sleet, but did not detract at all(one of my fav storms). Dec 2009 was all snow here, as was the first storm in Feb 2010. The second one started as rain, but once it changed to snow it rapidly went full on blizzard. Last years storm dry slotted here while NW of I-95 got many hours of moderate to heavy snow.       

Surprisingly I remember very little sleet with all of those. I got some sleet in the 2003 storm at the very end (I was in College Park at the time) and I remember some sleet with the Blizzard of 96. All three of the 2009-2010 storms were straight snow all the way through for me, and last year's blizzard was all snow as well, though we were basically getting snizzle all morning into the early afternoon while areas to the west were getting pummeled.

[Maestrobjwa]

48 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

Day 15 EC ensemble wants to bring back the Nina look...just can't get rid of it. 

If that were to happen, winter totals may be in trouble then! The way things have been going around here this season, I have doubts about whether we'll be able to score in only 2 weeks....I feel like we need a month's worth of a good pattern to just get one good storm, lol I hope that ensemble is wrong!

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

Going back to the Fall the pattern has been remarkably consistent in its variability. Atmospheric memory is legit and we are seeing it this winter. 

I'm somehat intrigued by the QBO reversal that may be happening as well as the SSW event that's forecast. It'll be interesting to see if their influence can disrupt the seasonal pattern enough to give us something favorable. 

For the Tuesday storm, if I lived west of the fall line I would be watching. Despite the mild antecedent airmass, a 985mb or below storm off the coast can create some major dynamic cooling in the heart of winter. 

 

A qbo flip would be the absolute worst thing ever that could happen. Yes a negative or east qbo would be better overall for an entire winter for blocking. But there is a very high correlation with years with a west qbo all winter and above normal snow in feb.  ender posted on it. the worst results were years with a qbo flip during winter. Somehow that seems to really screw us over late season. At this point we want it to stay west based. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If that were to happen, winter totals may be in trouble then! The way things have been going around here this season, I have doubts about whether we'll be able to score in only 2 weeks....I feel like we need a month's worth of a good pattern to just get one good storm, lol I hope that ensemble is wrong!

Nothing has locked in long this year. A better hope is the relax is short and we reload for one more go during peak climo mid feb. score an event in the next two weeks and one later feb and we avoid disaster. 

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A qbo flip would be the absolute worst thing ever that could happen. Yes a negative or east qbo would be better overall for an entire winter for blocking. But there is a very high correlation with years with a west qbo all winter and above normal snow in feb.  ender posted on it. the worst results were years with a qbo flip during winter. Somehow that seems to really screw us over late season. At this point we want it to stay west based. 

The QBO flip winters sucking is like the La Nada winters sucking.  Nobody really knows why either one seems not to work out for snow and cold.

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A qbo flip would be the absolute worst thing ever that could happen. Yes a negative or east qbo would be better overall for an entire winter for blocking. But there is a very high correlation with years with a west qbo all winter and above normal snow in feb.  ender posted on it. the worst results were years with a qbo flip during winter. Somehow that seems to really screw us over late season. At this point we want it to stay west based. 

Qbo for December was 15.09, which was up from a November reading of 14.19. If we're not safe from a Qbo flip to negative/easterly February, then somebody is out to get JI.