wxdude64 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: So if it trends toward deepening a storm like in the Day After Tomorrow, we have a chance? Yes, and I'll be near the closest Wendy's.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The trend towards colder the last few days isnt because the cold is coming from anywhere. Its more that the models are trending the entire airmass a bit colder as we move closer. Some of the recent colder look is due to a shift towards a more consolidated well organized system with a perfect H5 pass. That places the ccb over us along with the crashing heights under the H5 low and combined leads to enough convective cooling to get us close. To get the last 1-2 degree drop I would need, or 4-5 you would is going to be tough though. We are already talking about a pretty perfect track here so not much can improve there. We would need a slightly more amplified system perhaps. Or simple model error, like they are too warm by a couple degrees, that is not crazy. The low is pretty strong but not maxed out in potential so a slightly stronger system is possible. NOT likely but possible. The models could be underestimating the cooling, a bit more high pressure building up to the north under the ridging, a bit more convective cooling....eehh do I think its likely NO but within the realm of possibility yes. Thanks - you spelled out what I was getting at with the PA interloper. Yes, the storm could be stronger, but, that's not something to usually hang ones hat on... You have a chance, rooting for you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think part of the "cold" stuff is the fact that it is the heart of winter and cold is pretty much the baseline. It's pretty easy to get to "cold" even in an above avg temp setup. yea, the airmass isnt going to be cold, any real cold isnt coming until after the day 7 system passes and the front clears. This would be one of those setups where its 45 degrees before and after but temps crash to 33 with wet snow during heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This happens everytime were having a bad period and an event comes along that threatens to split the forum into have's and have nots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This happens everytime were having a bad period and an event comes along that threatens to split the forum into have's and have nots. True. I'm just glad there is ANYTHING to track at all, whether it comes to fruition or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Those with Euro precip maps, anything interesting come day 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Those with Euro precip maps, anything interesting come day 10? Maybe some flurries day 9 from a clipper. Thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Those with Euro precip maps, anything interesting come day 10? Sadly no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just now, PaEasternWX said: Maybe some flurries day 9 from a clipper. Thats about it. Heck of a ridge building out west and that trough in the east looks like it has potential with what's going on further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This happens everytime were having a bad period and an event comes along that threatens to split the forum into have's and have nots. Yeah think back 2 weeks. Imagine what it will be like if western areas get hit and the cities miss out again. This place will implode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 16 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Yes, and I'll be near the closest Wendy's.......... Exactly. Someone should see what old Bilbo from LotR thinks about this situation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah think back 2 weeks. Imagine what it will be like if western areas get hit and the cities miss out again. This place will implode. but that is totally expected for western areas to do better...those with elevation...we have such a large coverage area for this forum. Such a big difference between Frederick and Fredericksburg for example. it will always be this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: but that is totally expected for western areas to do better...those with elevation...we have such a large coverage area for this forum. Such a big difference between Frederick and Fredericksburg for example. it will always be this way. This is a large subforum with disparate climo in winter for sure. I was more speaking of missing the last one to the east and then possibly this one to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 The Euro and GFS are pretty much doing what we need to see if there is any chance for early next week. Closing off the 500's and 700mb's and trying to stack the low just to the SE. Whether it is enough is still to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: The Euro and GFS are pretty much doing what we need to see if there is any chance for early next week. Closing off the 500's and 700mb's and trying to stack the low just to the SE. Whether it is enough is still to be seen. Yes, it will have to be 'perfect' to be a hit for anybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Heck of a ridge building out west and that trough in the east looks like it has potential with what's going on further north. It is definitely set up as a "something could pop" easily pattern. That little system digging down the backside could trend into something pretty easily. Its a window I am keeping an eye on. Either for a northern stream system to amplify enough to get us a small event or perhaps something to get picked up from the STJ (less likely). But its worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It is definitely set up as a "something could pop" easily pattern. That little system digging down the backside could trend into something pretty easily. Its a window I am keeping an eye on. Either for a northern stream system to amplify enough to get us a small event or perhaps something to get picked up from the STJ (less likely). But its worth watching. yep agree (YAAYYYYYY!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It is definitely set up as a "something could pop" easily pattern. That little system digging down the backside could trend into something pretty easily. Its a window I am keeping an eye on. Either for a northern stream system to amplify enough to get us a small event or perhaps something to get picked up from the STJ (less likely). But its worth watching. That's a setup where you really don't want to see something pop up in the long range because you know inevitably the timing of the pieces of energy the model is keying on will be off and we will lose it. On the other hand this is also a setup where something could pop up out of the blue in the short range and verify as the models get a better handle on the moving pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: That's a setup where you really don't want to see something pop up in the long range because you know inevitably the timing of the pieces of energy the model is keying on will be off and we will lose it. On the other hand this is also a setup where something could pop up out of the blue in the short range and verify as the models get a better handle on the moving pieces of energy. This is a link to day 8 5H map. If you click through to day 10, the trough along the coast is looking better and seemingly sticking around waiting for something. That trailing vort on the back side could be what the doctor ordered. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2017011912&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Nice to see some good signs, even with the early week system next week. I'm not expecting anything much to trend better for the metro areas to get anything, but it's still interesting to see how much colder the models are indicating now. As for a possible system behind that in the Euro...well, worth watching for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 both the GFS and euro have snow for Leesburg lol. although the euro snow is like a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ji said: both the GFS and euro have snow for Leesburg lol. although the euro snow is like a dusting What quadrant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 58 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Remember that storm in the 2000' when it snowed in Louisiana and Alabama from a bombing low that created a cold air bubble while everyone else was hot. I remember seeing this circle of blue on the map... This one is my favorite, but I'm a newbie. From Nov 1st 2014. A few inches of snow as far south as Columbia, SC and feet for the Great Smokies while it was about 50+ degrees in every other direction. DCA had a high of 54 and low of 48 that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 32 minutes ago, mitchnick said: This is a link to day 8 5H map. If you click through to day 10, the trough along the coast is looking better and seemingly sticking around waiting for something. That trailing vort on the back side could be what the doctor ordered. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2017011912&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=0 Looking at the 00Z EPS for day 8 and 10. IMO Day 8 shows a nice setup for having a piece of northern stream energy diving south and hopefully timing with a southern piece. The setup itself also provides a larger window for this timing to occur then you would normally see. The one hangup though is that there is not to much room for amplification so we would probably see pedestrian low with a somewhat suppressed solution as well as progressive. And we see that at day 10 as the southeast trough gets beat down and the lower heights on the 500's show up maybe a touch farther south then what we would probably want to see. This setup could possible result in a somewhat modest event if we were to see a phase but would probably be more so in our southern regions. Edit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 15 minutes ago, TSG said: This one is my favorite, but I'm a newbie. From Nov 1st 2014. A few inches of snow as far south as Columbia, SC and feet for the Great Smokies while it was about 50+ degrees in every other direction. DCA had a high of 54 and low of 48 that day. Wow, it literally looks like someone dropped a lead weight right into the height field there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 28 minutes ago, Ji said: both the GFS and euro have snow for Leesburg lol. although the euro snow is like a dusting Fake news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Just for fun... this would be one heck of a back loaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking at the 00Z EPS for day 8 and 10. IMO Day 8 shows a nice setup for having a piece of northern stream energy diving south and hopefully timing with a southern piece. The setup itself also provides a larger window for this timing to occur then you would normally see. The one hangup though is that there is not to much room for amplification so we would probably see pedestrian low with a somewhat suppressed solution as well as progressive. And we see that at day 10 as the southeast trough gets beat down and the lower heights on the 500's show up maybe a touch farther south then what we would probably want to see. This setup could possible result in a somewhat modest event if we were to see a phase but would probably be more so in our southern regions. Edit: That's last night's run. I "think" it will look better on the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's last night's run. I "think" it will look better on the 12Z run. Yeah, it is. The new one wasn't up yet and I would rather use the ensembles instead of the ops for the longer ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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