WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Then do you think these frames look like crap? Because they are the times just before and after that gefs look you hate and show essentially the same thing. But we loved them as part of the weeklies because they lead to this a few days later... so why is that same look suddenly something to panic over? Like I said it's a relax but nothings off yet from how the pattern was supposed to evolve to that good look feb 5-15th on the weeklies. They relax again feb 15-25 then reload everything late feb into march. I'm not saying it's going to happen but if we want to hope it does the gefs isn't showing anything is off yet For whatever reason, he thinks everything looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Oh...lol, I should still take my own advice and relax a bit though. As for those progs, yea annoying. The larger problem is the totally shot temperature profiles over the CONUS leading in. The next issue is how the system evolves. Given the first problem we would need everything to line up perfect. Ideally the system to bomb just to our east. The storm initially goes west then reorganizes east but as it goes through that process there really isnt a strong organized band of precip to the west. On the euro the CCB redevelops to our northeast. Its a disorganized mess as it crosses our area. We would need the system to be intensifying and heights to be crashing over our area to have a shot. GGEM was closer to that solution then the euro. I definitely see where we have issues with the temp profiles. It's just so frustrating to have a bombed-out low - even if somewhat flawed in how things progress - happen during the coldest time of the year and yet we still miss out on frozen. I get it...but holy crap is it frustrating! I'm enjoying your posts, by the way. Very enlightening, and I like the positive vibes. We've sucked so far trhis year and look to continue that streak for at least a bit longer. There's no harm in trying to see some sort of bright side to the pattern shift, even if doing so has us sneaking up on the beginnings of spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Then do you think these frames look like crap? Because they are the times just before and after that gefs look you hate and show essentially the same thing. But we loved them as part of the weeklies because they lead to this a few days later... so why is that same look suddenly something to panic over? Like I said it's a relax but nothings off yet from how the pattern was supposed to evolve to that good look feb 5-15th on the weeklies. They relax again feb 15-25 then reload everything late feb into march. I'm not saying it's going to happen but if we want to hope it does the gefs isn't showing anything is off yet lol no panic I said the end of the GEPS and GEFS looked lousy. I still think they do. But that doesn't mean they won't change. All of last night's runs were crappy for the foreseeable future. You may disagree. OK, so does that mean you need to seemingly take offense and have to convince me otherwise? I sure hope not, but I'm not certain if that's not what has happened. In short, I'm not excited by anything I'm seeing that would make me believe our snow chances will meaningfully increase inside of la-la land. Colder....yeah. But as Betsy Ross said when asked to sew the American flag.......so what! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 46 minutes ago, mattie g said: Not you! I'm referring to the maps of a bombed low in an almost-perfect location bringing us all a cold rain! Yeah I can't even look at maps of the storm early next week. It's just like ripping my heart out. Literally any other winter that's a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah I can't even look at maps of the storm early next week. It's just like ripping my heart out. Literally any other winter that's a blizzard. 97-98 had some glorious looking coastal lows with a seemingly great 500mb pattern that gave us big rains (although the mountains got some heavy snows). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 15 minutes ago, mitchnick said: lol no panic I said the end of the GEPS and GEFS looked lousy. I still think they do. But that doesn't mean they won't change. All of last night's runs were crappy for the foreseeable future. You may disagree. OK, so does that mean you need to seemingly take offense and have to convince me otherwise? I sure hope not, but I'm not certain if that's not what has happened. In short, I'm not excited by anything I'm seeing that would make me believe our snow chances will meaningfully increase inside of la-la land. Colder....yeah. But as Betsy Ross said when asked to sew the American flag.......so what! First of all I don't take offense, so I apologize if you think I came off that way. We are having lively but substantive discussion and while we may disagree I in no way take any issue with your points. Second, I do not disagree that the particular time period you are talking about (day 15-16) looks less then ideal taken as a static point of time without context. I do think the look is not as hostile as you may think, we could possibly score a system along the boundary of the SE ridge in that look, but its not a great look by any stretch. My issue was with your statement that it was leading to the Cansips. THe cansips goes on the torch the east the entire month. I was saying that is not a foregone conclusion. The euro weeklies have that same look Feb 3-4 and roll forward into a good pattern for most of the rest of winter, minus a short relax around Feb 18-24. It is going to depend where that PV ends up. If it sinks south enough to allow ridging to form above it and get stuck in a good location to suppress the pattern under it (force the trough into the east) we will be good. If that PV wants to slide right back up into Greenland like it has all freaking winter then we are probably done for in terms of hopes of any sustained better pattern. My only point is as of right now, seeing what we do day 15, there is no indication either way yet. If we start to see signs the PV wants to go back towards the pole we are in trouble. Either way I am in no way upset at you. While I have a more positive tone to my analsis of the pattern and its progression you're claims are made respectfully and backed up with substance and your concerns about persistence and the craptastic nature of the winter so far are valid. Hopefully you do not take my advocacy of possible alternative outcomes to the pattern progression as a sign of disrespect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 im getting sick of talking about patterns...the fact is...there are no hint of any snowsstorms showing up on the modeling that we can track even as we enter this "new pattern" Time is running out..sick of talking about an okay pattern or we can work with this. its likely not going to snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 24 minutes ago, mattie g said: I definitely see where we have issues with the temp profiles. It's just so frustrating to have a bombed-out low - even if somewhat flawed in how things progress - happen during the coldest time of the year and yet we still miss out on frozen. I get it...but holy crap is it frustrating! I'm enjoying your posts, by the way. Very enlightening, and I like the positive vibes. We've sucked so far trhis year and look to continue that streak for at least a bit longer. There's no harm in trying to see some sort of bright side to the pattern shift, even if doing so has us sneaking up on the beginnings of spring! Thanks... I don't think I am "positive" as much as I simply take each threat and pattern as they come without letting past fails influence my analysis in the future. Each threat is its own entity. And while some seasonal trends and patterns are important putting too much emphasis on that can blind you to what may be different about the future. For instance, even though we failed both times, we failed a totally different way in early January then we did in mid december. Yes both didnt produce snow, but it wasnt seasonal trends that was the problem. But I am not blind to just how bad this year has been. Its sucked hard. And I did say back in December that there were some really bad signs that opened the door to the possibility of one of those total dud winters this year. But I also think chance and chaos play a part and even our absolute worst winters had opportunities and to get those really depressing totals took both a bad pattern and bad luck. Plenty of years with just as awful an overall pattern ended up with 12" instead of 3. We miss that one storm in Feb 95 and that was like 2002. We miss that one storm in Feb 97 and that year was another 2002. We miss that storm in March 99 and that was 2002. Likewise we get one of those storms that missed us just south or north during a decent pattern late Dec into early Jan in 2002 and we don't remember that as anything particularly awful right now. That is the fight were in right now. Avoid the total crap result. While I am disappointed in the results so far, and make no guarantees we do better the rest of the way, I also see enough signs of hope in the guidance to think we still have a chance to salvage something from here on out. But when I think its really over and its time to put the final nail in the coffin of this train-wreck year rest assured I will bring out the hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 97-98 had some glorious looking coastal lows with a seemingly great 500mb pattern that gave us big rains (although the mountains got some heavy snows). yea that winter was like a 5 degrees better airmass all winter from being epic. We did mid 30's and heavy rain so well that year. Up here was fringed over and over and over. Just cold enough to eek out a couple inches of wet snow front or back end on most of those storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: yea that winter was like a 5 degrees better airmass all winter from being epic. We did mid 30's and heavy rain so well that year. Up here was fringed over and over and over. Just cold enough to eek out a couple inches of wet snow front or back end on most of those storms. Yup. It had many of the classic strong Nino signs with big coastal lows. Just needed some better airmasses and we might remember it as a 09/10-lite year with 2-3 MECS/HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: yea that winter was like a 5 degrees better airmass all winter from being epic. We did mid 30's and heavy rain so well that year. Up here was fringed over and over and over. Just cold enough to eek out a couple inches of wet snow front or back end on most of those storms. Some of you amaze me with your memories of specific winters. I feel like I am pretty good remembering certain winters, and maybe I'm just younger so I don't remember some of the stuff in the 90's as well. I was only 10 for the Superstorm and don't remember it. The storm that really got me into weather was the Blizzard of 96. And then I have a really good memory of the big storms in 2000 and 2003, and I remember every big storm since then obviously. And I remember the epic winters of 1995-1996, 2002-2003, 2009-2010, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015, but some of your memories of other winters and small storms is just incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Hmmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 It seems real close this run... Hell of a change IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 17 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Some of you amaze me with your memories of specific winters. I feel like I am pretty good remembering certain winters, and maybe I'm just younger so I don't remember some of the stuff in the 90's as well. I was only 10 for the Superstorm and don't remember it. The storm that really got me into weather was the Blizzard of 96. And then I have a really good memory of the big storms in 2000 and 2003, and I remember every big storm since then obviously. And I remember the epic winters of 1995-1996, 2002-2003, 2009-2010, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015, but some of your memories of other winters and small storms is just incredible. Keeping an event log helps. Looking over past stats like from this website also helps: http://www.jhuapl.edu/weather/education/ACONdata.html Or Ray Martin's winter storm page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I have to admit I like the certainty of lots of of rain with that big low coming up the coast. No Lucy taking the football after 10 days of tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 TT likes I-81 corridor to just west of teh BR for decent snows... 4" or so per 12z GFS... interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 12z GGEM... interesting as well for cold rain... but it does get the 1320dm line down through DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GGEM... interesting as well better than gfs? also btw this still has 100 hours to trend in our favor... or not. You would think there is time for this to shift another 50-100 miles to affect us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 minute ago, PaEasternWX said: better than gfs. also btw this still has 100 hours to trend in our favor... or not. You would think there is time for this to shift another 50-100 miles to affect us. Actually I think the GFS is better than the GGEM run on 12z.. and to trend for even a snowflake around here would be a miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 It obviously won't happen, but the cold air has trended insanely far south with this storm in a relatively short period of time over the past few days. If that trend did continue, this would be very interesting. I'm sure it won't though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Not you! I'm referring to the maps of a bombed low in an almost-perfect location bringing us all a cold rain! What perfect timing to read the boards. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hmmm.. Not even close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 6 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Not even close! It closer for sure. Pattern changes aren't light switches. They are dimmer switches. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Meanwhile the GFS is a clipper parade...none of which look all that promising other than keeping it cold...I guess one could slow down maybe...but its a virtual conveyer belt of clippers...but if you like cold and dry then this is your money run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 16 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Not even close! For you, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 25 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It obviously won't happen, but the cold air has trended insanely far south with this storm in a relatively short period of time over the past few days. If that trend did continue, this would be very interesting. I'm sure it won't though. There's some science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 With over 10 days to go, this certainly has the chance to trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Tantalizing run for the hills on this run of the GFS. If you go to this link below, the 96 hrs. 850 temps off the 12Z run and then click on the Left Arrow where it says "Prev. Runs", you can see how the colder temps from the Northeast have made their way closer to the Mid Atlantic versus the 2 previous runs. Like somebody said, we've got another 100 hrs. of trending to go! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=T850&runtime=2017011912&fh=96&xpos=0&ypos=384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 97-98 had some glorious looking coastal lows with a seemingly great 500mb pattern that gave us big rains (although the mountains got some heavy snows). Huge southern Apps snowstorm Jan 26-28, 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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