BTRWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like some perturbation of the PV occurring, but AO looks to remain positive and man is that is a super +NAO on the eps into early Feb. What's good about that though is the NAO at range has not been very accurate. Bad news is that can lag enough to when we may need it most to go the other way. It's too bad those nao prediction charts aren't archived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Just now, BTRWx said: What's good about that though is the NAO at range has not been very accurate. Bad news is that can lag enough to when we may need it most to go the other way. Models have not been accurate when the NAO is forecast to be negative with any significance or duration. That I will agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like some perturbation of the PV occurring, but AO looks to remain positive and man is that is a super +NAO on the eps into early Feb. Just look how often the Arctic Oscillation is being modeled to oscillate in the near-term! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 This year may not end as bad as 01/02, but it is the worst winter for Dca/Bwi and surrounding areas since that year through January 25th. That said, the day 10 thing does need to be watched since there will finally be some cold air around and a rather nasty and impregnable block north of the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2017 Author Share Posted January 18, 2017 Fact of the matter is that this year to date is still better than last. Granted, last year is going to get a big boost in the coming days. We will just have to wait and see what this year can do after that. It has a head start. After the big storm last year most of us got basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 36 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Yeah, no. This is an own backyard game, and if we get shutout from here - we are historically awful. It is not mitigated by others places doing ok. I agree when evaluating our winter. I care about imby too. But when evaluating a pattern or predicting future outcomes it matters. I would be even more pessimistic about our chances of others around us weren't getting snow. So either they have been lucky or we're unlucky or a bit of both. Sometimes these things even out over time. Maybe one 4-8" storm hits across our area and nowhere else gets more snow then by the end we all sucked equally. Or maybe we have been unlucky and everyone gets more snow from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 34 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like some perturbation of the PV occurring, but AO looks to remain positive and man is that is a super +NAO on the eps into early Feb. There is a lag. I wouldn't expect to see the h5 results until maybe week 3. Plus those things can come on suddenly. Models have a hard time picking up in that until it's pretty close sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: This year may not end as bad as 01/02, but it is the worst winter for Dca/Bwi and surrounding areas since that year through January 25th. That said, the day 10 thing does need to be watched since there will finally be some cold air around and a rather nasty and impregnable block north of the Great Lakes. The wave that goes south before the unicorn storm needs to be watched also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There is a lag. I wouldn't expect to see the h5 results until maybe week 3. Plus those things can come on suddenly. Models have a hard time picking up in that until it's pretty close sometimes. Yeah if there is going to be an impact it will likely be mid Feb onward, which has been hinted at on the weeklies. I was just commenting on the impressive +NAO at around day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 44 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I like it! I meant 93-94. oops. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah if there is going to be an impact it will likely be mid Feb onward, which has been hinted at on the weeklies. I was just commenting on the impressive +NAO at around day 15. Definitely the period to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah if there is going to be an impact it will likely be mid Feb onward, which has been hinted at on the weeklies. I was just commenting on the impressive +NAO at around day 15. Yea I think feb 10-15 is probably our best bet for that. And that's when we may need it as the effects of the mjo wave fade and the pna might try to relax. We would need something to hand off to or else we would relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I meant 93-94. oops. lol Are you sure? lol https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/compday.xES7n680GW.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I meant 93-94. oops. lol It's amazing though what a few miles can do. That winter had the sharpest gradient in the same spot all winter. I was in Herndon va on the wrong side but would visit my cousin near harpers ferry and they had good snowpack all winter. Looking at records here even though it was only about avg snowfall I would have loved it as they had snowcover all winter early January into march. 2014 the gradient was further south. But a strong enough epo and we have a shot but it can fail if the se ridge is too much. But I totally agree getting some AO nao love is a better way to succeed here. Relying on everything else to overcome the nao is a losing bet usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Looks like some clipper love on happy hour gfs. At least that could stop the no snow before feb discussion. ETA: hmm on second look did the gfs just take a huge step towards the euro day 10 storm. It initiates it with a northern stream vort instead of the stj but it's the same general idea of developing something on the tail of the trough digs in and amplifies. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks like some clipper love on happy hour gfs. At least that could stop the no snow before feb discussion. ETA: hmm on second look did the gfs just take a huge step towards the euro day 10 20 storm. It initiates it with a northern stream vort instead of the stj but it's the same general idea of developing something on the tail of the trough digs in and amplifies. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 18 minutes ago, BTRWx said: Are you sure? lol https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/composites/compday.xES7n680GW.gif Yea, I'm sure. That's not really a -EPO on the composite you linked. Do a JF composite from 94. THAT is a major -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I'm sure. That's not really a -EPO on the composite you linked. Do a JF composite from 94. THAT is a major -EPO. I was looking for similar setups to our current pattern and 95 h5 actually looked close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 45 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I was looking for similar setups to our current pattern and 95 h5 actually looked close. 95 has been a top analog to this for a while now. Similar with not much snow also. We could take heart that at least 95 produced a pretty good storm early Feb. Nothing else but right now I would take one big early Feb snow and roll the dice the rest of winter. As for my comments about the 18z GFS, it doesnt look remotely the same at the surface, but the GFS just shifted to the idea of several vorts digging down around the backside of the trough in the day 9-12 period. The GFS is all northern stream. The euro had an stj system that was captured and phased in. Yea the STJ option is way better for us, but interestingly I noted that Feb 1996 has been showing up in the GFS analogs lately and that was an example of a northern stream vort in a similar setup that bombed out in time for us. But yea thats is a riskier proposition and usually a more modest small snowfall is what we should expect from that setup. Either way I think the GFS at H5 took a step towards the euro (and GGEM) idea of a more amplified trough in that time period. Nothing went boom this run but a window of opportunity may have just showed itself. ETA: one of the big differences in the evolution of the pattern day 6 in is how the GFS and EC handle the first system. The euro bombs that out and really hangs the H5 around the east coast, which suppresses everything behind it initially. The GFS manages to dampen that out then cut a system behind it. From there the GFS bombs the cutter into New England and really drives the boundary south behind it which squashes any STJ system and thus everything is northern stream dominant from there on. The euro by squashing the second system day 7/8 then leaves room for something to come across the south and be captured by the digging northern stream trough. The differences day 5 lead to the dominoes falling later on. Once that is resolved we will have a better look at the day 10 window. FWIW the GFS has been trending towards the euro on that day 5 system evolution for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: This year does not even come close to those because places in NNE, parts of NY/PA and the Lakes are doing okay. Those years the entire country was basically shutout. This is more like a 96-97 or 92-93 where some places did miserably but many areas of the nation had a snowy cold winter Disagree - I think you are being awfully generous with respect to this winter. Only the far northern plains, UP of Michigan, and NNE have done respectably well. Here in metro Chicago, we basically had 10 days of winter from December 5-15 or so...and we've essentially seen zero snow since. Absolutely zero clippers. Even in last year's super Nino, we had 2-3" of glacier snow cover during all of January. In fact, I'd argue that this winter has been worse than last winter IMBY...which I couldn't have ever imagined. Parts of northern WI were in the upper 40s over the past few days...about 30 degrees above normal. This winter has been unacceptable, especially relative to what was expected. There is no other way to put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I like the day 10 period - nice ridge trough setup on gfs and we could score one of two ways - a northern stream wave digging far enough west to give us something decent or a southern stream unicorn like the euro shows - we definitely have a window coming into range now. At least something to track the next 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, I'm sure. That's not really a -EPO on the composite you linked. Do a JF composite from 94. THAT is a major -EPO. You were right about the dry look but sneakily the day 10-12 look has been trending better. This look isn't that bad. That trough trends any more amplified and we're in business. The ridging in western Canada is trending better too. Not surprisinh given that look the new 8-14 day analogs are suddenly littered with big snows. feb 96 miller b feb 95 ku Jan 2005 miller b feb 2007 ice storm feb 2006 mecs not sure what happened in the cities but the 1961 date is sandwiched between a 16" and 5" storm here. And several of the other dates were small snows like 1963 and 1954. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You were right about the dry look but sneakily the day 10-12 look has been trending better. This look isn't that bad. That trough trends any more amplified and we're in business. The ridging in western Canada is trending better too. Not surprisinh given that look the new 8-14 day analogs are suddenly littered with big snows. feb 96 miller b feb 95 ku Jan 2005 miller b feb 2007 ice storm feb 2006 mecs not sure what happened in the cities but the 1961 date is sandwiched between a 16" and 5" storm here. And several of the other dates were small snows like 1963 and 1954. Just as I said of the Euro 10 day, that's a nasty and impregnable block north of the Great Lakes. It (the vort) "almost" has to go to our south. Exactly where will obviously be the ultimate question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, beavis1729 said: Disagree - I think you are being awfully generous with respect to this winter. Only the far northern plains, UP of Michigan, and NNE have done respectably well. Here in metro Chicago, we basically had 10 days of winter from December 5-15 or so...and we've essentially seen zero snow since. Absolutely zero clippers. Even in last year's super Nino, we had 2-3" of glacier snow cover during all of January. In fact, I'd argue that this winter has been worse than last winter IMBY...which I couldn't have ever imagined. Parts of northern WI were in the upper 40s over the past few days...about 30 degrees above normal. This winter has been unacceptable, especially relative to what was expected. There is no other way to put it. and a couple spots in NW pa have done ok, but have not held any snow for more than a few days. While I realize that many dont expect the snow to stick for days on end, the winter sports hobbyists up here have been starving like many others. thank goodness for snow making at ski slopes. Snowmobiling has been basically non existent. Heres to better days. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Just as I said of the Euro 10 day, that's a nasty and impregnable block north of the Great Lakes. It (the vort) "almost" has to go to our south. Exactly where will obviously be the ultimate question. Yep good call. If it has anything from the stj to work with will say a lot about our fate too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Only because I've never seen +8's before on this map... https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 You know, I would like to think that the day 10 on the 12z would happen but there is absolutely no support on ensembles from what I saw. Probably gone by 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 30 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Only because I've never seen +8's before on this map... https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif Bet they were there in March 2012! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 the gfs individual members show basically nada east of the apps days 9-16 a couple light hits - was hoping the ensemble would be more bullish on this period - perhaps because our main energy is likely to come from the northern stream and the models probably wont do well with that until it gets into shorter range. love the map psu posted ahowing the nice ridge and trough in the 10-12 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 22 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Bet they were there in March 2012! Meh, I have no recollection how warm that month was anywhere. Probably because I subconsciously blocked it out. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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